Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Tuesday August 1 on Goodwood Cup day
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Tue August 01, 2023 · 1y ago
The Qatar Goodwood Festival kicks off on Tuesday and our value-seeking expert has four fancies on a quality-packed card.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced over 135pts profit, while he's 43pts up for the year after 22/1 winner Killybegs Warrior at the July Festival.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday, August 1
1pt win Designer in 1.40 Goodwood at 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
1pt win Eagle’s Way in 2.50 Goodwood at 7/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Lone Eagle in 4.35 Goodwood at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Lady Mojito in 5.05 Goodwood at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Take it easy with outside interest in Goodwood Cup
Tuesday’s Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes is being billed as a Royal Ascot rematch between Courage Mon Ami and Coltrane but this could easily be a very different story.
It’s going to be run on significantly softer ground for a start, and anyone banking on the unbeaten Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami doubling up 40 days on is assuming the son of Frankel will cope just as well with the conditions. He’s arguably going to need to be even better on it as you’d imagine connections of the likes of Eldar Eldarov, Emily Dickinson and Tashkhan are all relishing the prospect of having another pop at the favourite with the rotten weather very much in their favour.
The one I’m sweetest on at the prices, however, is Ralph Beckett’s LONE EAGLE, who travelled as well as anything in the Gold Cup and just ran out of steam entering the red zone with two furlongs to go at Ascot.
He’d previously given Hamish a small fright on soft ground in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester which is no mean feat, and we know he has the back-class from his three-year-old campaign that featured a neck second to Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby (was trained by Martyn Meade until this year).
He won his novice here as a juvenile and the Cocked Hat in pretty foul conditions the following May, so he’s something of a track specialist (third here last spring on his only other Goodwood visit) and while two and a half miles was clearly beyond him last time, he wouldn’t be the first horse not to get home in a Gold Cup but prove perfectly suited by two miles on a sharp track.
I’ll back him each-way here as he’ll be ridden prominently again and I’m not sure he’ll be an easy horse to pass if getting into his groove.
Prescott special coming to the boil
It’s another eagle – namely EAGLE’S WAY – who is the one to be on in the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap.
Millebosc was an eyecatcher from a wide draw on his second start for William Haggas and first of the current season at York last month and he’s obviously sitting on a realistic mark (97) having been placed in St Mark’s Basilica’s French Derby two summers ago, but the selection’s form looks a tad stronger.
After a typically quiet time of things in maiden company at two, Sir Mark Prescott’s charge progressed a lot after being gelded and stepped up in trip last year, winning all four starts and looking miles ahead of the handicapper in the process.
He was off more than 300 days prior to last week’s comeback in a Racing League event at Yarmouth (replay below) and, despite the revised mark of 96, would probably have won with a stronger pace to chase. He certainly wasn’t unfavourably positioned in the race, sitting second behind Frankie Dettori who made all on East teammate Cumulonimbus, but he was definitely the one to take from it having battled all the way to the line and gone down by a head.
He'd have had a 5lb penalty here if that tight finish had gone his way and it leaves him with outstanding claims running off the same mark with the freshness hopefully taken out of him.
The big question mark would be genuinely bad ground if further rain gets in overnight, but plenty of Free Eagle’s progeny handle it perfectly well and it’s hard to imagine this sizeable chestnut won’t be at home in the conditions having not been troubled by good to soft at Yarmouth.
He’s got the Timeform ‘p’ for more improvement to come and there are three or four confirmed front-runners in the field so Eagle’s Way will theoretically get the race run to suit if getting away on terms from stall seven. There's an awful lot to like.
Designer looks the part in sprint handicap
The opening Coral Handicap looks a reasonable opportunity for John Butler’s filly DESIGNER with the return of David Egan to the saddle a plus.
She’s been set some stiff tasks this year, running three times including two at Listed level. The daughter of Pearl Secret showed she wasn’t completely out of her depth in that sort of company when fourth of 16 in the Lansdown Stakes first time up at Bath, a race that threw up six subsequent winners and plenty who have run well in defeat at a similar level since too.
Designer hasn’t really kicked on subsequently but the ground has been too lively (much quicker than the official Good according to Timeform) and she’s been given a proper chance by the handicapper as a result, dropping to 92 having ended last term with a heavy-ground second behind Fast Response off 97 at Doncaster.
Conditions look far more suitable for her here and I like the draw in stall six with four of the past 10 winners of this race housed in either six or seven (two victories apiece).
Lady's first for Fahey?
It’s not on ITV but with two or three of the market leaders drawn very wide and extra places on offer in the Coral Fillies’ Handicap, I’m going to throw a small win-only dart on Richard Fahey's LADY MOJITO.
She finished on the heels of the now 95-rated Mystic Pearl and Runaholic (80) when third on debut at Thirsk last September before routing her opposition in a novice event on easy ground at Redcar the following month.
She completely blew the start when sent back to Thirsk under a penalty for her seasonal return this June but has since put in two solid efforts at Haydock after being switched to handicaps.
The latest run came from this mark of 77 on heavy ground and she just looked to be crying out for more of a test of stamina (backed up by her pedigree), so stepping up to a mile for the first time in her life could unlock all sorts of improvement.
I know it’s deeply competitive but Saffie Osborne (1-7 for the Fahey yard) should be able to pick up a nice slot from stall three and I can see this filly outrunning her odds in a major way.
Published at 1500 BST on 31/07/23
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