French racing column: Timefigure analysis on the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and more from Graeme North

The track located in the wealthy western Parisian suburbs put on a very interesting card that saw the latest appearance of a two-year-old I’ve mentioned before as potentially the best in France, Maranoa Charlie, who furthered his claims to be regarded as the best two-year-old in France in the opening race, the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon.

Only five went to post, potential rivals perhaps deterred by his romp at Chantilly on his second start where he never got out of fourth gear and won in a canter by a very long-looking eight lengths, but his four rivals did at least include the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Harvey who himself had won a minor contest at Clairefontaine on his previous start by six lengths.

In the event, neither Harvey (who’d run to a Timeform rating of 87 at Clairefontaine) nor any of the other three could get anywhere near Maranoa Charlie who once again went off in front, built up a large advantage and spent the last 200m in splendid isolation with his rider looking around for non-existent dangers, winning by eight lengths again but value for at least another three or four more.

Once again, it was hard to weigh up even with the help of detailed timing information whether the winner really is top notch or the opposition was collectively modest, but the official handicapper was certainly impressed awarding him a figure equivalent to a Timeform rating of 113, marginally superior to the 112p Timeform have rated him for now. By Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare, so bred on similar lines to this year’s Grosser Preis von Berlin winner Al Riffa as well as the yearling Amo Racing and Coolmore were fighting over at Book 1 earlier this week before getting sold for 4,3000,000 guineas, Maranoa Charlie looks set for a fascinating clash with the Jean-Luc Lagardere third Misguided, the other top French staying juvenile, in the Criterium International back at Saint-Cloud at the end of this month.

The best of the rest of the Saint-Cloud card consisted of four listed races, three of which were won by British or Irish challengers. Ralph Beckett took one of them, the Prix Dahlia, with Doha who had finished second to subsequent Group 1 winner Tamfana in the Atalanta Stakes on her previous start, while David Loughnane also went home with a winner after Sparks Fly returned to form under usual rider Laura Pearson in the Prix Coronation to land her second listed contest at the track; Joseph O’Brien also got on the scoreboard with Atlantic Coast in the Prix Matchem after hot favourite and Group 1 placed Havana Cigar looked to find the ground too soft.

Champagne can have his moment

Big-priced winners were to become a feature of the next two days at Longchamp but not initially with the first two Group events on Saturday’s card, the Prix de Chaudenay and the Prix du Cadran, going to the clear form picks Illinois and Kyprios respectively.

Illinois was made to work much harder than might have been anticipated in the Chaudenay, not by my fancy Shamarkand who looked to go wrong and was eased significantly, but by Trafalgar Square who runs a bit hot and cold but had twice finished runner-up to the top-class Calandagan earlier in the campaign. The front-running Illinois ran by some way the fastest last 200m, seemingly engaging interest again only once Trafalgar Square got upsides, and the St Leger runner-up was value for another length over the runner-up looking at the sectional times for all he probably didn’t quite have to run to his Doncaster form.

Kyprios didn’t need to run to his best either to get the better of some ageing rivals in the Cadran, also steadily run, not least with the second favourite and home-trained four-year-old Double Major eased right off after losing his action. In theory, Coltrane’s effort can be upgraded a bit looking at the sectionals but given his form has dropped 5lb-6lb below last year’s level I wouldn’t be in a hurry to be tinkering with the result too much which, Double Major aside, finished in the order the betting expected.

The day only got better for Aidan O’Brien as he quickly got the treble up in the valuable two-year-old sales race with Mount Kilimanjaro. His starting price was a much better indication of his chance than the 6/1 that had been available the previous evening given his two starts had come against Field Of Gold at Newmarket in a race that had thrown up numerous next-time-out winners as well as future National Stakes winner Scorthy Champ at Leopardstown and he seldom looked in much trouble in all honesty after being settled going well in second place.

He’s going to be an even better colt next year over a mile and a quarter or more, but I was impressed once again with third-placed Champagne Powder and feel sure there’s a race or two in him. As I wrote in this column back in August, I thought he fared very well running a very fast mid-section at Deauville on his debut, shaping far better than the result, and he did so again this time tried in a first-time tongue strap, running the fastest last 600m after being set a lot to do from a wider draw than the pair that beat him. Trained by Paul and Oliver Cole, he looks a banker for a maiden.

