Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Aintree and Sandown on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to Aintree and Sandown on Saturday and has two recommended bets, including a 2pt selection.
Weekend View: Saturday December 7
1pt e.w Cruz Control in the 2.07 Aintree at 10/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - General)
2pts win Willmount in the 2.25 Sandown at 4/1 (General)
The Becher Chase at Aintree is the big betting race of this weekend and for the second week running we are low on numbers in one of the premier handicaps of the season. Only 17 were left in the Becher at the five-day stage on Monday (maximum field of 30) and that number has the potential to decrease further come declarations on Thursday, once again highlighting the pickle in which the staying chase division in Britain is in.
However, there is still a competitive look to this year’s renewal, with King Turgeon, Gaboriot and Chianti Classico all arriving in top form, and vying for favouritism at the time of writing.
King Turgeon took to the National fences with aplomb at the first time of asking in the Grand Sefton last month, jumping superbly throughout and winning with plenty up his sleeve even from 2lb out of the handicap. He will also relish the move back up to this longer trip, so his claims are obvious, but he’s priced right and I’m looking to take him on with a horse venturing over these fences for the first time.
The horse in question is the Tom Lacey-trained CRUZ CONTROL, who was very progressive in his first campaign over fences last season. He won three times, twice at Newcastle, and he also landed a valuable pot in a competitive handicap over an extended three miles at this course on Grand National Day.
Cruz Control had looked progressive prior to that victory, having won a lesser contest at Newcastle four weeks earlier, while those two victories were his only starts at around three miles last season (he had shaped better than the bare result over a marathon trip in the Eider Chase previously).
What contributed to his Aintree success more than anything was his accurate jumping under a positive ride from the front, which made it hard for his rivals to get close to him, and those attributes are exactly what you need in a Becher Chase. He may not have had much left to give at the line, but he is a horse who clearly stays well.
Cruz Control started joint-second favourite for a useful handicap at Punchestown on his next start and shaped better than the bare result, leaving the impression he was still in top form, but doing too much too soon, and he also wasn’t helped by being repeatedly hassled by a loose horse. He again impressed in the jumping department, but just had nothing left to give in the straight at the end of a pretty long season.
He returned over an inadequate two and a half miles over hurdles at this course at the end of October and, even from a lower mark, he wasn’t competitive, but that run will have almost certainly served as a pipe-opener to set him up nicely for this challenge. Cruz Control clearly goes well at flat, left-handed tracks and in my mind, he’s just the sort who will take well to the National course – connections are reportedly keen to run in the Grand National later in the season.
He remains unexposed at around three miles over fences – this will be just his fourth start at the trip – and the ground, which is currently soft on the National course, will be absolutely perfect for him. Cruz Control is a second-season chaser to be positive about from his current mark of 140 and, granted a clear round, I see it hard for him to be out of the frame.
Jonbon will be the star attraction in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday, but Nicky Henderson could also unleash another potential star from Seven Barrows in the Betfair Plays Different Handicap Hurdle over two miles in the shape of WILLMOUNT.
He won his sole start in points – beating Shannon Royale who is now a useful hurdler/chaser Gordon Elliott – and was purchased for £340,000 at the Tatts Cheltenham sale in February 2022.
Willmount was originally with Neil Mulholland where he won both of his starts in bumpers, reaching a useful level of form, before switching to Henderson at the start of last season.
He started 3/1-on for his stable debut in a novices’ hurdle at Newbury and he looked something out of the ordinary, his jockey originally wanting to get a lead, but Willmount jumping to the front at the second flight and was much superior to his rivals from there on in.
He jumped fluently, really attacking some of his hurdles, which is very positive to see on a debut, and he continued to crank up the pace from the front, easily moving clear without being extended in the straight and looking a really smart prospect.
Admittedly, he didn’t beat much on that occasion, but it says plenty about the regard in which he’s held that he started second favourite for the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle back at Newbury on his next and final start. Obviously, that run didn’t at all go to plan, in trouble from some way out after pulling too hard and seemingly not handling testing conditions, either (also lost a shoe).
Henderson reported in his Sporting Life Stable Tour that Willmount wasn’t right after the race and they pulled up stumps for the season, giving him plenty of time to recover. He has reportedly returned bigger and stronger and is still highly regarded. I must admit, I didn’t think he’d return in a handicap, but an opening mark of 130 is clearly too tempting to waste, and this is a pretty valuable pot anyway.
A slight concern is the ground, as it is softer on the hurdles course at Sandown (soft) on Tuesday, and there is the potential for rain from Thursday onwards. Hopefully, they miss the brunt of that (as Newbury did last week). Henderson also has Go To War entered and Nico de Boinville is jocked up on both, but that horse also has an entry at Aintree on Saturday, whereas this is Willmount’s only option.
Some may wish to wait and see if he’s declared on Thursday before playing, but the 4/1 on offer looks big in my eyes for a horse with the considerable potential of Willmount. I’d have him outright favourite and I’m pretty sure the momentum will gather as we get closer to raceday - he's an exciting prospect.
- Preview posted 1335 on 03/12/2024
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