It's the final day of the Punchestown Festival and Donn McClean fancies Augusta Kate to offer value against Apple's Jade.
Recommended Bets
1pt win Augusta Kate in 3.50 Punchestown at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Sire Du Berlais in 5.35 Punchestown at 12/1 (Betfair Sportsbook).
Apple’s Jade is going to be difficult to beat in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares’ Champion Hurdle at Punchestown today.
The Gigginstown House mare was a revelation last spring when she danced in on soft ground in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree, before coming on to Punchestown and landing the Grade One four-year-old hurdle on this card last year.
It was a little disappointing at the time that she couldn’t win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle last November after fellow Gigginstown House horse Petit Mouchoir had fallen at the third last flight, but she showed her class and her battling qualities when she got home by a short head from Vroum Vroum Mag in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse a week later.
The Gordon Elliott-trained performer was also very good in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. It looked like she was going to be swamped by the two Mullins/Ricci mares Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag on the run to the final flight, but she stretched her neck out and battled gallantly up the hill to get home by one and a half lengths and a nose.
She is the highest-rated mare in the race by a fair way, and this two-and-a-half miles is probably her optimum trip.
Potential weaknesses? Not easy. She is short, that's one, and she has had a long season. This will be her sixth run this term, she has been over and back to Britain twice and she had a hard race at Cheltenham last time. Also, she was well beaten by Limini in February, the last time she ran at Punchestown.
Karalee is fascinating. Winner of her maiden hurdle on her debut for Willie Mullins at Killarney in May 2015, we didn’t see her again until she reappeared at Limerick four weeks ago, when she easily landed a mares’ hurdle.
This is a massive step up in class for her, but she should be better on this better ground and, significantly, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride her in front of Augusta Kate and Airlie Beach and Whiteout.
It can’t have been easy for the rider, however, and there may not have been much between Karalee and Augusta Kate, but the 6/1 that is generally available about the Yeats mare – no doubt influenced by the fact that Ruby has chosen to ride Karalee – looks big.
Augusta Kate has always been a highly-talented mare. Winner of three bumpers, she was in the process of giving Death Duty a real race in the Grade One Lawlor’s Hotel Hurdle at Naas in January when she came down at the final flight. She was disappointing in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham, but she bounced back last time at Fairyhouse, when she picked up again after making a mistake at the final flight to get the better of her stable companion Let’s Dance, the pair of them pulling clear of Barra in third.
Significantly, she had disappointed at Cheltenham before, in the bumper last year. So in two runs at Cheltenham, at the Festival, she has under-performed. There is a chance that she is just not at her best there, and her reputation may be suffering as a result. Cheltenham is obviously high-profile, defeats and victories there often have a magnified influence on a horse’s reputation.
Away from Cheltenham, Augusta Kate has won five of her six completed races, and finished second in the other, beaten a half a length into second place in the Grade Two Mares’ Bumper at Aintree last season. She is one for one at Punchestown, she beat Forge Meadow in the mares’ bumper at this meeting last year, and she could out-run her odds today.
It might also be worthwhile taking a chance on Sire Du Berlais in the Ballymore Handicap Hurdle.
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JP McManus’s horse ran a really nice race on his debut for Gordon Elliott to finish third behind his stable companion Mick Jazz and Cilaos Emery in a listed novices’ hurdle at Punchestown in February.
That looked like good form at the time, but it looks even better now. Mick Jazz had run subsequent Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Labaik to one and three-quarter lengths at Naas on his penultimate run before the Punchestown race, and Cilaos Emery won the Grade One Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Tuesday.
Sire Du Berlais has not run since, and he was withdrawn from an engagement at Fairyhouse because of the good ground. The ground is a little bit of a worry today, as is his lack of experience. But he did win (finished second, awarded the race) a 16-horse hurdle in France last May, and the ground was not rattling fast at Punchestown yesterday.
The upside of his lack of experience is the fact that he is unexposed, and that a handicap rating of 137 could underestimate his ability considerably. The step up to two and a half miles should suit, there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and the fact that he has already run well at the track is a positive. He is only five, he has lots of scope for progression, Davy Russell is a good booking, and he could run a big race.
For more of Donn's thoughts, head to www.donnmcclean.com