Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ascot on Saturday
Andrew Asquith had an 8/1 winner and a place at 14/1 last week and is back with three selections for Champions Day at Ascot.
Weekend View: Saturday October 19
1pt win Montassib in the Champions Sprint (1.55 Ascot) at 5/1 (General)
1pt win War Chimes in the Fillies & Mares (2.35 Ascot) at 25/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Betvictor, Coral)
1pt e.w. Lattam in the Balmoral Handicap (4.35 Ascot) at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - bet365, William Hill, Betvictor, Boylesports)
It is QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, and it really does look an excellent day of racing, featuring four Group 1s, a Group 2 and the ultra-competitive Balmoral Handicap. Conditions are sure to be testing this year, the ground currently soft all over on the straight course and heavy, soft in places on the round course, and there is up to 25mm of further rain forecast, too.
One horse who is sure to relish conditions is MONTASSIB in the Champions Sprint Stakes. He did this column a good turn when winning the Sprint Cup at Haydock on his previous start – despite nearly doubling in price – where he beat three-year-old Kind of Blue by a head, plus a host of others who will likely reoppose on Saturday.
Montassib had also beaten Kinross on his previous start in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle and I see no reason why to abandon him now. He was likely easy to back because the ground didn’t have any soft in it at Haydock, but that didn’t stop him from coming with his customary late burst to get up on the line.
Admittedly, he didn’t have much in hand at the line, but he came from much further back than Kind of Blue that day, and I always thought he was doing enough once he’d got to the front, while he also got to Kind of Blue’s quarters with some ease.
Montassib is yet to win at Ascot, but I have long felt that the straight course at Ascot is tailormade for his run style, and it is worth noting that this will be his first start over six furlongs at this track. He has been a revelation since being dropped to sprint trips, his record over six furlongs a particularly encouraging one with his form figures reading 1511611.
Furthermore, his form figures on ground that Timeform described as soft or heavy read 011 (the duck egg coming in the Lincoln over a mile). William Haggas was surprised by his performance in the Sprint Cup in his post-race interview, which I’m taking as a positive, as he was either working back from this race or Montassib is still progressing. Either way, in a race which ought to be run to suit, in his optimum ground conditions, he must go very close once more under Cieren Fallon who is building some rapport with Montassib.
Another horse firmly on my shortlist on Saturday with conditions in mind is the David Menuisier-trained WAR CHIMES in the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes. She was very impressive in a Listed event in heavy ground over nine furlongs at Chantilly on her final start last season, stretching five lengths clear of the Andre Fabre-trained Sosie, who has developed into a very smart colt this year, finishing third in the French Derby, winning the Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Niel, and finishing fourth in the Arc.
That piece of form reads very well now and she proved herself a smart filly when finishing third in a soft-ground Oaks at Epsom despite looking ill at ease on the track. She started 50/1 that day but there was no fluke about that performance and, though it may not have been the strongest renewal of the Oaks, she was comfortably on top of subsequent Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me.
War Chimes was below form in the Irish Oaks, but I think you can overlook that run, as it came on ground Timeform described as good to firm and she never appeared to let herself down on it. She hung badly to her right in the closing stages on that occasion and it clearly wasn’t her true running.
I’m encouraged she has been given plenty of time to get over that run, as she is a well-made filly with plenty of substance, who will likely have benefited no end by some time off to fill into her frame.
Menuisier also stated in a stable tour ahead of the Irish Oaks that he would be much happier if the ground was on the soft side, and also mentioned this race as a potential end-of-season target. Kalpana has been installed a short-priced favourite for the Fillies & Mares, and rightly so on form, but this will easily be the softest ground she’s encountered, and both of her wins on turf have come on good to firm ground.
At around 7/4 she makes no appeal to me, and I’d much rather take a chance on War Chimes at around 25/1. Of course she needs to improve, but these conditions should bring out the best in her and she has the potential to progress another chunk after a break.
My final selection on Champions Day comes in the big betting race of the day, the Balmoral Handicap. The horse which catches my eye is LATTAM, who I actually put up in this space for the Lincoln at Doncaster at the beginning of the season.
He is another horse who thrives in testing conditions and he had some very solid form when trained by William Haggas last season. Lattam won the Irish Lincoln in heavy ground on his return last year and went on to finish second to the now-smart Jimi Hendrix in similar conditions in the Spring Cup at Newbury.
His last win came in a competitive handicap on the all-weather at Newcastle from a 1lb lower mark last summer and he also shaped better than the bare result in the Golden Mile at Goodwood on his next start when not much went right for him.
Lattam was only seventh in this race 12 months ago from the same mark he will race from this weekend, but he proved that this mark shouldn’t be beyond him when running a cracker on his debut for this stable in the Lincoln on his return this season.
I thought he was unlucky not to finish closer or go close to winning that day, making his challenge later than the eventual winner after being held up in his run and just unable to bridge the gap once in the clear.
He added to his good record when fresh that day (also made a winning debut and as mentioned made a winning return last year) and, though he hasn’t really built on that promise since, his next start came on good ground and he was far from disgraced when trying to give Elnajmm 11lb at Newcastle when last seen in June.
That rival has boosted the form since and will have to give Lattam 9lb on Saturday, so he will be 20lb better off at the weights and will also meet that rival in his preferred conditions this time.
I like the fact that Lattam has been properly freshened up since, given his record after a break, and you would think connections have had this race in mind for some time in the hope they would get soft or heavy ground. It is worth noting he remains relatively lightly raced for his age, while he is also a horse with plenty of substance.
Lattam looked a picture before the Lincoln and if Julie Camacho has got him back in similar form, he must have an excellent each-way chance at around 16/1 – the softer the ground the better for him, so there is no worries about the forecast.
Preview posted at 1340 BST on 15/10/2024
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