Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Newbury on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to the racing at Newbury on Saturday and has two recommended bets, including one in the Coral Gold Cup.
Weekend View: Saturday November 30
1pt win Liari in the 2.25 Newbury at 10/1 (Bet365, Unibet)
1pt e.w. Galia des Liteaux in the 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - General)
Conditions at Newbury this weekend are likely to turn testing, especially on the hurdles course, already soft, heavy in places, and they could have up to 20mm of rain fall on Wednesday.
At first glance, I was very interested in the claims of Queens Gamble in the Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (better known as the Gerry Fielden), but all of her form is on a sound surface, and the only time she has raced on soft ground she was below form in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. I’m sure she’s a well handicapped horse from a mark of 130, but likely conditions on Saturday have made me think twice.
Another unexposed hurdler that interests me is the Paul Nicholls-trained LIARI, who won his first three starts over hurdles last season, and was also very strong in the market when disappointing in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival.
The bare form of his three victories as a juvenile is nothing special, but clearly connections felt he had been handed a lenient mark at the Cheltenham Festival, and he can be forgiven for producing such a dismal display – he was let down by his jumping – in the most competitive environment he’d faced.
I thought he shaped particularly well on his return at Chepstow last month, though, his jumping much more polished on his return from seven months off, and he travelled through that contest like a horse who is on a good mark.
It is worth noting that the Nicholls yard wasn’t firing on all cylinders at that time, and he strongly left the impression that he’d come on for the run fitness-wise, still travelling well approaching the second-last flight but the tank began to empty not long after.
To his testament, he stayed on to the line well, closing on the tiring runner-up, and he also shaped much better than many from the same yard at that two-day fixture. Liari has been given plenty of time since and, though this will be the first time he faces his elders, he is now down to a mark of 130, which is 4lb lower than the one he raced from in the Fred Winter.
Four-year-olds haven’t got a great recent record in the Gerry Fielden, but Liari is a well-made type, just the sort who will go on progressing throughout the season, and it is interesting that he’s the sole entry in this race from the Nicholls yard. I believe he’s on a fair mark, will have no problem with likely conditions – he was hitting the ground hard at Chepstow and has won on heavy before – and he brings an unexposed profile to the table.
Another horse at Newbury on Saturday who will be suited by the forecast rain is GALIA DES LITEAUX for Dan Skelton in the Coral Gold Cup.
She is a very likeable mare who stays very well and handles testing conditions. Galia des Liteaux made a winning return to action around this time last year at Market Rasen in a Listed Mares’ Chase, but she endured a very hard race that day, and that had seemingly left its mark when she was a beaten 2/5 favourite in a similar event at this course on her next start.
However, she ran an absolute cracker when runner-up to My Silver Lining in a marathon handicap at Warwick at the turn of the year, attempting to concede 20lb to that progressive mare and the pair pulled miles clear of the remainder.
Galia des Liteaux was also far from disgraced when finishing eighth in the Grand National on her final start last season, making a massively eye-catching move from the rear with some excellent leaps to move into contention approaching the second Bechers’ Brook but that effort appeared to tell in the closing stages.
She shaped particularly well over an inadequate two and a half miles at Carlisle at the beginning of this month, too, unable to take advantage of her ability edge over the trip, but it was still a very good reappearance which will have surely set her up for a crack at this big pot.
That was a much easier reappearance than 12 months ago and she can reap the benefits now. This race should be perfect for her, as she likes to race prominently, jumps well in the main and she will be a danger to all if getting in the right rhythm round here. Broadway Bob will surely be up there at the head of affairs too, but hopefully she can sit close to him and present her challenge in the straight.
Galia des Liteaux will race from a mark 2lb lower than her Grand National one and I’m convinced she is capable of winning a race of this nature with her reappearance run under her belt.
Preview posted at 1340 GMT on 26/11/2024
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