Ben Linfoot discusses the main takeaways following the unveiling of the Randox Grand National weights on Tuesday, while revealing his 50/1 selection for the race.
The weights for the world’s greatest steeplechase were released on Tuesday ahead of the Aintree showpiece, which is to be staged for the 173rd time on Saturday April 10...
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Tiger Roll 166 (11-9)
The one we’re all talking about
BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood settled on route 166 for TIGER ROLL.
As the days ticked down to the Grand National weights being released Gigginstown’s Eddie O’Leary pleaded for lenience from Greenwood, saying he could retire Tiger Roll after Cheltenham ‘unless he’s given a chance’.
It’s clear the handicapper blocked out the noise and he said when the weights were released on Tuesday: “Mr and Mr O’Leary are entitled to any opinion they want to offer and I’m perfectly entitled not to listen to it. I can’t let distractions stop me from doing my job and I treat each horse and each race the same.
“It’s about knowing how much ability this horse has got. It’s really tricky to be sure and I’m not in the business of gifting races to any horse, never mind in the Grand National. It’s the same mark that Many Clouds ran off the year after he won it and I hope they take this opportunity to run to [try and] make history.”
So, is 166 fair for a horse that hasn’t shown much sparkle at all since his last Grand National win two years ago?
Since then he’s been fifth in the Boyne Hurdle, a 17-length second in the Cheltenham Cross Country, sixth in a Navan maiden on the Flat and then, last time, he was pulled up in the Cross Country handicap at Cheltenham in November where he was found to be lame afterwards.
The problem is, he’s run in a Flat race, a hurdle race and two Cross Country races in the last two years, so it’s very difficult to put a number on any perceived regression.
Having won the Grand National off a mark of 150 in 2018 and off 159 in 2019, I had a number of 164 in my head as the lowest the handicapper could possibly go and, all things considered, 4lb lower than what he was due to run off last year does seem perfectly fair.
Hopefully he gets the chance to emulate Red Rum’s magnificent achievement, but if he doesn’t it will likely be because he’s just nowhere near the horse he was rather than any ratings fallout. It’s a big Cheltenham for him.
Bristol De Mai, Easysland, Santini 167 (11-10)
The ones that head the weights
For all the Tiger Roll chat, he doesn’t even head the weights.
BRISTOL DE MAI is the best horse in the race on all known form, as his official rating hit a career high of 173 after his 2017 Betfair Chase romp and his win in the same race this season shows he’s still capable of operating to a very similar level.
There is an argument there that he’s fared the best of those towards the top of the list thanks to the bespoke National compression, even if he is only rated 2lb lower than his official mark of 169.
SANTINI is off his true mark of 167, a rating that has dropped 5lb this season due to some lacklustre runs. He’s a dour stayer, so the National could suit, but he needs to bounce back to form in the WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup if he’s to have any chance in a National off this rating.
David Cottin’s EASYSLAND is slotted in off his Cross Country rating of 167 following his demolition job over Tiger Roll at last year’s Festival.
Beaten at odds-on in the Cheltenham Cross Country Handicap Chase off the same mark in November, he looks the ideal type for the National if he can cut out the mistakes that blighted his performance when he was last seen.
Still a young contender in National terms at just seven years of age, Easysland would become the first horse of that vintage to win this race since Bogskar in 1940 should he triumph at Aintree this season.
Ajas 156 (10-13)
The one that was hard to assess
While Easysland has at least shown his hand in Britain following his Cross Country exploits, stablemate AJAS hasn’t – so there is an element of guesswork regarding his National rating of 156.
He was beaten by Sophie Leech’s Garo De Juilley in a hurdle race at Pau on February 7, a horse that was rated 140 at his best in the UK, but it was over a trip of 2m4f so we’re going to get a better grasp of Ajas’s National chances when he tackles the Cross Country race at Cheltenham.
A bold showing there relative to Easysland and Tiger Roll will sharpen his Aintree prospects into focus, although, like his stablemate, he’ll have the seven-year-old stat to overcome, as well.
Cloth Cap 148 (10-5)
The one that heads the betting
If you had to name one horse that has put down a serious marker for the Grand National this season most people would nominate CLOTH CAP following his superb victory in the Ladbrokes Trophy on November 28.
