Andrew Asquith is back to take an early look at the action at Sandown and Musselburgh on Saturday and has three recommended bets.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday February 3
1pt win Saint Davy in the 3.10 Sandown at 10/1 (Betvictor, William Hill)
1pt win Castle Robin in the 3.45 Sandown at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Afadil in the 2.50 Musselburgh at 9/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Betway)
Sandown and Musselburgh are the two feature meetings in Britain on Saturday and both are set to be run on what should be good to soft ground or thereabouts.
There are a couple who interest me at Sandown and first up is the Jonjo O’Neill-trained SAINT DAVY in the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle.
Ed Keeper has been put in favourite for this race on the back of an easy win at Newbury and very good performance at Cheltenham last time. He was arguably unlucky that day, looking the likeliest winner approaching the final flight, but he lost his momentum with an untidy leap and was never able to get back on terms. There was plenty to like about the way he moved through that contest and he should have even more to offer, but he has been raised a further 5 Ib since and is now 20 lb higher in the weights than when entering handicaps.
Saint Davy arrives with an even more unexposed profile, but I have been impressed with what I have seen of him so far for all you can pick holes in his form. He was an expensive purchase (£270,000) after winning an Irish point by eight lengths and he also made a winning start under Rules in a bumper at Carlisle last season.
He was quickly switched to hurdles, making a winning start in this sphere two months later over two and a half miles at Chepstow, looking a horse all about stamina as he rallied to regain the lead on the run-in while also being carried to his left by the runner-up. He also overcame some more adversity in that race when he slipped and severely unbalanced his jockey momentarily entering the back straight, so it was a professional performance for one as inexperienced as him.
It probably says a lot about the regard in which he's held that his next start came in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree and, while he ultimately found that step up in class coming too soon in his development, he wasn’t disgraced and that experience certainly won't have been lost on him.
Saint Davy was strong in the market for his return and handicap debut over three miles at Ludlow earlier this month and he created a very good impression, given a patient ride and again finding plenty at the finish to deny a solid, experienced handicapper in Emiton. That came on heavy ground, but he has handled ground Timeform described as good to soft when winning his bumper and first start over hurdles, while the hurdles course at the time of writing is softer than the chase track.
The handicapper has raised him 6 lb for his latest success which seems more than fair given Emitom ran to form and the timefigure wasn’t bad at all given it was a five-runner race. Saint Davy has plenty about him physically, his future sure to be over fences, but he appeals as the type who has even more to offer in this sphere first, and a likely truly-run race back in a bigger field should suit him well. Given he has the same, if not more potential than Ed Keeper, I’m happy to get him on side at the current 10/1 available.
My next bet on Sandown’s card comes in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase and I’m backing CASTLE ROBIN to follow up his win in the race last year. I fully respect the claims of ante-post favourite Blackjack Magic, but his best form has come on much softer ground, while Iron Bridge, who is second in the market, is probably a more likely runner in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in a couple of weeks’ time.
Admittedly, Castle Robin hasn’t progressed as expected following his win in this 12 months ago, but he didn’t shape too badly on his return at Doncaster last month, and this race has likely been a big target. Castle Robin wasn’t helped by several fences being omitted at Doncaster, but he plugged on in the straight like the run would do him the world of good, and he is now just 1 lb higher than when winning this race.
As we all know, Sandown can by a tricky track to jump round, but he barely put a foot wrong last year, his jumping a real asset in what turned out to be a comfortable victory. The emphasis was also more on speed than stamina, too, and that is likely to be the case again on Saturday, so everything looks in place for him to run a big race with his reappearance under his belt.
Over at Musselburgh the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle looks a good renewal and I’m prepared to go in again with AFADIL.
I put this horse up earlier in the season when he was pulled up at Cheltenham, but he left the impression he is working his way back to form when finishing third to Benson over two and a half miles at Musselburgh last time.
Afadil seemingly loves his trips to Scotland, winning the Scottish Triumph Hurdle on this card 12 months ago, and also winning a competitive handicap at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National Meeting last season.
It was encouraging to see him go with plenty of zest on his latest start, in fact he was doing too much too soon, always prominent but refusing to settle and expending too much energy. Afadil stuck to his task in the closing stages, still having every chance at the last but fading close home on the run-in.
On that basis, the return to two miles looks the correct move, and a strongly-run race round here should see him in an even better light. He is now 4 lb better off at the weights with Benson and I think he has a solid chance of reversing that form over two miles. A sound surface is also important to Afadil and, now just 2 lb higher than his impressive win at Ayr last season, he is clearly handicapped to go close, and I’m convinced we are yet to see the best of him.
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