Antepost Angle: Free racing tips and weekend preview ahead of John Smith's Cup at York

Recommended bets, Saturday July 18

2pts win Harrovian in John Smith’s Cup (2.30 York, Saturday) at 10/1

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John Gosden can address a bit of an anomaly at York this weekend and claim his first career success in the John Smith’s Cup, where HARROVIAN (10/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) looks fair value even at this early stage.

Gosden hadn't had a runner since Beachfire's fourth in 2011 until last year when Stylehunter finished down the field as a well-fancied 6/1 shot, but he looks to have lined one up again with just the single entry for Saturday's big handicap.

Unraced at two, Harrovian clearly hasn’t been the easiest to deal with and prompted the champion trainer to reach for cheekpieces, a visor, and then blinkers in three successive starts last season. It was third time lucky in that regard when claiming a small handicap at Yarmouth in September, after which he was last of seven on unsuitably soft ground in a top-quality event over this weekend’s course and distance in mid-October.

That proved to be his final start as a three-year-old, and also proved to be his final appearance as a colt, which seems to have really transformed him this time around, in a manner not too dissimilar to that of Lord North for the same owner and trainer.

He won last year’s Cambridgeshire on his second run after being gelded and has obviously kicked on this year, something not beyond the realms of possibility for the well-bred Harrovian.

The signs were there on his seasonal return at Haydock last month, racing keenly and not getting the clearest of runs before staying on well to be second to Babbo’s Boy. The race has produced four subsequent winners, including Harrovian, whose reformed character was evident as he chased down Archie Perkins – who had got first run on him – to win at Doncaster.

The assessor couldn’t go mad given the head verdict and while his revised (6lb higher) rating of 102 obviously demands more of him, it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t still have plenty in hand if fully realising his potential. Frankie Dettori was on board at Doncaster and appears to be in line for Newbury on Saturday but Rab Havlin has won twice on the horse and that potential switch shouldn't be putting anyone off.

On a line through Haydock third Country, one of the winners since, Harrovian just about has the measure of Solid Stone, although Sir Michael Stoute’s horse also looked an improved animal for being gelded when winning well at Sandown.

He’s gone up 7lb to 101, just 1lb lower than Ballet Concerto who won the John Smith’s Cup for the same connections in 2017, and is another potential Group horse in the making.

Top Newmarket yards are extremely well represented and Yorkshire-born William Haggas, successful in the race in 2011 and 2013, has entered three headed by Desert Icon. He was a non-runner at Epsom on Derby day after the wet week there but was fairly devastating when bolting up at Newmarket at the end of June.

The bigger field at York may not be quite as suitable and who knows whether the cheekpieces will work to the same degree again, but he’s a more realistic contender than stablemates Sinjaari and Ghaziyah, who are returning from a layoff and taking a steep step up in class respectively.

Caradoc, put up here when sixth as Sky Defender took top spot in the aforementioned Epsom handicap, didn’t get the race run to suit that day and should remain dangerous off an unchanged mark of 100.

Ed Walker's chestnut was a close third at York on quick conditions when tried over a mile and a half last season and looks to have unfinished business as a 10-furlong handicapper despite being 5lb higher than when winning a valuable pot over the same trip at Newbury in September.

Tinandali was third in the same Epsom race, running to a very similar level to when just denied by Nicholas T at Ayr on his debut for David O’Meara.

The autumn purchase (out of Dermot Weld’s yard) looks to be working towards something major and, given his yard, may now be ready to peak for this local prize.

He might have been the bet at 14/1 with a bit more rain in the forecast as he did seem more at home on yielding conditions for previous connections.

Another one who deserves at least a mention is Good Birthday (16/1) for last year's winning owner-trainer combination of King Power and Andrew Balding. He isn’t going to be easy to predict this year but obviously has some serious talent when on song.

He was beaten just a length by Headman in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last May and filled the same position behind Lord North in the Cambridgeshire, where Fifth Position was back in eighth. He’s 1lb lower than for that fine Newmarket effort (5lb better off with Roger Varian's recent Doncaster winner), but lines up following quite contrasting efforts at HQ and Ascot this term.

Soft ground and the mile and a half trip didn’t play to his strengths in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal meeting but it was a really lifeless effort and he’s got it to prove again now after quite an encouraging comeback run behind West End Charmer at the Guineas meeting. He's one to watch - from behind the sofa if needs must.

Posted at 1600 BST on 13/07/20

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