Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ascot on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to Ascot on Saturday and has found two horses to be interested in.
Weekend View: Saturday November 2
1pt win Harper's Brook in the 2.05 Ascot at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Victtorino in the 3.45 Ascot at 6/1 (General)
The National Hunt season is really starting to ramp up now, plenty of big yards starting to have more runners, and this weekend see’s the return of the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, along with a couple of other graded events.
The Wetherby card isn’t really a betting on for me at this stage of the week, though, but I do think Williethebuilder will be a tough nut to crack in the two-mile handicap hurdle (15:32). He shaped very well on his return, his first start since undergoing a breathing operation, and is just the type to progress right through the handicap for Dan Skelton this season. I’d say that race could also cut up with several having other options and he’ll likely start much shorter than his current odds.
Skelton has really hit the ground running, having 17 winners in the month of October at the time of writing, but 12 of those have come in the last week, highlighting the rude health of his stable as we head into the weekend.
He has a very interesting runner at Ascot in the shape of HARPER’S BROOK, who will make his stable debut in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase over two miles.
Now, this horse is a bit of an enigma – he has the Timeform squiggle attached to his rating – and he should have won a useful handicap at Ascot last season if he hadn’t pulled himself up in front.
Harper’s Brook does have a tendency to do that, hence his squiggle, but for 99% of that race he looked much superior to his rivals, making the running and having all of his rivals in trouble entering the straight, including the once top-class prospect Shan Blue.
Admittedly, that rival hasn’t fulfilled his early potential, but he is still a useful handicapper, and Harper’s Brook looked in a different league, setting a strong gallop and jumping the last with a big advantage – he traded 1.01 in-running on Betfair – but not doing a jot on the run-in.
Harper’s Brook travelled and jumped very well again when winning on his next start at Sandown, and he also overcame some bad interference jumping three from home. His main challenger fell at the last on that occasion, so whether he would have dug in on the run-in we’ll never know, but he was just niggled along to keep him interested and was seven lengths clear at the line.
He wasn’t in the same form in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen, but he is yet to run a solid race at Cheltenham, so I’m ok with putting a line through that effort.
Harper’s Brook is clearly a horse who possesses plenty of ability and he is just the sort who will thrive under the tutelage of Dan Skelton. Ascot are currently watering to maintain good ground, which wont be a problem for Harper’s Brook, and I’m of the opinion that he has the potential to be rated much higher than his current mark of 139.
Skelton has outlined this race as his starting point and, given he has gone well when fresh in the past, is having his first start for a bang in-form yard, who have a strong reputation of improving new recruits, he looks very interesting indeed.
Another horse that I’m keen to get on side at Ascot on Saturday is VICTTORINO who is set to make his return in the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase. He was selected in this column when making a winning reappearance in this race 12 months ago and, though he is shorter in the betting this time around, he is a horse who can progress again this season.
He won this race from a mark of 138 last season, but he did so with plenty in hand, showing much improved form on just his second start for this yard and first over fences (had plenty of experience in France).
Interestingly, he was very easy to back that day on his return from 223 days off, but he was clearly ready to do himself justice, and he confirmed the promise of that success when following up over the same course and distance in the Howden Silver Cup a month later.
His was visually impressive again on that occasion, catching the eye making rapid headway on the bridle to take up the lead jumping two out, and he was still going best when jumping the last where he went into a convincing lead, only to be closed down on the run-in when the race was in hand. He also recorded an excellent timefigure.
Victtorino didn’t fire on his next start at Cheltenham, but I’m not convinced that’s his sort of track, as he was soon beaten when last seen in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival.
In between those two below-par Cheltenham runs, he hit the frame in the Swinley Handicap Chase, also over this course and distance. What is noteworthy about that run is it came at a time when the yard was under a cloud, but he was strong in the betting and stuck to his task well, even after making some mid-race mistakes at his fences.
It is worth remembering that Victtorino is still only a six-year-old and he makes his return from a mark just 1lb higher than his last winning one. Furthermore, Venetia Williams hasn’t had a runner since June, but she has several entries over the weekend, and is very adept a readying one after a break. In the last five seasons, she has a 22% strike rate with chasers returning from over 200 days off, resulting in a £1 level-stakes profit of £87.11.
Victtorino’s two wins at Ascot came on ground that Timeform described at good, and good to soft, so forecast conditions won’t be a problem for him and he remains a chaser to remain positive about this season, particularly at this track.
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