Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Saturday's quality action from Doncaster and Leopardstown, with two recommended bets on St Leger day.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 149.70pts in profit (241pts staked, ROI of 62.11%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday September 14
1pt e.w. Silky Wilkie in 2.25 Doncaster at 33/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts win Poet Master in 3.00 Doncaster at 11/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Japan has tempting contender
A fantastic weekend of quality racing in prospect and while it’s a slight shame Leopardstown’s Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes couldn’t form part of the ITV Racing Saturday programme, the Group 1 contest obviously merits serious consideration regardless of that fact.
You ignore Aidan O’Brien's record in the race at your peril and last year’s winner - the enigmatic Auguste Rodin - has had this top of his agenda since disappointing (again) in the King George at Ascot in July.
The plan will presumably be to have things teed up perfectly for him by stablemates Hans Andersen, Luxembourg and Los Angeles, and if he's on a going day then Ryan Moore’s mount will probably take the world of beating on what is essentially his home patch (also won the KPMG Champions Juvenile race here in 2022).
Big-race favourite Economics arguably doesn’t deserve to be quite as short as he is based on what we’ve seen to this point, but William Haggas’s horse is so lightly raced that he could be sitting on another chunk of improvement and – following the layoff – did at least back up what he’d suggested he might become in the Dante when engaging top gear late on at Deauville last month.
The bare form will need improving upon, but ultimately beating Hampton Court winner Jayarebe (who looked to have got first run around two furlongs from the finish) with two lengths to spare, and something up his sleeve, can’t really be crabbed.
The Irish Derby and Great Voltigeur winner Los Angeles surely won’t be sharp enough at the business end over 10 furlongs here, while Juddmonte International third and sixth, Ghostwriter and Royal Rhyme, have both been looking just a notch below top-class performers all season.
The closest I came to a bet was Shin Emperor, the Japanese raider who has been running well in Grade 1 races in his native land, including when third in the Japanese Derby.
He doesn’t have any collateral form that helps us fit him into this puzzle and it’s unquestionably a bit of a flier to come here before having a shot at the Arc, but his full brother Sottsass was fourth in the Irish Champion a few years ago before winning the big one at Longchamp, and you’d imagine the prevailing ground this weekend will play to his strengths.
There’s a chance he’s a few spots too big around 14/1, but the over-arching issue I have with Shin Emperor loops back to one of the original points made about the race in that the horse's regular jockey Ryusei Sakai will be having his first taste of the track at Leopardstown and appears to be facing a daunting task from a tactical perspective.
Poetry in motion...
The Betfred St Leger Stakes at Doncaster takes top billing on ITV and – as has been the case on several occasions over the years - O’Brien may hold the aces here too, although Ralph Beckett’s filly You Got To Me looked potentially over-priced at 6/1 after being supplemented into the final Classic at the start of the week, and so it has proved.
She boxed on tenaciously when second in the Yorkshire Oaks, just unable to confirm Curragh superiority over Content, who may have ended up on the more favoured part of the track on the Knavesmire, and I’d give her a big shout of downing the Ballydoyle trio of Illinois, Grosvenor Square and Jan Brueghel. Particularly if she settles, which isn’t absolutely guaranteed but does seem to be the case more now she's learnt how to harness her undoubted ability.
Bet of the day at Doncaster is Karl Burke’s POET MASTER, who looks the coming force in the Betfred Park Stakes, and is backed to concede weight all round.
The Group 2 penalty for his most recent win at the Curragh towards the end of July won’t make life easy, but he looked a Group 1 horse in the making on that occasion and has such an impressive strike-rate having now won five of his seven career starts.
He's disappointed on a couple of visits to Haydock, but probably found the good to firm ground a bit loo lively there when fifth of sixth in the Spring Trophy, and he’d given a strong hint of what was to come in Ireland last time out when winning well from a mark of 100 in a Newmarket handicap on his seasonal debut.
Seven individual subsequent winners emerged from that race on the Rowley Mile, while the Minstrel Stakes form has also received a couple of notable boosts since, despite looking a bit questionable at the time given how easily Poet Master brushed his rivals aside (replay below).
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A very strong-traveller who gets the seven furlongs well, I’m confident he’ll enjoy a return to Town Moor where he won a handicap in tremendous fashion at the Leger meeting 12 months ago. Underfoot conditions look like being absolutely ideal too, and I’d have him right among the favourites in this.
Stick with Burke in Portland
The big betting race on the card is the Betfred Portland and the progressive, sexy ones have inevitably found their way to the head of the market.
At the prices, it was a bit of a toss-up between Walbank, who remains quite lightly-raced and could be suited by this five and a half-furlong trip, and outsider SILKY WILKIE.
Another from the Burke yard, it’s hoped the trainer has a day to remember - with Fallen Angel back to action in the Matron at Leopardstown too – and although Silky Wilkie is a relatively exposed sprinter now as a five-year-old, he’s still capable of smart form and currently sits on a workable mark.
Rated 106 when third in last year’s Scarborough Stakes (Listed) here, and even higher than that when second to Kerdos in the Beverley Bullet on his previous outing, he’s slipped to the high 90s this time around and almost took full advantage when beaten a head off Saturday’s perch (97) at Bath in April this year.
He filled the same spot when runner-up to Jordan Electrics in Hamilton’s Scottish Stewards’ Cup in July and although a touch below that form in two runs at York since, he shaped quite well away from the bulk of the action when behind JM Jungle at the Ebor Festival.
This horse thrives on his racing, clearly gets on well with 7lb claimer Sam Feilden (won three times on him in the past) and I don’t mind the low draw in stall one, seeing as Apollo One should give those in the low numbers a decent target at which to take aim.
Published at 1600 BST on 13/09/24
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