The Prix Daniel Wildenstein looked a very tight affair beforehand but the betting preferred French 2000 Guineas third Alcantor above all others and looked to be proved right for a long way as he travelled strongly just behind the German pacemaker before finding himself in front under 800m out on his first run since the French Derby. That absence as well as the very strong pace (finishing speed 102%) found him out inside the last 400m, however, leaving Ramadan who’d finished just behind him in the French 2000 to stay on best, Alcantor running the last 600m far slower than anything else in the first six and value by my calculations for a 4lb better upgrade than the winner.

Aidan O’Brien recorded a remarkable fourth winner on the day with Grateful in the Prix de Roayallieu though the eye-catching statistics that came through from the tracking data involved the runner-up Ralph Beckett trained runner-up River Of Stars. Drawn out in the car park in stall 16 - the winner was drawn 7 - and kept a wider course initially by her jockey Theo Bachelot, she was always in the first two yet reportedly covered 20 metres further than the winner.

Exactly what to make of that statistic is not easy to determine, however, given statistics in a similar ballpark also apply to third-placed Mistral Star who was said to have covered nearly 8 metres more than the winner and who might too have fared better still had she been delivered with her challenge later after moving from seventh place to first place in the penultimate 400m having also run the third-last 200m fastest of all. Connections of Grateful would argue that their filly was best anyway, having had to wait for a clear run in the straight before running a final 200m that was only bettered by Rouge Sellier back in fifth.

All quite perplexing, an illustration that more data doesn’t necessarily always make the picture clearer, but if there’s one thing we can be sure of, however, knowing the abilities of most of the field beforehand, it’s that the race was a substandard renewal.

Jayarebe won the final pattern race of the afternoon, the Prix Dollar, narrowly from Almaqam who had been six lengths behind him at Deauville last time but was only a head here and would have been in front in a few more strides. No disrespect to the winner who was belatedly gaining a first Group 2 win, but Almaqam comes out a 4lb better horse by my calculations if the published sectional times and calculated finishing speeds can be believed and he promises to be a very smart horse given soft ground and a mile and a half next year.

Gold one to take out of Lagardere field

Arc day itself ended up being contested on softer ground than had been expected after the track was hit by unexpected (as well as unexpectedly heavy) showers that weren’t apparent on the weather radar earlier in the morning.

Soft conditions wouldn’t be ideal for a filly who possesses such a dazzling turn of foot as Zarigana had displayed in the Prix d’Aumale but they hadn’t yet deteriorated by the time the Marcel Boussac came to be run and it seemed to me she was beaten more by an over-confident ride than anything else.

I don’t doubt that Vertical Blue’s winning performance was up to scratch for the race, and her win was another reminder that horses who can (or can nearly) overcome trouble in running and a poor position turning for home at Flat tracks in France, most of all have much shorter straights than we are used to here, should seldom be discarded, and she looks to have the size and scope to be a force next year too, but I’d still prefer the claims of Zarigana on a sounder surface. Bedtime Story wasn’t the best drawn widest of all and again started slowly but looks to have reached her peak.

Aidan O’Brien might have been out of luck in the Boussac but was on point in the Jean -Luc Lagardere, not with race favourite Henri Matisse but with Camille Pissarro who had not won a pattern race previously but seemed suited here by the return to softer conditions than he had been racing on through the summer. The race was strongly run – the finishing speed came in at around 98% from 400m out – and the two horses to take out of it I’d suggest were third-placed Misunderstood, who I referenced in my opening paragraph, and fourth-placed Field Of Gold. Misunderstood, who was dropping down from 1600m, is stoutly bred and already looks an out and out galloper who had little option but to make the race a test of stamina, so did well to hang on for third against two juveniles with top six-furlong form, while Field Of Gold was another who was unsuited by the sharper test than he had had at Sandown last time and will also be seen to better advantage next year.

Exactly how much depth the race had, however, behind the first four with Henri Matisse clearly not progressing and the remainder hardly better than 100 beforehand, I’m not sure however.

The Prix de L’Abbaye pretty much went to script with the race developing against the far rail, Washington Heights and Desperate Hero taking the field followed by Bradsell only for the softening ground to empty out Bradsell allowing Makarova, who had been sixth the previous year on ground that had been far faster than she prefers, to come through with a career-best effort on her final start.

