The Betfair Sprint Cup is on the agenda as our value-seeking expert looks for the best early bets in Haydock's Group 1 contest.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season, 2023
1pt e.w. Spycatcher in Betfair Sprint Cup at 16/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3) - min 14/1 (Unibet, BetVictor)
Shaquille dominates the long-range market for the Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes on September 9 and in terms of pure ability, suitability for the race and the potential for further improvement still to come, there’s clearly no arguing with that.
It's been a sensational three-year-old campaign and the scenes that followed his July Cup victory at Newmarket were particularly memorable, trainer Julie Camacho’s husband and assistant Steve Brown emotionally hailing their "champion" after he again made a bit of a mess of the start – as he had done in the Commonwealth Cup – before powering to another impressive victory.
A champion, no doubt, and like so many before him, a champion with one or two quirks. Which does always leave the door slightly ajar for a potential upset at some stage as it’s very hard to argue he’s running his races in the most efficient manner. Perhaps, once everything clicks into place and he breaks on terms and relaxes into a race, he’ll be able to scale even greater heights in terms of performance.
But, at the same time, maybe he’ll continue to do things wrong and some day soon pay the price for his tardy starts and hard-pulling tendancies.
As a general 7/4 shot over three weeks in advance of his next big target at Haydock, Shaquille is not a horse I’d want to be getting stuck into, and there looks to be plenty of each-way value on offer elsewhere.
If there’s one horse who could quite significantly outperform her current odds (16/1) then it is Sense Of Duty, who has a huge amount going for her including winning form at the track.
The glaring issue is that she’s had injury problems that have kept her off since winning last year’s Chipchase from Annaf and Bielsa (strong form) and even another relatively encouraging update from trainer William Haggas wouldn’t be enough to make me want to part with my cash at this point.
Instead, I’ll focus on a couple of more recent winners who could yet make the grade and the first to consider is Mitbaahy.
I’ve always felt he was capable of a touch more than he’d been able to show on the track as a three-year-old but he’s probably just a horse that needs things to fall right as he’s generally held up near the back and ridden for luck.
On his fourth start at four, having been set some stiff tasks earlier this year, everything finally clicked into place again when dropped to Listed level at Chester earlier in the month, a strong pace up front evidently playing into his hands on the day. He also got a dream run on the inside rail, before switching wide of the front-running Ehraz turning for home.
In his defence, I really liked how Mitbaahy responded inside the last furlong to readily see off the challenge of Karl Burke’s filly Fast Response – despite the 5lb weight concession – and in the process prove his suitability for six furlongs as well as much softer ground, which appeared to have been dead against him when down the field in last year’s Abbaye at Longchamp.
Still unexposed at the trip, Roger Varian clearly has plenty to work with now and maybe the first win since last September will give the horse a newfound confidence.
He’s 40/1 in a place (Unibet) for the Sprint Cup but the general 25s is probably just about right ahead of a possible return to the top grade, and in any case I’d much rather back the Burke-trained SPYCATCHER around 16/1 as he'll be a single-figure price on the day.
It’s not like his improvement since returning from injury has gone unnoticed but I thought he’d be a good bit shorter for this on the back of his unlucky second in the Maurice de Gheest last time.
I’ve seen the photo several times now and can still barely believe he was short-headed by King Gold, having led from well over a furlong out and appeared to get his head back in front a stride after the line too.
With all due respect to the winner, who had hacked up in a Longchamp Group 3 over seven furlongs (from Abernant winner Garrus) the time before, the very well-backed Spycatcher was the best horse in the race to my eye, and it just looked a case of him getting a fraction lonely out in front, as had been the case when worn down close home by Tiber Flow at Newcastle early last month.
Prior to the Chipchase, the five-year-old Spycatcher had run a massive race when fourth under top weight (BHA: 106) in the Victoria Cup, surely one of the strongest six/seven furlong handicaps run all year having thrown up nine subsequent winners including the Bunbury Cup, International Stakes and the Coral Challenge victor.
Spycatcher had already done his bit for the form when bouncing out of his narrow defeat in the north west to win a French Group 3 doing handsprings just eight days on, and the latest Deauville effort confirms he’s an older horse very much on the upgrade.
Burke, who won this with Quiet Reflection in 2016, also has Cold Case and Swingalong engaged but Spycatcher looks the one very much on target and, given his love of soft ground, everything looks in place for another serious run.
First published on Sporting Life Plus at 1300 BST on 15/08/23
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