Dubai Carnival: Meydan preview and free horse racing betting tips
There is top-class action all the way on Super Saturday at Meydan - Richard Mann has three selections ranging from 11/2 to 50/1.
Recommended bets
0.5pts e.w Torosay in 1.10 Meydan at 50/1
The recent Coronavirus outbreak means Meydan’s Super Saturday meeting will now take place behind closed doors but that certainly doesn’t change the fact that this is a brilliant card which features two Group One contests.
All eyes - well, you know - will be on Barney Roy as he chases his second top-level success in the Jebel Hatta, trainer Charlie Appleby having done a fine job in slowly bringing him back to his best after an unsuccessful spell at stud.
The six-year-old was all class when comfortably seeing off old foe and the re-opposing DREAM CASTLE in the Al Rashidiya but neither have drawn ideally on this occasion and both might have to be played late.
That won’t worry Dream Castle, who came with a withering late run to cut down his rivals in this race last year and, following a slight dip in form since, I thought he shaped really well when just touched off over a mile here recently.
This nine-furlong trip suits him perfectly and while Barney Roy is surely going to prove an incredibly tough nut to crack, there is value in playing Dream Castle each-way at 11/2 given connections appear to have been working backwards from this race for some time now.
The second Group One on the card, round three of the Al Maktoum Challenge, sees Military Law bid to go one better than when chasing home Benbatl last month.
He looks the right favourite at around 15/8 with market rival Matterhorn needing to break better than when slowly away on his dirt debut here recently.
To his credit, Matterhorn finished his race well on that occasion to take third behind Capezzano and that form puts him firmly in the mix if he can break on terms. Should he fail to do so, stall three could prove disastrous.
The level of his smart dirt from in the US brings Quip into calculations but he didn’t show too much on his first start in Dubai in that aforementioned race that Capezzano won and he is another who muddies the waters even further in a race that is best used as a watching brief.
Bochart bids to take another step up the ladder when he heads the betting for the Group Three Mahab Al Shimaal and with chief rival Ibn Malik drawn out in 13, the stars certainly looked to have aligned for the former.
However, this will require yet another career-best performance from the seven-year-old and I wouldn’t at all be surprised were either of Switzerland or I Kirk to come out on top in another race that has a trappy look to it.
The Group Three Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint would appear much more straightforward with Space Blues likely to be a very short price on his first appearance since his fine three-year-old campaign last summer.
The Dubawi colt ended the season finishing placed in two European Group One events and like so many hailing from his great sire, expect his development and improvement to continue for some time yet.
I’m not sure the rest are anything out of the ordinary, though, with second favourite Ekhtiyaar stepping back up in class despite folding tamely when strongly fancied in handicap company here last time.
Given the lack of depth in opposition, expect Space Blues to win and win well but place money is definitely up for grabs and I’m happy to take an each-way chance on TOROSAY with quotes of 50/1 bordering on insulting.
The American raider made a highly encouraging Meydan debut when finishing full of running to fill the runner-up spot behind the in-form Waady and with the latter since claiming the scalp of Equilateral in Group Two company, that form is worth respecting.
For Torosay, it’s obvious to say that switching to pattern company having competed in a handicap from a mark of 93 will ask much more of him but he’s still lightly-raced and looks to be ready for this sixth furlong.
In booking Mickael Barzalona to do the steering, connections have made their intentions clear and at 50/1, I can’t resist a small play.
Stall 11 will probably ensure Moqarrar has too much on his plate in the Group Three Burj Nahaar but I was really taken with his winning performance over course and distance last time and he could easily run a huge race at big odds.
The day’s action concludes with the Group Two Dubai City Of Gold where Group One winner Defoe is the headline act.
Newmarket handler Roger Varian is no stranger to big-race success at this meeting having overseen the exploits of Postponed on these shores a few years back and it is interesting to see Defoe bid to follow in his footsteps.
As the betting would suggest, his form is superior to that any of his rivals can boast but he’s never wanted the ground too quick and I think he could worth taking on at the prices with PABLO ESCOBAR.
The son of Galileo has only made one appearance so far at Meydan this winter, getting his pocket picked late on when trying to concede 11lb to Universal Order.
Nevertheless, he still ran a fine race in second to suggest he remains on the upgrade and I’m keen to stick with him given there are a few slight ground concerns for Defoe, along with the fact this race is likely to be a stepping stone for bigger targets, while Desert Encounter was disappointing here last time when having a run to suit.
The 6/1 for Pablo Escobar looks very fair and he makes up the trio of each-way selections on a card that will be run in front of empty stands but will lack nothing in the way of quality.
Preview posted at 1700 GMT on 06/03/2020
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