French racing column: Graeme North on Grand Prix de Paris and Sunday preview

Surprise was my first reaction when I read that French Derby third Sosie had been promoted to be third favourite for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe after his win in the Grand Prix de Paris last weekend.

His performance wasn’t that good, was it? Or have I missed something? Having re-run the Grand Prix video several times, as well as the French Derby, I’m not sure that I have. The arguments put forward in support of Sosie are that the latest Grand Prix was an up-to-scratch renewal, and his win was further evidence that the French Derby is evolving almost by the run into an increasingly strong piece of form.

I’m not sure either argument is watertight. Eight went to post in the Grand Prix of whom two were seemingly in there as pacemakers, though only one (Sibayan) ended up fulfilling that role and he didn’t do a particularly good job of it either for his stable-companion Saganti who could never get involved from the rear.

Of the other five besides Sosie, Illinois had won the Group Two Queen’s Vase but had been well held before that by the Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly; Delius had won the Group Three Prix du Lys where Saganti (winless since his second start as a two-year-old) had been second and Internaute (only win in a maiden at Saint-Cloud in April) had been third; while Tamfana had been fourth in the 1000 Guineas and third in the French Oaks and French Derby fifth Mondo Man had been beaten twice as far by Calandagan in the King Edward VII as he had been by at Chantilly.

That doesn’t sound like a vintage Group One line-up to me and with Tamfana looking a non-stayer after getting into second place briefly over 200m out, the still-inexperienced Delius ending up too far back and Mondo Man running no sort of race under a change of tactics, then a two-length defeat of the one-paced Illinois at the end of a race whose finishing speed was 108.4% is a performance best filed for me under ‘smart’ rather than ‘high-class’.

From 400m out, sectional upgrades as I calculate them see Sosie and Delius pairing 4lb ahead of Illinois and 3lb better than Tamfana though given she was a non-stayer, the latter's inferiority is better measured from the 600m marker from where she comes in just 1lb inferior. T

The idea that the French Derby now resembles some of the strongest three-year-old middle-distance form on offer seems to revolve around Ghostwriter’s subsequent third in a steadily-run Eclipse and Sunway’s subsequent second in the Irish Derby but besides Mondo Man blowing out here, runner-up First Look managed only fourth in the Group Three Hampton Court Stakes next time. I don’t doubt the French Derby winner Look de Vega is a top-class horse and it’s still fresh in the memory how easily he swatted aside Sosie that day, but did he beat a top-class field and would he himself have been beaten by Calandagan had that one been able to take part? Doubtful and maybe are currently my answers to those two questions.

Hard to draw firm conclusions elsewhere

The other two Group contests on the same card, the Prix de Malleret for three-year-old fillies over the same distance and the Prix Maurice de Nieuil were both unsatisfactory races in the French tradition with the runners ambling along to the straight at a crawl and then sprinting for home.

Races that evolve like this - the finishing speed from 400m out for the winner of the Malleret was 120.4% and the Nieuil 121.2% - are difficult to unpick even with the help of detailed sectional times.

From that point, for example, Nieuil third Ottery emerges with a 5lb better upgrade than the winner Double Major and 7lb better upgrade than the runner-up but she was only able to demonstrate a turn of speed like that on just her second try at a trip she’d looked a non-stayer at before because of the slow early gallop and had the race been a proper stamina test right from the start she’d have been swept away by those two stronger stayers. Exactly what the form is worth isn’t easy to know but despite those upgrades I suspect the runners finished in the correct order.

In the Malleret I’d fancied Candala to reverse French Oaks form with Survie when the pair had finished seventh and second respectively but wasn’t counting on the race being so slowly run, Candala pulling so hard and then meeting trouble twice in the short straight. I wouldn’t be giving up on her kept to this trip chasing a stronger gallop but even though runner-up Mosaique emerges with a bigger upgrade than Survie from 400m out, the winner was always doing enough in front and doubtless could have pulled out more if needed.

Prix Robert-Papin thoughts

Sunday’s action moved to Chantilly where the feature event, the Prix Robert-Papin, featured no French-trained runner for the first time this century with the home team having narrowly escaped a wipe-out back in 2017 when they mustered just one entrant.

There didn’t look much to choose on form between the Prix du Bois winner Arabie, the Empress Stakes winner Celandine and the Italian challenger Korisa who’d run out a five-length winner of the Group Three Premio Primi Passi but in the event Arabie ran out a ready winner, though might have been pushed much harder had the runner-up Shadow Army, who ran easily the fastest last 200m, not been ridden quite so cold or found a smoother passage through the field when asked.

The supporting Prix Chloe was a complete mess of a race with the finishing speed of the winner Blush coming in at 117.3% from 400m out. Third-placed Love Rush ended up running the fastest last 600m as well as the fastest last 200m, but she had a clearish run down the outside unlike Luiza Bere who ran the fastest penultimate 200m but had nowhere to go inside the last 200m and only ended beating one home. British challenger Skellet was given a ground-saving ride by Ryan Moore and had every chance.

The other Group race on the card, the Prix Messidor, wasn’t quite the farce the Chloe was but was a very slowly-run race all the same with the all-the-way winner Caramelito posting a 112.1% finishing speed from 400m out. That wasn’t quite as high as third-placed Andromede whose finishing speed came in at 112.6% for a 3lb bigger upgrade but things would probably have different had fourth-placed Fast Raaj not been hemmed in for pretty much all of the penultimate 200m. British challenger Ice Max wasn’t given much chance held up in last place and never seriously threatened for all he wasn’t beaten far.

Sunday preview

With Deauville on the horizon – the Prix Rothschild on July 28 heralds the first of their big summer Sunday meetings – this Sunday’s French Flat action is limited but does feature some British interest with Karl Burke’s juvenile Unspoken Love set to contest the Criterium de Bequet, a Listed contest for two-year-olds over 1200m at La Teste.

Unspoken Love stepped up on her Musselburgh selling win with an all-the-way win in a minor event at Pontefract last time and her running style will lend itself well to this sharp turning track, so I suspect she’s got less to find than her chance on ratings might suggest. Those ratings are headed by Fraise des Bois, unbeaten in three races at Tarbes including in a Class Two where she had the re-opposing Hello Jeeby back in second, and La Samana who was second last time out in a Class Two event at Chantilly behind Itsatenfromlen where she had the subsequent Deauville listed winner Tiego The First behind her in third.

Impressive Marseille winner Sardaigne looked potentially useful last time, albeit she didn’t beat much, while three winners in Spain add some international spice to an interesting event.

The other Listed event on the card is the Prix Sorellina and features a filly already mentioned in this column, Love Rush, whose official rating ended up being raised 9kg (20lb) on the back of her Prix Chloe third.

The fact she has been supplemented and turned out again so quickly could be seen as a tip in itself but given the scenario that day any one of several rivals could be put up against her.

Harmony Grey who was second in a Listed event at ParisLongchamp last time when the reopposing Obsess was fifth holds solid claims, as does Julica who was sent over to Royal Ascot to contest the Sandringham but finished in midfield and Zuna who was rushed into pattern company on just her second start but appreciated the drop to handicap company last time when doing well to overcome a positional bias in a steadily-run race. Anyone thinking of getting involved should be aware that a very low draw hasn’t always been an advantage here but none of those mentioned (other than Obsess) fit that scenario anyway.

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