Ben Linfoot on the horses who failed to take advantage of being well in at the weights in the Grand National
In light of Cloth Cap being a stone well in for the Randox Grand National, Ben Linfoot looks at previous horses to be thrown in at the weights that were beaten.
Cloth Cap goes into the Randox Grand National on April 10 officially 14lb ahead of his mark after bolting up at Kelso three weeks after the weights for the Aintree spectacular were released.
A rapidly improving steeplechaser who has taken his form to new levels in cheekpieces, he jumps well and races prominently – attributes that lend themselves well to the National test – so he has an obvious chance as best odds of 4/1 indicate.
Jonjo O’Neill’s horse started the season on a rating of 138 having had eight starts over fences.
He’d won two of them, had finished out of the first four only once (when eighth in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival) and his best run had come in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in the April of 2019, when he was third off a mark of 134 over the furthest trip he’d ever been exposed to.
Third at Cheltenham on his return in October last year, he was beaten 15-and-a-half lengths by Frodon and it was a run that didn’t really hint at what was to come. Indeed, he was dropped 2lb to 136 for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
The key was the application of cheekpieces and the switch to aggressive tactics, which have resulted in a 10-length Ladbrokes Trophy win and an easy bet365 Premier Chase victory at Kelso, where he accounted for four horses rated between 154 and 158.
His handicapping timeline this season has seen him go from 138 to 136 to 147 to 148 (collateral form nudge) to the National weights being released (148) to 162.
I asked BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood, the man who sets the weights for the National, about that 26lb rise for two victories and whether he’s rooting for him in Liverpool, to in essence vindicate his new mark for the horse.
“I wouldn’t quite say that as I tend to take emotion and sentiment out of the equation,” Greenwood said.
“But he’s an improving horse, we saw that at Newbury and I could’ve been too lenient after that race.
“Kelso wasn’t a handicap, and while there’s a bit of leeway involved with that in mind I don’t think there is any doubt that he improved from Newbury to Kelso.
“Whether 14lb was the right and correct rise we’ll find out and I suppose from a handicapping perspective I’d want him to win the National to prove me right. But he could win at Aintree and 14lb to 162 might still look too much.
“He’s 4/1 favourite for a reason. People believe he is well in, that he’ll act on decent ground, that he jumps well, that he races prominently and he’s clearly got a lot of the necessary attributes.
“But - it’s the National. And as we all know it can throw up the odd misadventure.”
It can indeed and history tells us that being chucked in for the great race is not an automatic route to glory in the world’s most famous steeplechase.
Unfortunately Martin couldn’t help me with historical horses that were officially well in at the weights in the National down the years, so the below list, from 1991 to 2019, is plucked from my own memory or notes and, as for the two in the early 1990s, their well-in factor is a guesstimate based on their subsequent published ratings.
First, though, here are this year’s horses that are ahead of the handicapper – and one that would’ve been had he been left in at the March 2 forfeit stage.
Greenwood said: “Tiger Roll would’ve been a pound well in at Aintree running of 166. He went back up to 167 after his Cross Country win at Cheltenham, the same mark he went up to after he won the same race in 2019 – it was almost a visual replica.”
2021 Grand National horses well in at the weights:
- Cloth Cap (14lb)
- Farclas (6lb)
- Lord Du Mesnil (5lb)
- Acapella Bourgeois (4lb)
- Minella Times (4lb)
- Any Second Now (3lb)
- Bristol De Mai (2lb)
The well-in wanderers
Selected horses from down the years that failed to take advantage of being ahead of the handicapper in the Grand National…
GARRISON SAVANNAH – 2nd 1991 (18lb well in)
Jenny Pitman’s Garrison Savannah went into the 1991 Seagram Grand National as the 7/1 second-favourite on the back of holding on from The Fellow by a short head in a thrilling Cheltenham Gold Cup, with the 1989 winner, Desert Orchid, 15 lengths back in third.
It would’ve been interesting to see what his in-running price in the National would’ve been had Betfair existed back in 1991, as he went clear at the last under Mark Pitman, only for him to tire on the run-in where the flying Seagram collared him in the final 100 yards.
Rated 157 in the National, Garrison Savannah ran off a handicap mark of 175 in a four-runner Badger Beer Chase on his next start at Wincanton the following November, where he failed to justify odds of 1/3 as Josh Gifford’s Foyle Fisherman got the better of him in receipt of 17lb.
COOL GROUND – 10th 1992 (16lb well in)
Beating The Fellow by a short head in the Cheltenham Gold Cup was a thing in the early 90s and Cool Ground did a Garrison Savannah in 1992 when just getting up under Adrian Maguire to deny the French raider once again.
Toby Balding had campaigned Cool Ground regularly throughout 1991-92, with the Gold Cup being his third win and seventh race of the season, but there was still time for a crack at the Grand National three weeks’ later where he was sent off the 10/1 fourth favourite.
