There's a wide-open look to the Sporting Life Arkle since it was revealed that Ferny Hollow, Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser, would miss the race. Tony McFadden runs the rule over the leading contenders, highlighting what they have achieved to date.
Blue Lord (11/4)
Form figures over fences: 11
Timeform rating: 153p
It's difficult to find fault with the start BLUE LORD has made to his chasing career, though whether he deserves to be favourite for the Sporting Life Arkle in the absence of his stablemate Ferny Hollow is debatable.
Blue Lord has jumped soundly on his way to comfortable wins on both starts over fences and the way he cruised clear on the bridle at Naas last month was visually impressive.
However, it's not easy to weigh up exactly what Blue Lord achieved on that occasion as his only two rivals both hailed from stables going through a rough patch, and they hardly appealed as prospective top-notch two-milers in any case.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
The case for Blue Lord largely revolves around what he might achieve rather than what he has achieved over fences, but his performances over hurdles rather put a ceiling on those expectations.
He was set to finish a distant second behind Appreciate It in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle when coming down at the last, and he also came up short at Punchestown, finishing a four-length third behind Echoes In Rain.
Those efforts highlighted his status as a notch below the very best over hurdles, and while his fluent jumping suggests he will make a bigger impact over fences, a price of 11/4 for the Arkle looks on the short side. He also has a stern task in the Irish Arkle to come through first.
Edwardstone (3/1)
UR-BD111
158
Alan King won back-to-back editions of the Arkle in 2006/2007 with Voy Por Ustedes and My Way de Solzen, and he has made a favourable comparison between that pair and his latest contender for the race, EDWARDSTONE.
That view is backed up by the figures as the rating of 158 Edwardstone earned for his wide-margin victories in the Henry VIII and Wayward Lad is higher than the performance figures clocked by Voy Por Ustedes (151) and My Way De Solzen (157) when winning the Arkle, though it's worth pointing out that they were below-par editions of the race.
Edwardstone failed to complete on his first couple of starts over fences, but he was seriously unlucky on the second of those outings when brought down at Warwick, and he has since shown himself to be a very smart chaser, largely impressing with his jumping and certainly with his professional attitude.
He is a leading player on form, though it's worth pointing out he has faced a couple of scenarios that have been conducive to clocking a high rating - his races have been run at a good pace - and he has less scope for improvement than most of his rivals given his physical maturity and the experience he accrued over hurdles.
Riviere d'Etel (7/1)
1112
151 + 7 lb mares' allowance
No five-year-old has won the Arkle since the weight-for-age scale was revised ahead of the 2008 edition and they stopped receiving 5 lb from their elders. However, even without that age allowance, RIVIERE D'ETEL is still coming out with a leading chance on the figures as she gets a 7 lb sex allowance from the geldings.
Riviere d'Etel was beaten a length and a half by Ferny Hollow at Leopardstown over Christmas when in receipt of 13 lb and it was difficult to see how she was going to reverse that form at Cheltenham on 6 lb worse terms.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsHowever, his absence has opened things right up and Riviere d'Etel, a wide-margin winner on her first three starts over fences, now holds strong claims based on that Leopardstown form.
It's also worth noting that she has received the 'j' in-running symbol from Timeform's reporter on each of her four starts over fences, highlighting her impressive jumping technique. Her fluency over her fences and forward-going style will pose a stern examination of her rivals' jumping.
Haut en Couleurs (8/1)
1
144p
HAUT EN COULEURS, another who in previous years would have been receiving a 5 lb weight-for-age allowance, has had only the one run over fences so far, but he looked a high-class chaser in the making when comfortably scoring at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was just a beginners' chase, so Haut en Couleurs hasn't had the opportunity to post an eye-catching figure over fences, and in his case the 'p', for potential improvement, is a lot more relevant than his chase rating.
The way he coped when thrown in the deep end on his first start for Mullins in the Triumph Hurdle last season certainly suggests he's a horse of considerable talent. Haut en Couleurs, who unlike most of his rivals in the Triumph is bred for jumping and had not come from the Flat, was conceding a considerable edge in experience to his rivals and it is to his credit that he was able to finish third, little over three lengths behind the winner.
On what was just Haut en Couleurs' second start over hurdles he achieved a rating of 144p, which was only 2 lb lower than Blue Lord and 4 lb lower than Edwardstone.
Third Time Lucki (8/1)
1131
152p
THIRD TIME LUCKI was well beaten when third behind Edwardstone in the Henry VIII, but he had excuses on that occasion and is better judged on the form of his three novice chase wins, which includes two over the course and distance of the Arkle.
Third Time Lucki did too much too soon at Sandown, setting things up nicely for those ridden with greater restraint, and he also failed to jump with his usual fluency.
However, his jumping has been an asset on his other starts and was notably good at Doncaster last week when he won the Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsOnly Edwardstone and Riviere d'Etel come out with notably better claims on the figures and the strong-travelling, sure-footed Third Time Lucki should be well suited by the sort of test the Arkle is likely to provide. His participation has been placed in jeopardy, though, as he suffered an overreach at Doncaster - as he did when winning at Cheltenham in November.
Saint Sam (12/1)
1
148p
SAINT SAM only earned a Timeform rating of 135 over hurdles, which is no match for most of these, but he instantly showed much better form over fences when scoring in impressive style at Fairyhouse last month. Saint Sam was up against a couple of rivals who had been of similar merit over hurdles and had already made a promising start over fences, but he proved in a different league to them at Fairyhouse, readily pulling nine lengths clear after travelling smoothly at the head of affairs.
Admittedly, his task was eased by the runner-up failing to jump with any fluency, but Saint Sam's performance in that regard was encouraging for a debutant.
Like stablemates Blue Lord and Haut en Couleurs, Saint Sam also holds an entry in the Irish Arkle, a race which will have a significant bearing on the market for the Cheltenham equivalent.
Brave Seasca (20/1)
6111
151p
BRAVE SEASCA has a different profile having only competed in handicap company over fences, but the ease with which he completed the hat-trick at Warwick last time suggests he's worth a shot at a graded novice event.
Brave Seasca beat only three rivals at Warwick, but it appeals as being a strong piece of form as it was run at a good gallop and he was chased home by the really reliable Sky Pirate.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsTrainer Venetia Williams has already had one progressive handicapper make a splash in graded company in L'Homme Presse, and the rating Brave Seasca has achieved means he isn't one to instantly put a line through if taking his chance in the Arkle.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.