Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Doncaster on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to Doncaster on Saturday and has two recommended bets, including one in the November Handicap.
Weekend View: Saturday November 9
2pts win Diamond Rain in the Gillies Fillies' Stakes (3.10 Doncaster) at 9/2 (Bet365, William Hill)
1pt e.w. Master Builder in the November Handicap (3.45 Doncaster) at 10/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - William Hill, 888)
There is a good mix of racing this weekend, Wincanton staging the Elite Hurdle, along with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree, and the November handicap takes place at Doncaster, which brings the curtain down on the Flat turf season.
I got stung last week with both selections not being declared, presumably on account of the ground – even though both horses had plenty of form on good ground – and similar conditions look likely this weekend at both National Hunt fixtures. I am therefore a little wary of those meetings as I have proved I can’t read trainers' minds.
Therefore, I'm going to concentrate on Doncaster, and there is an intriguing runner in the Gillies Fillies’ Stakes, a listed race for three-year-olds and older run over a mile and a quarter. It has attracted an interesting set of filles and mares at the five-day stage, but the one who stands out to me is the Charlie Appleby-trained DIAMOND RAIN.
She has an excellent pedigree, being out of Oaks winner Dancing Rain, and a half-sister to several winners, including Jalmoud and Magic Lily, both of whom reached a smart level of form.
Diamond Rain has also made a promising start to her career, beating Shaha and a host of subsequent winners on her debut over a mile at Ascot earlier in the year, and improving a chunk when following up in a listed event over this trip at Newbury just 17 days later.
That listed event often punches above its weight, with four of the last five winners going on to score at Group 1 level, notably Sea of Class, Nashwa and Warm Heart. Diamond Rain was impressive that day, travelling well throughout and just nudged into the lead around two furlongs out. She readily moved clear of her rivals in the closing stages, hanging a little to her right and having more in hand than the official margin suggests.
Diamond Rain was well fancied for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot on the back of that effort and, though she was disappointing in the race itself, it may be that she just wasn’t mature enough for such a test just a month and a half after making her debut.
She broke well but failed to settle in the early stages of the race, and was never able to get into the race from off the pace and William Buick soon knew her fate in the straight and wasn’t at all hard on her.
That was clearly not her running, much firmer ground than previously possibly a factor, but she never looked like landing a blow, and I’m not going to judge her too harshly on that.
A tall, good-topped filly, her time off the track since should have done her the world of good and hopefully the ground won’t be a problem. It is currently soft at Doncaster and, even though no rain is forecast, we all know that the ground just doesn’t dry out that quickly at this time of year.
Diamond Rain moves like a horse who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by some cut in the ground, though, while her dam was at home on a soft surface. She has a 3lb penalty to carry, but her potential opposition doesn’t scare me greatly, as I believe she has the potential to develop into a top-level filly next season, and a mile and a quarter round Town Moor looks ideal on her return to action for a yard that are finishing the season well. Three-year-olds also have an excellent record in this race.
This year’s renewal of the November Handicap looks competitive, as the ante-post market suggests, bookmakers going 8/1 the field and it is very congested in behind the market leaders.
Interestingly, only two three-year-olds have won the November Handicap in the last 15 years, a stat which surprised me somewhat, but it isn’t stopping me siding with MASTER BUILDER in this long-standing handicap.
Master Builder has progressed all the way through this year and his form is rock-solid, too. He opened his account in a heavy-ground novice over a mile and a quarter at Salisbury in May, edging out a horse called Subsequent, who has won four times since, the latest of those being a listed event at Ascot in some style.
He was very easy to back under a penalty on his next start in another novice at Kempton and, though he wasn’t competitive, he wasn’t disgraced. He proved himself a nice prospect when catching the eye finishing third in the Melrose at York on his next start in August, attracting support at big odds after six weeks off and shaping like a well-handicapped horse.
It didn’t take Master Builder long to confirm that impression, resuming winning ways in a competitive three-year-old handicap at Haydock a fortnight later, doing so in emphatic fashion from another promising sort.
Master Builder was far from disgraced on his latest start back at York, also, doing best of those who were held up in a race run at a muddling gallop and there’s no doubt he’s a horse to remain positive about. He shaped like a horse still on a good mark that day, cruising into contention but just never able to get onto the tails of the leaders, but he did stick to his task well.
He displayed a fair bit of speed that day, making rapid headway approaching the two-furlong pole and he also wasn’t help by the winner coming across him in the final furlong. Minstrel Knight, the winner of that race, is also entered in this, but such tactics will be much harder to pull off at Doncaster.
I have no worries about Master Builder dropping back in trip to a mile and a half, especially with the ground on the soft side, and he’s a well-made type, very much still learning his trade. David Menuisier continues in blistering form and Master Builder has the attributes to go very well in a November Handicap.
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