Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank this week and has three selections from Ayr and Newbury.
Value Bet: Saturday April 12
1pt win Formal in the 2.00 Newbury at 10/1 (Bet365, 8/1 General)
1pt win Classic in the 3.12 Newbury at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Wiseguy in the 3.35 Ayr at 25/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Willie Mullins arrives at Ayr this weekend with a battalion of horses in the hope of being crown Champion Trainer for the second season running and all of his runners are set to be popular even though many wouldn’t perhaps even make the ‘B team’ at Closutton.
He has no less than six in the Coral Scottish Grand National, among them last year’s winner Macdermott, who has failed to complete in three of his four starts this season, and finished well down the field in the other. He came alive in the spring last year, though, so it would be folly to rule him out, but odds of around 8/1 make little appeal, especially from 5lb higher than 12 months ago.
I liked the look of Rock My Way earlier in the week, but he is priced about right now, and the one I want to be with at the prices in the Nicky Henderson-trained WISEGUY.
I must admit, I would be even stronger on his chances had he not run at the Cheltenham Festival, given his ability to go well when fresh, but that run in the Kim Muir strengthened the opinion further that he’s crying out for a test of stamina.
He won well on his reappearance in a handicap chase at Newbury over two miles and six furlongs, appreciating the return to chasing despite producing some messy leaps at times, and having a fair bit up his sleeve at the finish as his jockey just coaxed him along. The performance was backed up by the clock, producing an above-average timefigure, and he was clearly well suited by chasing a true gallop.
Wiseguy ran respectably in the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot 11 weeks later, again kept wide and moving through his race as though still on a fair mark until he was outpaced on the home bend. He stuck to his task well, though, staying on again nearer the finish in similar fashion to how he did at Cheltenham last month.
I’m not convinced he was in love with the track at Cheltenham either, under an amateur jockey who was riding him for the first time, and I’m of the opinion he will love the return to a flat, left-handed track.
They will likely go a stride or two slower over this marathon trip, too, which should put less pressure on his jumping, and his ability to travel well through his races is another positive. Wiseguy is just 4lb higher than his Newbury success and I’m hoping this significantly longer trip can unlock quite a bit of improvement.
There are a couple of Guineas trials at Newbury on Saturday and Andrew Balding has inherited two interesting horses from the now retired Sir Michael Stoute. I’m a big fan of Jonquil and feel he is just the type to take off as a three-year-old given how inexperienced he was last season, but odds of 9/2 look about right for his chance in the Greenham so I’m going to leave him alone.
However, at a double-figure price, I’m finding it hard to overlook FORMAL in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Fred Darling Stakes).
She is on the small side, but she is bred in the purple, the first foal out of Group 1 winner Veracious, who is also a half-sister to high-class Mutakayyef, a multiple winner in pattern company for William Haggas.
Formal also created a superb impression when making a winning debut over this course and distance last summer, travelling with plenty of enthusiasm and stylishly moving up to the girths of the leader just under two furlongs out. She was still on the bridle entering the final furlong and was just pushed out to readily assert, displaying signs of inexperience once on her own in front, but always doing enough and having much more in hand than the official margin suggests.
That form worked out well and she was given a no-nonsense ride to follow up under a penalty at Leicester next time, this time making all of the running to land the odds, just pushed out in the closing stages and confirming herself a smart prospect.
Timeform described the ground as soft on that occasion, but she was much the best horse in the race, so she won despite underfoot conditions probably being softer than ideal. She didn’t get away with it when starting 7/4 second favourite for the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket on her final start, though, never travelling with her usual verve and the fact she hung to her right in the closing stages suggests something may have been ailing her, too.
It isn’t wise to judge a horse by one bad performance, and I’m always in favour of giving another chance, especially to a horse like Formal who has already displayed plenty of ability.
Whether she has the scope to turn out the best of these in the long term is debatable, but this stage of the season on her first time back may be the time to catch her, with several of these likely to come into their own when tackling further.
Formal was an exuberant sort last season, so it is interesting to see new trainer Balding applies a first-time hood, and reports are she’s done well through the winter. I like a low draw on the straight course at Newbury and, under similar conditions to her debut success, I think she may prove too sharp for some of these.
The OLBG Spring Mile Handicap will be run on the round course this year, hence why it’s been limited to 14 runners, and at 5/1 the field it looks a typically competitive if not spectacular renewal.
I think Richard Hannon holds a strong hand, but of his two runners, I’m giving CLASSIC another chance to prove himself a well-handicapped horse. He infuriated me a couple of times last season, notably when beaten a neck by Two Tempting (much better off at the weights now), where he didn’t get the clearest run through, and in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood, when his rider had to sit and suffer for long time before getting an opening.
Such is his run style, he will always be susceptible to shaping better than the bare result, but he now returns from a career-low mark and has also been gelded in the off-season. A gelding operation could just be the making of him and a strongly-run mile, on fast ground round a bend are his optimum conditions.
Classic has reportedly already visited Newbury this year for a racecourse gallop to knock the freshness out of him and another interesting angle is that James Doyle takes over in the saddle. He’s fared well with the draw in stall 3 and the long straight at Newbury should ensure his jockey has plenty of time to find an opening.
Classic has shortened on Friday afternoon, but at 10/1 he still looks a bet to me, considering he started at shorter prices for other competitive handicaps from marks in the 90s on his last four starts.
Preview posted at 1600 BST on 11/04/2025
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.