Raised 11lb at the time after a deeply impressive display of jumping and galloping from the front end, his fencing was perfect in first-time cheekpieces and my initial impression was that the hike in the weights could even be a tad lenient.
The runner-up, Aye Right, has subsequently run second in a Sky Bet Chase, nudging Cloth Cap up 1lb further on collateral form, so he’ll run off his true mark of 148 in the National – although he could prove that he’s well-in before that with Jonjo O’Neill nominating the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on March 6 as his likely prep race.
Given how he won at Newbury, he looks to have all the credentials for Aintree, where bold jumping and prominent racers are often well rewarded, so it’s not really a surprise he’s now the clear 16/1 market leader generally.
Significant rain at Liverpool in the build up to the race would be against him, but a bold-showing on Town Moor will highlight his claims from a handicapping point of view, so his odds could well shorten further in the coming weeks.
Cap Du Nord 142 (9-13)
The one that might just sneak in
The last time the Grand National was run the last one in was the 142-rated Joe Farrell and Greenwood suggested that mark might well be the cut-off point once again this year.
That will give hope to Christian Williams who trains the progressive CAP DU NORD, a horse who has been in great form this season after a devastating handicap chase success at Newbury, a good second to possible Gold Cup hopeful Royale Pagaille at Kempton and a close-up third in the aforementioned Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
Williams thinks being exposed to a marathon trip for the first time could bring about further improvement in Cap Du Nord, but he now faces an anxious wait to see if he gets in the race to form a dual-pronged attack from the south Wales yard, with stablemate Potters Corner (149) virtually assured a run.
Discorama 149 (10-6)
The one that’s worth a bet
Of those mentioned above I like Cloth Cap and Cap Du Nord, but there’s one more I’d like to highlight as Paul Nolan’s DISCORAMA makes some appeal in the ante-post market at 50/1.
This horse has a poor win ratio for one of his ability, a one from 10 strike-rate over fences a measly return considering his class, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Second on seven occasions in his career, he’s been a bit unlucky not to add a few more 1s in the victory column and that includes his seasonal reappearance when a short head second to Kim Muir winner Milan Native at Galway.
Milan Native was trimmed to 33s on Tuesday after trainer Gordon Elliott nominated him as a likely lurker towards the bottom of the weights, but Discorama gave him 4lb and almost got to him over the extended 2m6f in October. The pair have both been allotted 10-6 at Aintree.
Second at three Cheltenham Festivals, including in the National Hunt Chase over almost four miles, Discorama is all stamina and Nolan says he’s gearing him up for a crack at Aintree following wind surgery.
He said on Tuesday: “We’re pleased with him. He’s had the wind surgery, he’s back on the gallops now and he’s in the Grand National with the intention of going there.
“He could run before Aintree, whether it will be over hurdles or fences I don’t know. He’s not long back in, we blamed his wind for the way he ran at Cheltenham [when a disappointing fifth, beaten 39 lengths, when sent off 15/8 favourite for a handicap chase in November].
“Hopefully it will make a difference to him, we’ll see what happens.
“He went close in the four-miler and he ran two very nice races after that, he came out of it well, which they don’t always do coming out of that race.
“Hopefully for the owners, Tom Friel and Andrew Gemmell, we can get him to Aintree with a chance of winning.
“We wouldn’t be too worried if he never won again if he managed it!”
Discorama has been a nearly horse so far in his career, but he’s got the ability to land a big one. Off a mark of 149, 1lb higher than when he was a close-up third in last year’s Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival, it could be in the National, as he looks well weighted with the test of stamina in mind.
Previous Weights & Measures
- DRF highlights exceptional novices (February 9)
- Bailey keen to go with the Flow (January 26)
- Can Imperial rule in the Pertemps? (January 19)
- Grand options for weekend heroes (January 12)
- Metier's mark tempts Betfair run (January 5)
- Allart an Arkle super sub (December 22)
- Quality Street up a stone (December 15)
- Brave could break Nicholls' duck (December 1)
- Long Walk glory for Main attraction? (November 24)
- Coole Cody up 6lb for Paddy Power win (November 17)
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