York's Ebor Festival features some of the best horses in Britain and Ireland

Ebor Festival preview: Five major clashes at York including Paddington v Mostahdaf

By Matt Brocklebank

10:00 · MON August 21, 2023

Our expert looks ahead to five of the most anticipated clashes at next week's Ebor Festival at York, including a couple of fascinating rematches.

Paddington versus Mostahdaf (Juddmonte International, Wednesday)

Giant’s Causeway comparisons were already being drawn before Paddington won the Coral-Eclipse and - just like Aidan O’Brien’s great three-year-old from the year 2000 - he's since added the Sussex Stakes to his tally at Goodwood. As such, the Iron Horse narrative will inevitably go into overdrive if the son of Siyouni brings up a fifth straight top-class win in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International.

It’s very hard not to admire Paddington’s rise from winning the Madrid Handicap off an official mark of 97 at Naas just nine days after Galopin Des Champs had beaten Bravemansgame and Conflated in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (don't worry, I'd forgotten he was third too).

O’Brien keeps stressing how “unusual” it all is, and he’s not wrong.

Paddington has done it on heavy ground and good ground; he’s done it at a mile and 10 furlongs; he’s done it against his own generation and some quality older horses too. So what’s he got to prove?

Not a lot, would be the one-liner, but if we're clutching for stones to throw at him then York is something new and only one of his eight career starts has come on a left-handed track. That was the easy enough aforementioned victory at Naas, but it clearly came at the expense of some vastly inferior opposition, which brings us to the next point which is the fact he’s taking on an even better calibre of horse here.

Emily Upjohn went into the Eclipse on a real high following her impressive Coronation Cup effort and was turned away quite comfortably, while Inspiral was well beaten off in the Sussex before bouncing out to win another Group 1 in France over the weekend, so it’s not like Paddington hasn’t beaten top-notchers, but it could be significant the Gosdens are willing to have a third go on the Knavesmire.

Timeform have Mostahdaf rated 129 - 1lb behind Paddington - after his breakthrough G1 win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and he could be really dangerous having been kept fresh since. A drying forecast should also help Mostahdaf, who had appeared tricky at times in the past (tried in cheekpieces) but is precisely the sort of horse his yard does so well with when it all clicks into place at the highest level.

There's a Derby winner in Desert Crown, a Dante winner in The Foxes, plus a thriving Alflaila on a five-timer also entered, but this year's Juddmonte is very much a clash between Paddington and Mostahdaf, with Frankie Dettori on the latter for a touch of added glamour.

And I don't know about you but I’m struggling to call it with any amount of convinction.

Is Mostahdaf the one to end Paddington's winning run?

Gregory versus... the rest (Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes, Wednesday)

There have been three odds-on favourites for the Great Voltigeur over the past decade and all three – Idaho (2016), Cracksman (2017) and Logician (2019) – have landed the lolly.

Cracksman and Logician were trained by John Gosden, who has three other Voltigeur wins on his personal dancecard thanks to Lucarno, Centennial and Thought Worthy, and now he and Thady have the most likely winner again – the burgeoning staying talent that is Gregory.

Whether or not he goes off odds-on largely depends on how the running plans of Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien pan out, but O’Brien is unlikely to run all five of his, while Appleby still has Castle Way and Military Order in the frame at the time of writing.

Whatever rocks up by way of opposition, Golden Horn colt Gregory looks the real deal alright, with a perfect 3-3 record and the Queen’s Vase form continuing to work out well – runner-up Saint George bustling up Castle Way and Tower Of London in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, and the five and a quarter-length third Chesspiece winning at Hamilton before going down by a neck to Desert Hero in the Gordon at Goodwood.

Stamina is clearly the favourite’s forte so dropping back two furlongs in trip around York might just be the one factor against him, but is the door really ajar for something with a bit more boot?

Like Gregory, the O’Brien-trained Continuous hasn’t run since the Royal meeting but his three and a half-length second to King Of Steel in the King Edward VII reads pretty well in light of the winner’s King George performance and we know he’ll be fine on the track having done some good late work on his belated seasonal debut in the Dante here in May.

