Top commentator Simon Holt previews Sunday's Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket with Rhododendron fancied to top the bill.
Recommended bets:
2pts win Projection in 2.55 Newmarket at 4/1 - progressive in 2016 and could well have more to offer
RHODODENDRON looks a really solid favourite for Sunday's Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket where she will bid to follow up Minding's impressive performance under Ryan Moore 12 months ago and give her trainer Aidan O'Brien a fourth win in the fillies' classic.
The choicely-bred daughter of Galileo, out of the Irish Guineas, Nassau and Sun Chariot Stakes winner Halfway To Heaven, progressed very well last year in five outings and put up an impressive performance in the Fillies' Mile over this course and distance in October when untroubled to account for stable-companion Hydrangea by two-and-a-quarter lengths with another six lengths back to third-placed Urban Fox.
A line through the latter, who beat recent Nell Gwyn runner-up Unforgetable Filly here last September and has recently finished second in the Fred Darling at Newbury, suggests Rhododendron has a good deal in hand over many of her rivals and it is her stable companions who could provide the stiffest competition.
The likely fast ground should suit her well, especially as her only blip last season came when surprisingly beaten into third by Intricately and Hydrangea in the Moyglare at The Curragh on a yielding surface, though it is much more likely that something was amiss that day as she was hanging right in the closing stages.
Clearly, that wasn't Rhododendron's form and, providing she is the same filly who won the Fillies' Mile, it is hard to knock her credentials.
Hydrangea reappeared to win the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown in April, beating her new stable-companion Winter by a head with Intricately about a length-and-a-half away in fourth, but it is the runner-up who has appeared better fancied in recent days.
Winter, trained by the now retired David Wachman last season, was keeping on well that day over the seven furlongs and, another beautifully bred filly (by Galileo out of the Wokingham winner Laddies Poker Two), appeared to take a big step forward on previous form.
As already indicated, the form of Daban's victory in the Nell Gwyn doesn't look strong enough to worry the selection, but John Gosden's filly was having only her second run here last month and this half-sister to last season's Jersey Stakes runner-up and Group Three winner Thikriyaat is a very likeable type and open to further improvement.
The other runner who takes the eye is Fair Eva who looked a future star when winning her first two races at Haydock and Ascot (by four lengths from Kilmah) last season only to meet long odds-on defeat subsequently in both the Lowther at York (behind Queen Kindly) and when having no answer to Spain Burg's late challenge in the Rockfel here in September.
The daughter of Frankel just seemed to go off the boil a bit but, if back on song, she could well be a contender though her ability to stay a mile is a slight question.
Queen Kindly, another Frankel filly, has also been a bit disappointing since the Lowther and has stamina questions to answer following her fifth behind Dabyan and Urban Fox in the Fred Darling.
The 'dark' filly in the field is Talaayeb, successful on her only start here over seven furlongs last September, and who is out of a half-sister to Ghanaati who won this race in 2009 on her seasonal debut having had just two starts as a juvenile.
Earlier, I will keep the faith with PROJECTION, a horse who carried this column's hopes last season, in the Longholes Handicap.
Roger Charlton's four-year-old ran well on all three of his outings in 2016, finishing fourth to subsequent Stewards Cup winner Dancing Star on the July Course, then looking unlucky in running when fifth to Hoof It in the Stewards Sprint (Cup consolation) at Glorious Goodwood before going down by two short heads behind Summer Chorus and Futoon back on the July Course in August.
That last run was much better than it looked at the time: Summer Chorus went up 7lb in the ratings subsequently and Futoon 9lb while fourth-placed East Street Revue is now 13lb higher (and 10lb worse off here) and the fifth Acclaim 17lb higher as a result of winning his next three starts (over longer distances).
A rise of just 3lb for Projection, who didn't reappear again, looks lenient in that context and, providing he is fit and well following his absence, this could be his day albeit in a very competitive field.
Posted 1319 GMT on 06/05/2017