Matt Brocklebank previews the big betting races on the Flat and over jumps this Saturday, with bets at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.
Value Bet tips: Saturday October 22
1pt win Ancestral Land in 1.50 Newbury at 16/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports) – 12/1 minimum
1pt e.w. Secret Guest in 3.00 Doncaster at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3) – no lower
1pt win Silver Sheen in 3.50 Cheltenham at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – 8/1 minimum
1pt win Count D’Orsay in 4.10 Doncaster at 8/1 (General) – no lower
Epictetus to make Rodin pull out the stops
Rarely the easiest Saturday to produce a profit and I’ve no major arguments with the state of the betting for Doncaster’s Group One Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes, in which the exciting Auguste Rodin bids to rubber-stamp his Classic credentials for 2023.
Holes can obviously be picked in the bare form of his Leopardstown success over Irish Champions Weekend, but another look at the replay (below in full) shows he was only going through the motions once finding top gear inside the final couple of furlongs.
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Bred to be a real champion at three, Aidan O’Brien’s colt handled the soft ground with ease last month and should get a truly-run race thanks to stablemate Salt Lake City and all-the-way Newbury winner Stormbuster likely to force the early pace.
Epictetus is arguably the value call against the favourite, being a twice-raced son of Kingman who – on official figures at least – just about sets the form standard based on his Autumn Stakes second behind Silver Knott.
Silver Knott, one of Charlie Appleby’s two-year-olds bound for the Breeders’ Cup in a fortnight’s time, already ranks among the leading Derby hopes for next spring and it was hard to knock the attitude shown by Epictetus in going down by just a neck on the Rowley Mile.
The standout 4/1 (bet365) about him looks perfectly fair – if not an absolute gift – and there are more appealing betting races elsewhere.
I'd rather take a dart against O’Brien’s penalised Aesop’s Fables in the Listed Carlsberg Marstons Doncaster Stakes as I’m far from convinced he’ll be happiest on soft ground.
The Ballydoyle yard is double-handed here too and I get the market support for Hispanic who improved massively for the addition of blinkers when winning his maiden on easy ground at the Curragh just last week.
Whether the headgear works again nine days on is another matter and the one who catches the eye as being potentially over-priced is Bryan Smart’s SECRET GUEST.
He's only a maiden winner too and will need to raise his game a lot to be competitive, but there are reasons to be positive on that score, while what he was showing in the summer can be marked up as well.
The debut third at Carlisle could hardly have been more eyecatching as he was drawn 13 of 13, fell out of the stalls and flew home to be just about in front a stride after the line. He was conceding the front two – who were drawn three and six and raced prominently throughout – 2lb and 5lb respectively so emerged from that race as the best horse on the day.
Despite copping another stinking draw (12) over the notoriously tricky five furlongs at Beverley second time out in July, the son of Havana Grey delivered on the debut promise to win a shade snugly from Tattersall, who had the perfect pitch throughout from stall one.
Tattersall has been beaten three times since, admittedly, but he is rated 79 and ran in Listed company recently so I don’t think it’s form to be crabbing in a hurry. Secret Guest has subsequently spent some time off although I think that’s one of the main reasons we’re getting such an inflated price here.
A 47,000-guinea purchase at the Craven Breeze-Ups, he’s a half-brother to Nesr Shalghoda, who won over six and a half furlongs in France, suggesting this distance should play to his strengths, and I’d fully expect him to handle the cut underfoot which was looking quite desperate on Friday.
Fans of COUNT D’ORSAY will have learnt long ago to pick their battles when it comes to Tim Easterby’s sprinter but, having put him up when second at Chester off a mark of 94 back in May, I'll roll the dice again with the mud flying in the vertem.co.uk Handicap.
He’s run really well off the same mark (87) twice already this month, finishing third to Kimngrace at York before ‘winning’ on his side of the track at Catterick last week, only to finish fifth overall as the first four home were drawn higher and came over towards the favoured stands’ side rail.
Count D’Orsay finished nearly three lengths clear of the next horse home on the far side and did look a shade unlucky the way it panned out.
There’s likely to be a bit of pressure on in the low numbers this weekend, with old foe Vintage Clarets drawn next door in three and Copper Knight in five, but the selection – who was third in the Portland both in 2021 and filled the same spot here last month – is the one to have on side at the odds.
Appleby’s choicely-bred Striking Star could prove different class in Newbury’s Virgin Bet Horris Hill Stakes but bookmakers aren’t taking many chances after his debut win in soft ground at Sandown last month.
That novice race isn’t exactly red-hot form, though, and at a bigger price it’s intriguing to see Clive Cox’s ANCESTRAL LAND back in action here after he bolted up in testing conditions at Chepstow.
He’d had 80 days on the sidelines after debuting with a promising second to subsequent Richmond Stakes runner-up Al Karrar at Windsor and still seemingly did plenty wrong, pulling himself to the front early on and running green in the closing stages.
The son of Sioux Nation has a giant stride on him and I’m not surprised he was taken out on account of rattling-quick ground at Windsor in August. He looks a really good prospect for a yard that excels with back-end juveniles and there should be improvement to come tackling seven furlongs for the first time. Anything bigger than 10/1 strikes me as a bet.
I’ll be taking a softly-softly approach at Cheltenham but certainly couldn’t put anyone off Editeur Du Gite in the 888Sport Handicap Chase as he’s got a clear class edge over these rivals.
The Grade One effort at Aintree can safely be excused as he’d surely had enough for the season by then anyway and I’d expect Gary Moore might have him ready for this ahead of a possible crack at the Shloer Chase next month.
One horse almost certain to have been primed for the day is SILVER SHEEN, one of three for Fergal O’Brien in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle.
A former Pertemps ‘qualifier’ winner for Jessica Harrington at Warwick in January 2020, Silver Sheen missed most of the following season but he was back last year when a switch to fences didn’t work out as hoped.
He was back over the smaller obstacles in the spring and despite a no-show in the Martin Pipe at the Festival in March, he almost took advantage of his reduced mark when second at Fairyhouse a month later, before ending the campaign on a low note at Punchestown.
He’s gone well fresh in the past, will appreciate any further rain that falls on Friday evening (on watered ground, don't forget) and is temptingly treated running off a BHA mark of 132 - just 2lb higher than his last win - with the cheekpieces back on for this comeback for good measure.
Double-figure prices underestimate this horse and it’s pretty clear he’s the stable number one with Paddy Brennan on board.
Published at 1530 BST on 21/10/22
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