Makarova had been third to Bradsell (still rated the better of the pair by Timeform by 7lb, clearly doing best of the first three in the Abbaye given the breakneck pace) in the Flying Five at the Curragh last time when drawn well away from the action along with Believing who sectional upgrades in her last two meetings with Bradsell had suggested she could get the better of the argument given a leveller playing field only to lose her place as things got messy around halfway with her rider blaming the soft ground before finishing off very strongly as usual to get third. No Half Measures fared best of those who raced more towards the centre while Desperate Hero, another up with the pace throughout, also emerges with plenty of credit.

If the Abbaye went to script, so too did the Arc pretty much.

Much had been made of the absence of numerous otherwise plausible candidates for various reasons, leading to a substandard renewal, and much as had seemed likely beforehand it didn’t take an outstanding performance to win it either, or even a much improved one with the three-year-old colts clearly an ordinary bunch, at the end of an unsurprisingly tactical affair lacking an obvious front runner.

Given that Continuous had looked so ineffective making the running in the Prix Foy, it was a hardly a surprise he wasn’t sent forward and as so often seems to be the case when Ballydoyle aren’t mob-handed their more fancied runner, in this case Los Angeles, opted to make the running, albeit at a steadier tempo than seemed likely given he had shown before he stayed the trip so well leading to a finishing speed of just over 107% from 400m out.

With most of those drawn high dropped in, the Arc only ever ended up concerning a few horses with nothing outside the first four really ever threatening. Conclusions drawn from the upgrades calculated from the finishing times suggest that the result on the day was the right one, hard to disagree with given the that supplemented winner Bluestocking had beaten the runner-up in the Vermeille three weeks previously when clear of the rest, but had Los Angeles made more of his stamina and Maxime Guyon been in the saddle on Aventure, who ran the fastest last 400m, instead of his owners first-choice Sosie (hardly surprising he made that choice but I feel sure he would have sat on Bluestocking’s quarters after his Vermeille experience instead of letting her get first run again) then the result may well have had a slightly different look to it.

The Niel form didn’t look any better afterwards the Arc than it did before with Sosie and Delius both looking one paced on top of which Look de Vega reportedly made a noise, while Shin Emperor and Al Riffa were others who had run solid trials but ended up disappointing. If you want a fitting encapsulation of the 2024 Arc, it’s probably that the stayer Sevenna’s Knight could get so close in fifth, running a faster last 400m than either Los Angeles or Sosie, after a slow start that put him on the back foot.

Beware Beauvatier on Champions Day

The Prix de l’Opera was a messy event, steadily run as it promised to be with only the out-of-depth Almara known as a front runner. She took the field along as well as she could, but a 110% finishing speed is testament to the tactical nature of the race and it’s no surprise that three of the first four home, the winner Friendly Soul, runner-up Running Lion and fourth-placed Fallen Angel occupied three of the first four places from 800m out.

The one horse who didn’t, French Oaks winner and eventual third Sparkling Plenty, found herself with the same scenario she faced at Goodwood in the Nassau, too far back in the short straight and running out of ground close home to claw back the deficit. By my calculations, she emerges with a 4lb bigger upgrade than Friendly Soul and a 3lb bigger upgrade than Running Lion, enough to see her emerging the moral winner for the second race in a row but no consolation to those who backed her at 6/1 the night before.

The Prix de la Foret attracted sixteen runners including Kinross who had run in the race in each of the preceding years, winning once, but he was put in his place well and truly (or bel et bien as they say in France) by the 1000 Guineas and Coronation third Ramatuelle who had been kept fresh for this. None of her rivals could match her 11.35 penultimate 200m that took her clear, and she will clearly take a lot of beating at the Breeders’ Cup, but it would have been interesting to have seen what third-placed Beauvatier could have done had he managed to get extricated sooner from a seemingly interminable pocket given he was the only one to run a sub 12 second final 200m when finally out in the clear.

It’s worth remembering that he beat Ramatuelle at Chantilly last year on similar ground after giving her a start and there’s almost certainly still next to nothing between them. That might be worth remembering should he come over here on Champions Day for the six-furlong sprint as has been mooted.

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