Rachael Blackmore celebrates after winning the Grand National on Minella Times

The Blackmore Factor: Plunge possible #1

Five possible big gambles in the 2023 Randox Grand National

By Ben Linfoot

Horse Racing

Tue April 11, 2023 · 2y ago

We take a look at five horses that could be backed off the boards in the build-up to the 2023 Randox Grand National at Aintree.

Plunge possible #1 – The Blackmore Factor

She made history in 2021 aboard Minella Times when becoming the first female jockey to ride home the Grand National winner and few jump jockeys in the current weighing room are as well known as Rachael Blackmore.

Fresh from an emotional Cheltenham Festival success aboard Honeysuckle, it was noticeable how strong Minella Times was in the betting last year despite his poor form and 15lb rise in the weights and plenty of that confidence can be attributed to his jockey.

So who does she ride this year? It looks highly likely to be AIN’T THAT A SHAME for her principal trainer Henry De Bromhead, a nine-year-old second-season novice who got off the mark over fences in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park last month.

Currently 22/1 in a place and generally 20s, expect a market move for him when she is confirmed for the ride. It goes without saying that her other option, Gabbys Cross, a 50/1 chance for De Bromhead, would also be heavily backed were she to get the leg up on him, but this looks less likely.

🔥 Grand National quick fire horse-by-horse guide 🔥

Plunge possible #2 – The Russell Fairytale

When Davy Russell came out of retirement to ride Gordon Elliott’s horses in the absence of the injured Jack Kennedy the stage was set for Cheltenham Festival glory.

Russell had failed to find a winner the previous year in what looked set to be his last Festival before the temporary about turn, but the week couldn’t have gone much worse for the 43-year-old who went 0 from 16 for the meeting.

The closest he got to victory was a head second on Pied Piper in the County Hurdle, but before that he had finished runner-up on GALVIN, too, who ran a mighty race in the Glenfarclas Chase over the cross-country fences on softer ground than he would like.

Better ground could be forthcoming at Aintree and punters will well remember Russell’s exploits on Tiger Roll in this race, so general odds of 20/1 could be snapped up as the week goes on.

Davy Russell holds on tight to the Grand National trophy

Plunge possible #3 – The Red Rum Anniversary

It’s 50 years since Red Rum won the Grand National for the first time and guess what, Ginger McCain’s Grand National-winning son Donald McCain is represented.

“I don’t know if he’s going under the radar a bit,” McCain said in an interview the other day, but you can be sure his MINELLA TRUMP will get enough airtime leading up to the race given his famous connections.

The horse himself has racked up a deeply impressive strike-rate since he went chasing, winning eight times from 12 starts over fences, and while he’s used to small-field affairs his front-running and bold jumping style could lend itself well to this contest.

He prepped with a run over hurdles at Bangor and general odds of 66/1 are likely to be pounced upon the more we hear about Red Rum overhauling Crisp back in 1973.

Classic Grand National No. 1 - Red Rum (1973)

Plunge possible #4 – The Class Angle

Any number of horses could fit this criteria with the top 17 left in the race all rated over 150, but the one that strikes me as a potential plunge horse is Gordon Elliott’s FURY ROAD.

Who can forget the monster gamble on Monkerhostin in 2007 when he was backed right down to 8/1 co-favourite from big prices and one of the factors I put that down to was that punters were so used to seeing him run in top-level races like the King George and the Gold Cup.

Since Fury Road went chasing he has run in a beginners’ chase, one Grade 2 and eight Grade 1s, mixing it with the likes of Galopin Des Champs, and he ran well in second in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase over the conventional fences at this meeting last year.

Trained by a man who has won the National three times, and owned by Gigginstown who have landed the top prize on the same number of occasions, a significant punt on the Irish Gold Cup third does not look out of the question.

Plunge possible #5 – The Name Game

There isn’t a race in the world where having an eye-catching name matters more and with that in mind the 66/1 about BACK ON THE LASH could be worth getting onside in the week.

Part-owned by Harry Redknapp, this horse will not only appeal to thousands of the inebriated at Aintree on Saturday but pub punters up and down the land as well.

Ironically, Back On The Lash wouldn’t want any of the wet stuff as he’s a horse that likes better ground, the soft conditions at the Cheltenham Festival a viable excuse for his Cross Country flop.

He does have good form in the Cross Country races, though, a route worth taking note of in the modern National, and if the ground is not too soft good things could well come to those who wait.

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