Donn McClean previews day one of the Punchestown Festival 2017 and he fancies Labaik - as long as he sets off.
Recommended bets: Punchestown, day 1
1pt win Labaik in 4.20 Punchestown at 5/2
1pt win God's Own in 5.30 Punchestown at 15/2
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A lot depends on how likely you think Labaik is to start. If you think that he is long odds-on to kick off with the rest of them, then he is value at 5/2 to win the Grade 1 Herald Champion Novice Hurdle. If you think that he is unlikely to start, then, obviously, he is not.
Strange, in one sense, to be concerned about whether or not a horse will kick off with the rest of the field in a Grade 1 race, but not so strange in another, when that horse has effectively refused to race in three of his last four races, and in five of his last eight.
But there is no doubting Labaik's talent, and there are reasons why he may be as good as gold today. For starters, he was as good as gold the last time we saw him at Cheltenham. He started off with the rest of the field in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and he settled quickly into his racing rhythm.
He had to have had a good experience that day, so there is every chance that he will be up for a repeat of that experience today.
Also, that was just the second time that Jack Kennedy rode him in a race. He didn’t start at Naas on his penultimate run on the first occasion on which Kennedy was on board, but you can be sure that the hugely talented young rider took whatever he needed to take from that experience, and implemented the learning at Cheltenham. Perhaps that was why he was able to get him to kick off in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
The slight worry is that, in Britain, the assistant starter stands behind the field in order to ensure that all the horses kick off. Perhaps that was instrumental in convincing Labaik to start at Cheltenham, and there is no such provision in Ireland. However, you can be sure that Gordon Elliott and his team will do whatever they can today to maximise the chance that the Monmartre gelding will start today.
So, if you are backing Labaik today – unless you are backing him in one of the special money-back-if-he-doesn’t-start markets – you are effectively having a double: that he will start, and that he will win given that he starts.
As long as he does start, he has a big chance of winning. There is no doubting his talent. He has won his three races for Gordon Elliott in which he has gone with the rest of the field. He was very good in beating his stable companion Mick Jazz at Navan in November under Ruby Walsh, and he was even better at Cheltenham.
He probably raced against the pace bias at Cheltenham. He raced out the back of the field behind a pace that probably suited the prominent racers. Six of the first seven home raced in mid-division or better from early. Labaik was the only horse who was able to get into the race from the rear. He made nice ground down the hill, he hit the front on the run to the last, and he stayed on strongly up the run-in.
He beat Melon by over two lengths, and Melon was well clear of the rest.
Melon is obviously very good, and that was just his second run over hurdles. There is a good chance that Willie Mullins’ horse will improve for that run, and he is a formidable adversary. That said, they should probably be closer in the betting than they are and, as long as you are prepared for the possibility that you will get no run for your money at all, Labaik looks like value at around 5/2.
Un De Sceaux sets a high standard in the BoyleSports Champion Chase. He is a top class chaser, he is three for three this season, he has won a Tingle Creek Chase, a Clarence House Chase and Ryanair Chase, and he is three for three at Punchestown, over hurdles and fences. As well as that, he skipped Aintree, and he comes here a relatively fresh horse.
That said, he is an even money shot, he is short, and he is not invincible over two miles on goodish ground. He is probably better on easy ground over the minimm trip. He has raced twice over two miles on ground that was officially described as good, and he was beaten by Sprinter Sacre on each occasion.
Fox Norton is the obvious alternative, he just failed to win the Champion Chase and he was impressive in winning the Melling Chase at Aintree last time. However, that was over two and a half miles, he seemed to appreciate the step up in trip, and the talk afterwards was of the King George. Colin Tizzard’s horse has run big races now at Cheltenham and at Aintree, and he may be vulnerable now at Punchestown back over two miles.
It might be worthwhile taking a chance on God’s Own. Tom George’s horse has also been to Cheltenham and Aintree, and you have to forgive him a poor run at Aintree, but he is so good at Punchestown that he could put that run behind him today.
Admittedly, he is also usually good at Aintree, his record there before this month read 212. However, he does tend to go to his right, and Punchestown plays more to his strengths.
He sprang a surprise at Punchestown in 2014 when, still a maiden over fences, he won the Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase, and he sprang another mild surprise last year when he won this race, beating Vautour and Simonsig and Special Tiara.
He would surely have gone close in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham last month had he not made significant errors at the fifth last and the second last. He only has 3lb to find with Un De Sceaux on official ratings, and he could be a player in the race.
Posted at 0900 BST on 25/04/17.