Timeform Prince of Wales’s Stakes preview including Headman and Japan
We've teamed up with Timeform as they provide their detailed form analysis ahead of Wednesday's Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Top-rated
Japan (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 141)
Japan progressed well as a three-year-old, building on a close-up third in the Derby when running out an impressive winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting before landing the Grand Prix de Paris and the Juddmonte International. He shaped well when finishing fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, arguably making his ground too quickly as he challenged wide into the straight, and he was the leading three-year-old middle-distance performer in Britain and Ireland last year. He may not have shown everything he has to offer, but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have much in hand on ratings, with Addeybb only 1 lb behind and the entire field covered by just 6 lb.
The Improver
Headman (136p)
Headman was well held in a minor event at Newbury on his reappearance last season but he proved a completely different proposition when returning to that track for the London Gold Cup – always one of the most high-quality, competitive handicaps of the year – and he showed a good attitude to score under top weight. That smart performance earned him a crack at the Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam at Saint-Cloud and he won in taking style, showing a good turn of foot that was also very much in evidence at Deauville in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (also a Group 2), doing well to come from last to first. His winning run came to an end in the Irish Champion Stakes, when he could finish only fifth to Magical, but it’s worth bearing in mind he was slowly away and then made a sweeping move which left him a bit short in the finish. The lightly raced Headman is a tall, good sort who should have thrived given time to fill his frame, so he could do much better this season.
The Timeform Flag
Addeybb (Horses For Courses)
Addeybb has twice raced on Ascot’s round course and on both occasions he produced what were arguably career-best efforts at the time. He was an authoritative winner of the listed Wolferton Stakes at last year’s Royal meeting, relishing the rain-softened ground as he powered two and a half lengths clear, and he then pushed Magical close in the Champion Stakes. It is worth noting, however, that both performances came with plenty of give underfoot and his overall record suggests he is most effective on testing ground.
The Verdict
Japan is clearly the horse to beat given the progress he made last season, though he doesn’t have much to spare on form in what looks a closely-knit contest, so he could be too short in the betting at around evens. Lord North and Headman are both progressive types who could still have more to offer so they are of interest, with Headman, in particular, expected to thrive this season given his lightly-raced profile and imposing physique.
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings
141 Japan
140 Addeybb
139 Lord North
136p Headman
136 Barney Roy
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