Despite both winning in decisive fashion at Haydock on Saturday, Adam Houghton explains why it might be worth taking a cautious view of the form shown by Dramatised and Little Big Bear.
Those drawn high seemed to be at an advantage in the two feature races run on the sprint track at Haydock on Saturday, the Sandy Lane Stakes and the Temple Stakes, continuing a theme from the previous afternoon.
On Friday, the four highest-drawn runners filled the frame in the two-year-old fillies’ maiden run over six furlongs, while the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes over the same course and distance was also dominated by the three fillies who made their effort closest to the stands rail.
It’s usually best to take a cautious view when assessing the form of any race in which there is an apparent draw bias, and it was certainly an unsatisfactory renewal of the Temple Stakes won by Dramatised (drawn 10 of 14), who was followed home by Equilateral (13), Live In The Dream (14) and Existent (11) as the first four pulled a little way clear of the rest.
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Incidentally, Mitbaahy fared best of the remainder from stall 3, shaping well on his first start for eight months having ended up almost on the far-side rail. A Group Three winner at Newbury last September, he can make his mark at a higher level still this season, likely to prove more of a match for those who finished ahead of him here under different circumstances.
As for Dramatised, she had a length to spare over her closest pursuer at the line, showing improved form after seven months off to make a winning reappearance against her elders. She advanced her Timeform rating to 116 (from 106) and confirmed in no uncertain terms that she has trained on from two to three.
However, she’ll probably need to take another step forward to be competitive in a race like the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, particularly as she’s unlikely to have the advantages that she appeared to have here in delivering her challenge hard against the stands rail.
Similar comments with regards track position apply to Sandy Lane winner Little Big Bear, though he was entitled to win as readily as he did anyway. After all, he was 11 lb clear of his main form rival, Bradsell, on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings beforehand, while his task was made easier still by the fact that all bar the runner-up, Shouldvebeenaring, failed to give their running.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsEither way, it was encouraging to see Little Big Bear get his career back on track after his flop in the 2000 Guineas, ultimately landing the spoils by a length and a quarter and doing so without needing to match the form of his Phoenix Stakes tour de force which earned him a Timeform rating of 126 and saw him crowned the highest-rated two-year-old in 2022.
Though precocious as a juvenile, Little Big Bear is a big, strong, lengthy colt and there's no doubting that he's trained on now. Sprinting is clearly his game and he’s entitled to be seen as the one to beat for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot judged on the style of this success and the substance of his two-year-old form.
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