Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Newmarket and Haydock on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to the action at Newmarket and Haydock on Saturday and has picked out three recommended bets.
Weekend View: Saturday September 28
1pt win Wimbledon Hawkeye in 1.50 Newmarket at 6/1 (Sky Bet, 5/1 Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
0.5pts e.w. Aberama Gold in 3.15 Haydock at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - General)
1pt e.w. Toimy Son in 3.40 Newmarket at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5 - Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred)
The Cambridgeshire at Newmarket is the big betting race this weekend and the plunge horse for this year’s renewal of this historic handicap has been the John & Thady Gosden-trained Roi de France.
It is a race that the Gosdens have a good record in and Roi de France could yet be another ‘group horse in a handicap’ so it is no surprise to see him well fancied having shaped particularly well on his handicap debut at Yarmouth last week.
Funnily enough, Roi de France was actually the subject of conversation with a colleague at the Timeform & Sporting Life golf day last week, and how he could be another Lord North, but he was a general 16/1 then, so I think we’ve missed the boat somewhat there.
There are a plethora of other horses you can make a strong case for in what is set to be another highly-competitive renewal, and the one I like at quite a big price is TOIMY SON.
He was a near-smart performer when trained in France, notably winning a Listed event over seven furlongs at Longchamp and, though it has taken a while for him to click for David Menuisier, he has found his feet this season and deservedly took advantage of a falling mark in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood.
Toimy Son had been shaping well over seven furlongs in the lead up to that success and he relished the return to a mile, getting a clear run down the outside in the straight but displaying a smart turn of foot to burst clear entering the final furlong.
His rider received a three-day suspension for careless riding as Toimy Son hung over to the far-side rail once clear, but he was always doing enough and certainly wasn’t stopping at the line.
He shaped quite a bit better than the bare result returned to the same course and distance last time, too, travelling well in rear and the last horse to come off the bridle but he got no run whatsoever. Toimy Son stayed on well to the line once in the clear, but the leaders had already flown and he was unable to threaten.
However, he confirmed himself still in top form, and would have almost certainly threatened the principals (some of which may reoppose here) with a clearer passage, so he still looks well treated from a mark of 95. The trip is a question mark, as this will be the first time he’ll have gone beyond a mile, but he shapes as though this extra furlong won’t be a problem, and there is also stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree – she stayed a mile, while she is also related to several winners who got further, notably smart winner up to a mile and a half Change The World, and her dam was a winner over a mile and a quarter.
Strong-travelling types are often well suited by the demands of the Cambridgeshire, while hold-up performers also have a good recent record in the race, too. The draw will have an impact, but the forecast ground shouldn’t be a problem, and at around 40/1 he looks overpriced to me with William Buick pencilled in for the ride.
Earlier on the card, Luther is a horse who I want to oppose in the Royal Lodge, and I would have thought that WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE would have been a little bit closer to him in the betting.
He has started at big prices on all three starts so far, overcoming signs of inexperience on his debut at Kempton, and beating another well-bred newcomer who was thought good enough to contest the Coventry next time.
Wimbledon Hawkeye’s raw ability saw him come out on top that day and he showed much improved form when third to Ancient Truth in the Superlative Stakes at the July Course next time. He shaped like a horse who was ready for a step up to a mile on that occasion, doing all of his best work inside the final furlong when meeting the rising ground.
He also left the same impression in the Acomb Stakes at York last time, seemingly finding things happening a little too quickly at certain stages but strong at the finish to finish second and split the highly-regarded The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court.
The Lion In Winter produced the best performance of the season so far by a two-year-old colt that day in a race which produced an excellent timefigure and that is easily the best form on offer among these entries.
Everything about Wimbledon Hawkeye suggests that he will take another big step forward now stepping up to a mile for the first time and he looks a rock-solid proposition.
The Royal Lodge could cut up quite a bit, with Aidan O’Brien responsible for no less than 10 of the 18 entries, and Wimbledon Hawkeye’s current price of 5/1 has the potential to be much shorter come Saturday afternoon. His dam is also a past winner on the Rowley Mile and we almost certainly haven’t seen the best from him yet.
My final selection is a little more speculative, as ABERAMA GOLD is entered in a couple of handicaps at Haydock on Saturday, one over five furlongs and the other over six, and he is currently jocked up for neither, but given the former race has substantially more prize money, I’m hoping David O’Meara opts for that one if any.
The angle with him is simple, the ground. It is currently soft all over at the time of writing, but the forecast is very unsettled later in the week, and there is potential for further heavy downpours. If it materialises then his chances will only increase further.
Admittedly, he hasn’t been at his best so far this season, but he is yet to encounter ground softer than good on Timeform’s scale, and he is at his best when the mud is well and truly flying.
He had a wonderful first season for David O’Meara last year, notably beating the ultra-consistent and likeable Apollo One when winning the Stewards’ Cup (heavy ground) from a mark of 95 and also scoring in a competitive five-furlong handicap (heavy ground) at Doncaster from a 1lb higher mark, too.
Aberama Gold attracted some support but again failed to fire in the Portland a Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, struggling from halfway and dropping back in the field from over a furlong out.
Clearly, that sort of effort won’t suffice on Saturday, but I expect him to prove himself a totally different proposition if the ground comes up testing at Haydock and there’s no denying he’s an incredibly well handicapped horse now 11lb lower than his last winning mark and 10lb lower than when winning the Stewards’ Cup.
O’Meara has a knack for bringing such horses from out of the doldrums when you might least expect it and at 16/1 I can’t resit having a small wager on Aberama Gold (as previously mentioned, you may wish to wait until Thursday to make sure he’s an intended runner).
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 24/09/2024
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