Perhaps another eyecatching effort in defeat could tee Continuous up perfectly for a pop at the St Leger next month, but beating Gregory appears a big ask for anything at this stage.

Bluestocking versus Savethelastdance (Yorkshire Oaks, Thursday)

Probably not a vintage Yorkshire Oaks on the horizon but nothing lights the touchpaper in this game quite like a genuinely engaging rematch, and here we could have a belter.

It’s Bluestocking v Savethelastdance in round two after their slugfest in the Curragh mud last month saw the latter grab victory from the jaws of Irish Oaks defeat (replay below).

The slightly less experienced Bluestocking (three starts compared to the winner’s four going into the Classic) had bumped into another from Ballydoyle in Warm Heart – not once but twice – at Newbury and Ascot but had shaped nicely in the Ribblesdale and looked to have been brought to the boil beautifully by trainer Ralph Beckett when she hit the front with 200 yards to go under Colin Keane in the Irish Oaks.

Ryan Moore had other ideas on a relatively sluggish Savethelastdance, whose incessant grinding through the soft ground saw her get up to win by a snug half-length at the line.

It was cruel on Bluestocking, Keane and all of her connections, but she’s got another chance back on what will likely be a sound racing surface. With a fraction more improvement to come, Bluestocking has every chance of exacting her revenge and clawing one back against the might of Ballydoyle. It’s no great surprise the layers are struggling to split them in the antepost markets.

Kylian versus Johannes Brahms (Gimcrack Stakes, Friday)

I’m really excited about the Gimcrack as I reckon Richard Fahey’s Emperor’s Son could run huge at a nice price, but up towards the head of the betting we could end up with an old school British-Irish dust-up between Kylian and Johannes Brahms.

Kylian was actually beaten by Emperor’s Son at Carlisle in May, having also been made to settle for a place on debut here at York earlier that month, but he’s not looked back since, winning his novice at Newcastle before bolting up in the Dragon Stakes (Listed) at Sandown.

Unfortunate not to go close after being bumped about and finding himself well off the pace on bad ground in the Molecomb at Goodwood, Kylian now looks to be crying out for six furlongs and he’s basically a ready-made juvenile Karl Burke will love having part of the team heading into the back-end of the summer.

Johannes Brahms by contrast, a Siyouni colt out of a mile winner by Shamardal, has arguably belied his pedigree to this point after he won on debut over six furlongs before dropping to five for the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot.

Sent off the 100/30 favourite, he ‘won’ the battle among his group of horses who initially raced up the middle but couldn’t live with Big Evs (near side), the subsequent Molecomb winner who reportedly now goes for the Nunthorpe.

Either way, the form ties in nicely with Kylian from the Goodwood race and Johannes Brahms has presumably been given time to mature and fill out his considerable frame. If there’s a Guineas horse among them it’s surely him, but whether he’ll be sharp enough for this speed test first up after a 65-day break remains to be seen.

Kylian is expected to enjoy a step up in distance

Highfield Princess versus Bradsell (Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes, Friday)

We’re on repeat in Friday’s Nunthorpe as the top two from the King’s Stand prepare to tango all over again.

They raced side-by-side up the straight five furlongs at Ascot and as the tempo increased the nimble couple were close to coming cheek-to-cheek, Hollie Doyle forced into a right-left switch of hands with her stick on the eventual one-length winner Bradsell.

Not unlucky losers on the day, but Highfield Princess' connections Jason Hart and John Quinn could be forgiven for thinking they have a score to settle with Bradsell, and what better stage to turn the tables on the three-year-old than the famous track 50 minutes down the road where their star mare enjoyed her finest hour in last year’s running of the very same race.

The fact Bradsell won on his debut on this course last year adds another pinch of spice, but Highfield Princess’ York record reads 32112, and you sense adding another one to that tidy sequence will be the only result the HP team will truly be able to relish.

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