Matt Brocklebank has a 40/1 tip for the Grand National next April - don't miss our long-range expert's latest preview, with Sky Bet matching the best price about his selection.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Saturday April 9, 2022
1pt e.w. Mount Ida in 2022 Grand National at 40/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - General 33/1 also fine
Timeform reported MOUNT IDA’s Cheltenham Festival victory would be a “performance likely to be remembered for many a year by all who witnessed it”, but for those in need of a quick refresher, here goes:
Mount Ida, running under the banner of Denise Foster during trainer Gordon Elliott’s 12-month ban (six months suspended), lined up on Thursday March 18 under Jack Kennedy for the Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase, run over three miles and two furlongs on the New Course (free replay in full below).
The seven-year-old mare, who won a bumper and a maiden hurdle but never quite cut it at Graded level before switching to fences at the start of last season, was worryingly inexperienced after just three chase runs, and was making her handicap debut from a BHA rating of 142.
She was sent off the 3/1 favourite.
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Jumping to her right from the first, she was near the back of the pack early on and by the sixth fence had dropped to dead last, trading at the maximum (999/1) on the Betfair Exchange soon after.
Despite all of this, Kennedy never looked in the slightest bit rattled and, after picking off rivals one by one on the second circuit, Mount Ida incredibly came through to lead – still on the bridle - two out, and promptly forged up the famous hill to beat last month’s Newbury hero Cloudy Glen (to whom she was conceding 2lb) by six and a half lengths.
It was a truly extraordinary performance, one which in many ways typified her obvious inexperience and yet still somehow defied it.
Many horses have struggled with the contours of the track on their first visit to Cheltenham, countless others have found the incessant pace at which Festival handicaps are run to be far too hot to handle. Yet Mount Ida overcame everything to post a remarkable performance, and don’t forget the third week in March this year was one absolutely peppered with remarkable performances.
Having signed off last term with a staying-on third behind Elimay at Fairyhouse, it was great to see the selection make such a fine start to the current campaign, winning readily at Clonmel (extended 2m4f) on November 11.
The Listed T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase is a relatively small race, and Mount Ida was well placed given she was in receipt of 3lb from a rival 8lb her inferior on official figures (Scarlet And Dove), but she jumped gun-barrel straight in the main and there was no sign of her losing ground or needing to pass horses late.
Quite the opposite, in fact, with Davy Russell looking to be positive, disputing the lead early before putting her seemingly improved jumping technique to good use. As for the future, her next target is not yet all that obvious but sticking to mares-only races for the time being won’t do her confidence any harm as connections look to build up her experience.
Here is a horse with obvious quirks, the kind of temperament which could clearly see her go one of two ways in the heat of Aintree battle, and yet everything about her suggests to me that she could absolutely relish the idiosyncratic nature of a Grand National.
She remains totally unexposed at marathon distances but her half-brother Sizing Tennessee won the Ladbrokes Trophy which bodes pretty well, and assistant trainer Lisa O’Neill kindly let slip that Aintree is the long-term goal following the comeback win at Clonmel.
A fascinating contender whichever way you look at it, the 40/1 (bet365 paying five places, Hills are same price but just the four places at this point) appears at worst a fun, small-stakes project to sit on until the spring. At best, it’s not totally inconceivable to imagine Mount Ida as a genuine market leader by the time the race comes around.
Published at 1500 GMT on 19/12/21
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