Lots of quality action on ITV Racing this Saturday and Matt Brocklebank looks to identify the pick of the value on offer at Haydock and Ascot.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 23
1pt win Fine Casting in 1.15 Haydock at 20/1 (William Hill)
0.5pts e.w. Ottizzini in 2.30 Haydock at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Prince Quali in 3.20 Ascot at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Pepe Le Moko in 3.40 Haydock at 12/1 (General)
Torrential rain looks just about guaranteed at Haydock on Friday night into Saturday and the first thing to note is that a fascinating-looking Betfair Chase at the time of final declarations could end up being whittled down to just half a dozen runners.
Bravemansgame is considered a doubt if the going turns really testing, while connections of The Real Whacker and Hewick might also think twice in that scenario, but for the time being most of the focus has been on Grey Dawning.
He’s widely expected to bridge the gap between leading novice and the best staying chasers already on the scene this year and, with soft-ground Haydock form already in the book from last season, there’s every reason to suggest he’ll be in his element.
The Betfair Chase is quite a niche test, however, and we know how well suited to the place - and the specific demands of this race - the 10-year-old Royale Pagaille is, and if pushed I'd be looking to get last year's winner on side.
It's a race in which I'm struggling to get away from the top of the market and this column has always been about trying to identify value where the majority of punters haven’t even looked, so I'll move on swiftly.
One could be forgiven for barely straying beyond Dan Skelton in the valuable Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle. He’s responsible for three here including last weekend's Cheltenham scorer Doyen Quest, who is officially 5lb well-in under the penalty and the mount of stable jockey Harry Skelton.
The one of his I’m most interested in is Tristan Durrell’s ride, Catch Him Derry, who will appreciate every drop of rain and has looked miles ahead of the handicapper when winning at Ayr last April and on his seasonal return at Newton Abbott last month.
It wouldn’t be a shock if he were to go off favourite but one who looks a touch over-priced towards the other end of the market is the mare OTTIZZINI, who recently provided Daryl Jacob with a 1,000th career winner.
The jockey reaching that milestone slightly overshadowed the fact that she looked a much-improved animal on her seasonal reappearance, and a subsequent 4lb rise in the ratings could underestimate her.
Always fairly promising, she was pitched into a Grade 3 at Down Royal against Brighterdaysahead first time out last year but her jumping let her down and, in hindsight, it was something that stayed with her for the majority of last term.
She kept jumping out to her right for whatever reason and only managed the one win - in a small-field novice event at Musselburgh - from seven starts, but her half-length Listed second at Doncaster when conceding 3lb to the winner was a cracking effort and that came on really soft ground too which obviously bodes well.
Granted, it was proper good going for her reappearance at Ayr, but I liked how much straighter she was with her hurdling that day and it could just be the case that trainer Stuart Crawford has been able to iron out whatever was causing the jumping issues.
A revised rating of 126 looks perfectly manageable, I love the fact she’s among only one or two confirmed front-runners in here, especially when you consider how hard it might be to make up ground when the weather turns, and she’s not yet fully exposed as a three-miler.
It was encouraging to see the yard’s horses running so well - in both codes - last week too, with two winners and two others placed from six starters, and the booking of Brian Hayes is no bad thing either given his only previous Haydock ride saw him finish runner-up in this race on a 22/1 shot 12 months ago.
Crawford won the two-mile, three-furlong Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle last year with Park Annonciade, who is back for another go and runs off just a 2lb higher mark having evidently lost his way over hurdles and fences ever since.
He’s probably best watched after a rough-looking fall in a novice chase at Ayr last time and, with Ben Pauling sending out plenty of winners this autumn including first time out, preference is to take a chance on the fitness of his FINE CASTING.
This is another well-handicapped previous course and distance scorer, having won at the December meeting here in 2022, and while unable to add to his tally in 10 subsequent outings, he’s got plenty of form in novice chases from last season which suggests he’s still more than capable on his day.
Fine Casting did admittedly sign off with a low-key effort back over hurdles at Uttoxeter in May, but the assessor has handily dropped him 4lb for that blob, meaning he’s able to run off 119 on his return to action.
He’s not been rated this low since he filled the runner-up spot in an 18-runner conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham two seasons ago and that’s not the only time he’s performed up to scratch after a break too, having run close to his best when second on chase/seasonal debut last December.
History shows he’s happy on all ground conditions and the eight-year-old has the assistance of promising 5lb claimer Beau Morgan, brother of Luca who partnered the horse in the aforementioned conditional riders’ event. It’s obviously hoped they gel just as well at the first time of asking.
The concluding Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase is another good, open-looking betting race and I’m drawn to the two horses who rain in a stronger staying handicap won by Henry De Bromhead’s Senior Chief at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting last month.
The Skelton-trained Le Milos performed well on his comeback in fifth but - three lengths and one place further back at the finish - PEPE LE MOKO shaped far better than the bare form suggests (full replay below).
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
On his first run beyond two and a half miles, Jane Williams' six-year-old jumped and travelled really well and looked like potentially playing a hand in the finish before a mistake at the tricky third from home.
That jolting error took away his momentum and I think it was that, rather than the new distance, that saw him finish relatively tamely.
It was his first run for 245 days too was entitled to be needed, especially in such decent company, and the assessor has dropped him a pound which looks quite generous.
Now just 7lb higher than when bolting up by 14 lengths at Kempton back in January, he's got loads of untapped potential at three miles and was a ready winner at Warwick on bad ground 12 months ago too. So there’s a chance that soft conditions and staying trips combined could be the making of this horse, and his yard’s runners so far in November have combined form figures of 222214.
All hail the Prince at Ascot
Plenty of rain expected at Ascot too and that won’t be a major concern for Martator, favourite for the Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase after his recent good-ground win over the same course and distance.
He looks really quite classy and potentially heading for Graded races at some stage, but he’s not the biggest and now carries top weight of 12-0 – put it this way, it’s no surprise to see Venetia Williams looking to help him out by booking Ned Fox, who still claims 5lb.
Sans Bruit, third in the Haldon Gold Cup on his return to action, was proving popular at the time of writing but the value play has to be PRINCE QUALI, who beat Paul Nicholls’ horse when last seen at Chepstow in April and is 5lb better off on the revised terms.
Prince Quali hasn't had many starts for Robert Walford but clearly loves getting his toe into the ground and was on a steep upward curve earlier in the year.
Being beaten first time out (over hurdles) last term might put a few punters off but he looks a different horse since being switched to fences and should definitely have more to offer as a seven-year-old.
Harry Cobden - riding Sans Bruit for the first time - might look to make the running in this but Prince Quali won't be far off the pace and he’s a good jumper with a sound attitude too, despite being beaten narrowly a couple of times last winter. He'll do for me at double-figure odds.
Published at 1600 GMT on 22/11/24
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.