Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic Final Round
Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets from this week’s event at TPC Deere Run in Illinois.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic Final Round
2pts win Aaron Rai at 7/2 (General)
1pt Sami Valimaki ‘without Davis Thompson' at 66/1 (Betfair 1/5 1,2,3)
Those niggling pre-tournament feelings over whether Davis Thompson was just too short to back this week at around 25/1 or even lower were certainly put to bed in the third round of the John Deere Classic on Saturday. The in-form American fired a superb nine-under 62 at a very gettable TPC Deere Run to power into the lead on 21-under.
Thompson now leads by two from Aaron Rai (66) and Eric Cole (64) while it’s a further stroke back to Hayden Springer (66) and C.T. Pan (68). It’s noteworthy that Pan is the only one of the leading quintet to have won on the PGA Tour. In fact, eight of the top 10 are seeking their first victory at this level. Then again, this has been a good tournament for breakthrough seekers.
“Everybody is hungry. That's what makes it difficult out here,” said Thompson after adding that 62 to rounds of 63 and 67. “There’s a lot of losers every week out here. You can have great weeks and finish top 10. I guess it was just my day today. Hit a lot of good shots on the back nine and finished the round off well.”
Thompson shot four strokes lower than Rai in round three and yet the Englishman had outscored him by the same margin the day before. That’s the danger for Thompson in a birdie-fest like this. The variance is big; a two-shot lead is almost nothing and there are plenty of players near enough who could lay down a 62 on him.
Perhaps history can help us. Where did past winners sit after 54 holes? Alarmingly for those at the top - but presenting an opportunity for punters - is that two of the last three winners of this weren’t even in the top 10 heading into the final round! Sepp Straka was 14th with 18 to play before surging to victory last year with a 62 while Lucas Glover sat 12th after day three before hoisting the trophy in 2021 thanks to a closing 64.
If that seems a little wild and volatile, the counter argument is that before 2021, every winner back to 1999 bar Jordan Spieth in 2013 and Sean O’Hair in 2005 was in the top five with a lap to go. And, despite their positions on the leaderboard, Straka and Glover were only four off the lead. In short, 22 of the last 24 winners were no worse than four back.
If that latter stat plays out again, it narrows the list of winners down to the top five. At best prices we have 11/10 Thompson, 7/2 Rai, 5/1 Cole, 28/1 Pan, Springer. On first glance, there’s a temptation to think Pan and Springer scream value. They’re four back from the lead and just two behind the second place duo.
But one big key when looking at past winners here is how high they were up the Strokes Gained: Putting stats. Straka was 4th last year and from 2015-2019 the champion ranked 7th, 8th, 2nd, 1st and 2nd for SGP (no tournament in 2020). On the current stats, Pan is down in 38th for the week having only been 55th in that category in round three. Springer, who opened with that incredible 59, is 35th in SGP to this point. And I have a feeling after rounds of 59-71-66, his week will go good day, bad day, good day, bad day.
The one who appeals to me at the prices is AARON RAI. I’m on Thompson pre-tournament so that’s the desired result but Rai must be a big danger. He tops the Strokes Gained: Putting charts so far and that has turned into a big strength in recent weeks. Track his stats over the last few events and his SGP rankings have improved by the tournament: 71st, 63rd, 25th, 10th. Now he has the hottest blade in the field.
As he noted after completing a third-round 66: “I think tee-to-green the game has been pretty solid for quite a while now, for most of the season. Started to putt really well over the last couple weeks. I think that's probably made the biggest difference inside of the game. I feel in a pretty good place off the golf course as well.”
In addition, Rai played in the final group at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic before eventually finishing in a tie for second after shooting 72 on a tough day for scoring. That will surely stand him in good stead here and with two exemptions for the Open Championship on offer as well, his incentive couldn’t be higher. I’ll play him at 7/2.
For a wild swing at something more exotic, I’m going to have a punt on SAMI VALIMAKI at 66/1 in the betting ‘without Davis Thompson’. With the leader taken out, the 25-year-old Finn is four back and could just have something up his sleeve for Sunday.
A two-time winner on the DP World Tour, Valimaki was runner-up at the Mexico Open earlier this year while he closed with a 64 in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He’s done very little since, although 35th in Canada two starts ago hinted at something and this week he ranks 2nd for SG: Putting and 11th for Approach - the two most important stats if going off past editions at TPC Deere Run.
CLICK HERE to back Valimaki 'without Thompson' with Sky Bet
Posted at 0948 BST on 07/07/24
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