Christmas In April features among two long-range selections for the Coral Welsh National as our antepost expert looks ahead to the Chepstow feature.
Welsh National recommended bets
1pt win The Two Amigos in Coral Welsh National at 25/1
1pt win Christmas In April in Coral Welsh National at 33/1
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Last season’s Coral Welsh National was a really classy edition and could hold a key clue when it comes to finding the 2020 winner.
There won’t be a better jumper of a fence in this year’s line-up than THE TWO AMIGOS and Nicky Martin’s front-runner is too big to be missed at 25/1.
He went through the ranks two years ago, having switched from the point-to-point scene with an official mark of 109, and while on the face of it last season hinted that he may be in the grip of the assessor, I’m not totally convinced if you take his effort in this race in isolation.
Right near the head off affairs on the inside from fence one, he was plenty keen enough for a marathon race in heavy ground and yet coming to three out was still bang there when Potters Corner jumped into the lead.
The Two Amigos started to tread water a little after the last but it was a great effort all things considered and the four horses who went by him have since gone up around 30lb in the ratings between them.
They include eventual runner-up Truckers Lodge who looks likely to end up top weight this time around with Native River and Yala Enki seemingly destined to head elsewhere.
Unless he wins the Chepstow trial this weekend and picks up a 4lb penalty, The Two Amigos returns for another crack off the same rating and will consequently be 16lb better off with Paul Nicholls' horse.
It might be enough to turn the tables and at their respective antepost prices (Truckers Lodge 16/1 and The Two Amigos 25s) I’m happy to take that chance, especially after the selection made such a promising return to action when third over three miles at Bangor on November 11.
He’s eight now and is entitled to be an even stronger model so hopefully he’s better equipped to see out the entirety of the Welsh National trip (3m6f130y), not that stamina should be a concern given he won over a distance precisely three yards further on soft ground around Exeter in December 2018.
As an 8/1 shot on the day last season, I’d be amazed if we weren’t beating the SP quite considerably provided everything goes smoothly between now and the day after Boxing Day.
Christmas a topical choice on festive programme
One of the horses who did go past The Two Amigos in last year’s renewal was Prime Venture and he’s of interest again having gained what must have served as a confidence-boosting first chase success on his seasonal comeback at Sedgefield.
The big issue I have with that, however, is that he’s been hit with a subsequent 5lb hike for winning a three-runner race in the north that fell apart as it looks quite a harsh rise despite the horse appearing as good as ever that day.
He’s 25/1 too but so is stablemate Secret Reprieve and he might have a shade more mileage in his current mark after falling at Haydock last month.
He’s really lightly raced and only a six-year-old but half of the past 16 winners have, somewhat surprisingly for such a physically gruelling event, been aged six or seven, and he’s one to keep an eye on with a couple of entries on the Chepstow card this weekend.
Cloudy Glen slammed Secret Reprieve in a two-runner beginners chase at Haydock last December and Venetia Williams’ horse – another with a weekend option (entered in Sandown’s London National) – looked good when winning quite stylishly on his return at Fontwell in mid-November.
He’s into 16/1 for Chepstow on the back of that but at 33s I much prefer the idea of backing Fontwell second CHRISTMAS IN APRIL, who was conceding 3lb and will be 12lb better off in the Welsh National as things stand.
Colin Tizzard has won the big race twice in the past four years, with Native River and Elegant Escape, and he doesn’t mind running a couple so Christmas In April could definitely join the likes of Copperhead and Lamanver Pippin in the line-up (and potentially Native River again, of course).
The eight-year-old ran in novices’ handicaps at Chepstow on a couple of occasions last term, finishing second over three and a quarter miles last October, and he went on to gain loads of experience in ‘Nationals’ around the country.
After scoring at Fontwell off a mark of 120 he won the Sussex National at Plumpton, added the Devon National to his CV with a taking defeat of Perfect Candidate at Exeter in February, before pulling up in the Midlands National won by Truckers Lodge in March.
Plenty of the Tizzard team were unfortunately under the weather at the time and his comeback run behind Cloudy Glen was good to see, proving the Uttoxeter run all wrong, essentially.
He’s been dropped 1lb for that effort so he’s now just 7lb higher than when bolting up at Exeter at the start of the year, and he’s still only had the seven career starts beyond three miles. He loves soft ground and typically races close to the pace too, so he makes the staking plan as well.
The Hollow Ginge almost made the cut following his eyecatching fourth to Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy. The first-time visor really perked him up at Newbury and he jumped superbly for much of the way.
He’s another who will really relish genuine winter conditions going into the next few months but he’ll be 1lb wrong if heading to Chepstow as the weights were already published before being dropped fractionally earlier this week.
He can often get a little bit behind in his races which isn’t ideal for this course either, and while 50/1 would potentially look big if connections confirm the intention to run, he’s passed over on this occasion.
Published at 0900 GMT on 03/12/20
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