Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Newmarket on Saturday
Andrew Asquith has picked out two bets for the Future Champions Festival at Newmarket on Saturday, including one in the Cesarewitch.
Weekend View: Saturday October 12
1pt win Starzintheireyes in the Zetland Stakes (1.50 Newmarket) at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesports)
1pt e.w. Manxman in the Cesarewitch Handicap (3.40 Newmarket) at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4, 5 - Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred)
Newmarket host their Future Champions Festival on Friday and Saturday this week and the main betting race over the two days is the Cesarewitch, an historic handicap over two miles and two furlongs.
It is a unique test for Flat horses, and this year’s renewal has attracted only 28 entries, meaning yet again we will not have a maximum field of 34 for a handicap which pays over £90,000 to the winner.
Irish-trained horses have dominated the race in recent years, with five of the last six renewals going back to Ireland, and trainers such as Willie Mullins (who won it three times in a row from 2018 to 2020), Emmet Mullins (who won the race 12 months ago with The Shunter) and Gavin Cromwell dominate the ante-post market.
The Willie Mullins-trained Sea of Sands is hard to get a handle on so it is no surprise he’s found his way to the head of the betting. He had some useful form up to a mile and a half when trained in Germany, and he dotted up on his first start for Mullins in a two-mile maiden hurdle at Listowel recently on his first start for two years.
Sea of Sands was well beaten on his sole try at around two miles on the Flat, though, and while it isn’t wise to question the Mullins yard, I would have slight concerns over his stamina. He’s definitely not a bet for me at 4/1.
The one I like at the prices is the Simon & Ed Crisford-trained MANXMAN, who is officially 2lb well-in able to race under a 4lb penalty.
He got into handicaps from a basement mark of 46 last season and quickly made hay, winning five of his six next starts at up to an extended 17 furlongs, including in soft and heavy ground.
Manxman shaped like a thorough stayer in those victories and he has continued his progression this year, beaten a head in a race which has worked out well over a mile and three quarters on his return at Goodwood, then finding only Pledgeofallegiance too strong back at two miles on his next start.
That form received a boost when Pledgeofallegiance went on to win the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot and Manxman wasn’t disgraced on his next start when finishing third back down in trip, surrounded by subsequent winners.
Manxman deservedly opened his account for the season in a competitive Racing League handicap over two miles at Southwell at the end of August, well suited by a return to two miles and doing well to pull clear of the remainder with Warmonger off a steady pace.
He won with plenty in hand that day, while Warmonger has since won easily at Kempton to give the form a positive look, and Manxman will meet him on better terms on Saturday.
Manxman won’t have any issue with the ground regardless if it gets any softer and I like how connections have booked very capable 3lb claimer Sean Dylan Bowen, who will be having his first ride for the yard. He’s presumably been saved for this race since and here should be even more to come from him and his strong-travelling style will be well suited to the demands of the Cesarewitch.
There is a competitive sprint handicap at York on Saturday but, they are hard enough to solve when you have all of the finer details, never mind the Tuesday before, so I’m reluctant to put anything forward there, and of the remainder of races priced up there is only really the Zetland Stakes which makes any appeal.
As with a lot of juvenile pattern races at Newmarket this season, Aidan O’Brien has plenty of entries in the Zetland, so it is likely to cut up somewhat, especially as the more interesting O’Brien horses entered in this will likely have the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on their agenda, a Group 1 worth much more money over the same trip later this month (Aftermath, Delacroix, Lambourn, Shackleton and Trinity College all hold entries for that race).
Therefore, I want to have a stab at one who I think has the potential to shorten, and that is the Ralph Beckett-trained STARZINTHEIREYES.
The Zetland is a unique test for two-year-olds, the only Listed or pattern race run over one and a quarter miles in Britain, and some horses can improve significantly for it. Starzintheireyes is yet to race beyond seven furlongs, so this is a big step up in trip, but we are yet to scratch the surface with him, and I think he shapes like he’ll appreciate this much longer trip.
His debut form is very strong, finishing runner-up to Field of Gold (who had the benefit of previous experience) on his debut at Newmarket and that rival has gone on to win the Solario Stakes and not beaten too far in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last weekend.
Starzintheireyes was doing all of his best work at the finish that day, too, staying on well to the line under considerate handling, and he didn’t need to improve on that effort when going one place better in soft ground at Leicester last time.
He still looked rough around the edges on that occasion, too, having to be hurried along to keep tabs on the pace setters but really coming into his own in the final furlong, soon getting on top of his rivals and not slowing down passing the line.
His sire Starspangledbanner is an influence of speed, but his dam was a useful winner up to a mile and a quarter and is a half-sister to very smart Crystal Ocean, who finished runner-up in the St Leger and won over a mile and a half. Furthermore, his granddam, Crystal Etoile, stayed a mile and a quarter, and is a half-sister to smart winner up to a mile and a half Crystal Capella.
Starzintheireyes is from a very good middle-distance family on dam’s side of his pedigree and it is interesting that Ralph Beckett has only entered him in the Zetland, rather than leaving the option open for the Autumn Stakes over a mile on the same card.
Connections clearly feel he is more of a stayer and want to explore that avenue before next season, which is encouraging to me, and Beckett could hardly be having a better time of things at present having landed the Arc with Bluestocking on Sunday. There could be plenty more to come from Starzintheireyes now moving up in distance and I think it will help unlock his clear potential.
Preview posted at 1540 BST on 08/10/2024
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