He could only manage 10th position, though, beaten 40 lengths by Party Politics in what might have been one race too many for the often-seen 10-year-old. Rated 161 in the National, he ran off 177 when falling in the Becher Chase back at Aintree the following November.
SYNCHRONISED – Fell 2012 (7lb well in)
SUNNYHILLBOY – 2nd 2012 (10lb well in)
Jonjo O’Neill has some previous when it comes to horses ahead of the handicapper in the Grand National and he’ll be hoping Cloth Cap can realign this particular chapter of his history in the race.
O’Neill finally landed the National for the first time when Don’t Push It removed the same monkey from AP McCoy’s back in 2010, but tragedy was to strike for the trainer-jockey combination two years later when Synchronised, half a stone well in on the back of a Cheltenham Gold Cup win, fractured his leg when running loose after a fall at Becher’s Brook and had to be euthanised.
Stablemate Sunnyhillboy was even better treated than the Gold Cup winner, however, and was 10lb well in following a convincing victory in the Kim Muir at the previous month’s Cheltenham Festival.
He looked to have the National all sewn up from the elbow onwards, but that 494-yard run-in proved one yard too many for Sunnyhillboy as Paul Nicholls’ Grade One-winning grey, Neptune Collonges, ridden by Daryl Jacob, just got up by a nose right on the line.
ROCKY CREEK – 17th 2015 (9lb well in)
Neptune Collonges remains Nicholls’ sole National winner even though he had another great chance on paper back in 2015.
Rocky Creek had taken to the fences well when he was fifth in the 2014 renewal behind Pineau De Re, although he did perhaps shape like a non-stayer given he hit the front four out, but he returned looking a stronger horse 12 months later.
Pulled up in the Hennessy in the November, he was dropped to 154 for the National – 2lb lower than the mark he had run off the previous year – and then bolted up by six lengths at Kempton days after the Aintree weights were published.
Officially 9lb well in, he was sent off 8/1 but was never travelling with any fluency and finished 17th, beaten 100 lengths by the impressive winner, Many Clouds.
THE LAST SAMURI – 2nd 2016 (12lb well in)
If I had to pick one horse from recent history whose Grand National chance was similar to that of Cloth Cap’s this year, it would be The Last Samuri from 2016.
Kim Bailey’s horse was officially 12lb well in and was thriving at the right time, just like Cloth Cap. He started to show significant improvement on his seventh chasing start, the catalyst for which could’ve been the stable switch from Donald McCain’s - or simply experience and maturity.
Either way he won a good handicap at Kempton over Christmas off a mark of 140 on his second start for Bailey, for which he was raised 9lb to 149, and then he bolted up in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster a few weeks after the National weights had been released.
That 10-length win ensured he would go to Aintree rated 161, but racing off a mark of 149, and he was a prominent racer who jumped well, to boot, so not dissimilar to Cloth Cap in many ways.
Sent off the 8/1 joint-favourite, he ran a superb race from the front end, jumping soundly throughout, beating everything bar Mouse Morris’ 33/1 shot Rule The World, a maiden after 13 chase starts but one who had high-class staying chase form by virtue of his Irish National second the year before.
DEFINITLY RED – PU 2017 (10lb well in)
A year later it was the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster once again that threw up a live Grand National candidate.
This time The Last Samuri could only manage a 14-length second on Town Moor as Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red bounced back from unseating his rider in the Peter Marsh Chase to romp home under Danny Cook.
Having fallen two out in the four-miler at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival he had a few things to prove in the 2017 National – namely his stamina and whether his jumping could hold up – but from a handicapping point of view his credentials were crystal clear being 10lb well in.
Unfortunately none of this was to be definitively answered in the race, won by One For Arthur, as the 10/1 chance was badly hampered at Bechers first time round and was pulled up at Valentines due to a slipped saddle.
ANIBALE FLY – 4th 2018 (9lb well in), 5th 2019 (8lb well in)
RATHVINDEN – 3rd 2019 (8lb well in)
Anibale Fly was well in for two consecutive Grand Nationals on the back of two excellent placed efforts in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2018 and 2019.
Third to Native River at Cheltenham in 2018, he ran a superb race at Aintree a month later when fourth to Tiger Roll, trying to give him 9lb in heavy ground after being badly hampered at the first.
A year later he chased home Al Boum Photo at Cheltenham, again found himself well in for the National despite already being rated 164, and again he chased home the Tiger, this time in fifth, despite a 4lb pull at the weights from the previous year.
The 2019 renewal saw three horses 8lb well in at the weights in the first five home, with Rathvinden finishing third for Willie Mullins on the back of a convincing win in the Bobbyjo Chase, while the winner, Tiger Roll himself, had 8lb in hand on account of his 22-length victory in the Cross Country at Cheltenham.