Antepost Angle: Free Cheltenham Festival tips for the handicap races
Matt Brocklebank reacts to the unveiling of the Cheltenham Festival handicap weights with his best bets including a Kim Muir fancy.
Recommended bets
2pts win Galvin in Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase at 9/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Deise Aba in Kim Muir Handicap Chase at 12/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Flash The Steel in Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle at 25/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Flash The Steel in Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 16/1 (NRNB)
News from Philip Hobbs that DEISE ABA is highly likely to take up his engagement in the Kim Muir rather than the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham is well worth acting upon.
Owner Trevor Hemmings has a fine record in big handicaps at the Festival and this particular seven-year-old appears a very progressive performer with plenty of potential to keep improving past his current mark.
The Kim Muir isn’t a race absolutely packed with such types and he looks a real standout based on the most recent of his back-to-back wins when beating Cloudy Glen – also in the Hemmings silks – at Sandown on February 1.
He was well on top at the line there, confirming the big impression he’d made when easily winning at Catterick the previous month, and his form from earlier in the campaign behind Pym and Highest Sun also represents a respectable piece of evidence.
As short as 14/1 for the Ultima prior to the weights launch at Prestbury Park in midweek, the confirmation of his target courtesy of the trainer who was in attendance seems a really significant development and it’s not hard to see his price for the Kim Muir contracting quite markedly over the next couple of weeks.
The other really noteworthy lines from the media day involved Irish handicappers, not least Relegate who looks to have been given just about the perfect opportunity to strut her stuff from a low racing weight in the Pertemps Final.
The former Champion Bumper winner, now with Colm Murphy having been trained by Willie Mullins, qualified with a recent staying-on fourth at Punchestown (first start of the season) and has been bumped up 5lb from her Irish mark to a BHA rating of 137. Which means she will make the cut.
Another massive Irish eyecatcher from a handicapping perspective is the Joseph O’Brien-trained novice Sempo, who holds entries in the Grade Ones over two and a half and three miles, but now looks likely to take up his Coral Cup entry having been handed a mark of 142.
There can’t be too many complaints from connections given last year’s Champion Bumper sixth was a good second to subsequent Grade One-placed Cobbler’s Way at Leopardstown in December, before readily getting off the mark when odds-on at Thurles.
He’s only 2lb higher here than in Ireland and the money for him late on Wednesday speaks volumes over where he’s likely to be showing up, with the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett suddenly looking far less likely.
One potential Irish blot on the handicap I simply can’t resist is GALVIN for Gordon Elliott in the Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase on the opening day.
He might not strike many as being a huge price at the 9/1 generally on offer (with the NRNB firms) but looks the ideal type to get on side before a further price crash in the coming days.
There appeared to be a fair chance he’d be expunged from the 0-145 contest based on the fact he had a British mark of 144 over hurdles when sixth behind City Island and Champ in last season’s Ballymore but 142 effectively assures him a place in this line-up, providing Elliott isn’t tempted to go against the established chasers in the Plate.
That doesn’t look likely with the same stable's Dallas Des Pictons already forced down that route so Galvin should run on the Tuesday and he’ll have an outstanding chance.
He’s been laid out for this since finishing second to Salsaretta (now rated 148 having won again twice since) at Punchestown at the end of November and he really seemed to blossom later in the campaign last year.
He backed up his solid Ballymore run with a good second to Getaway Trump at Ayr and, providing everything goes well with him over the next week or so, he could end up usurping Imperial Aura at the top of the market.
FLASH THE STEEL rounds off this year’s antepost portfolio for the Festival and, with NRNB prices freely available with most major firms now, I’m happy to back him for both the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe.
The latter would appear most likely given he’s ‘only’ rated 138 and may not even make the cut for the Coral Cup but I wouldn’t want to miss such a big price if he were to sneak in and Dan Skelton decide to roll the dice in the supposedly tougher race.
Wherever he turns up he has the look of a long-term Skelton project with the Festival in mind as his form from earlier in the season has worked out extremely well.
He hated three miles on bad ground at Haydock after winning from a whole host of subsequent scorers at Chepstow in October and they’ve done the sensible thing in putting him away for the spring.
The chances of genuinely good ground look highly unlikely but it’s not like Flash The Steel doesn’t handle some ease (officially soft at Chepstow) and he should just be a bit more at home on conditions that don’t resemble Haydock in late-November.
He’s been first or second in five of his eight career starts over hurdles so far and looks very capable of scaling even greater heights this spring with his wicked turn of foot. He’s evidently in the right hands to do just that and represents a bit of value away from some of the more obvious protagonists in these particular handicaps.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 26/0220
Antepost Angle: Cheltenham Festival tips
2pts win Galvin in Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase at 9/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Deise Aba in Kim Muir Handicap Chase at 12/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Flash The Steel in Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle at 25/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Flash The Steel in Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at 16/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Pym in RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase at 25/1
1pt e.w. Coeur Sublime in Unibet Champion Hurdle at 25/1 (NRNB)
1pt win Cilaos Emery in Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at 10/1
1pt win Fakir D'Oudairies in Marsh Novices' Chase at 14/1
1pt win Al Dancer in Racing Post Arkle at 25/1
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