Matt Brocklebank tipped two 16/1 winners last week – check out his preview and selections for Lincoln day at Doncaster, plus the jumps action at Newbury.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, March 23
1pt e.w. Dirtyoldtown in 2.25 Doncaster at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Adaay In Devon in 3.00 Doncaster at 14/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
1pts win Condesa in 3.15 Newbury at 25/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Spirit Genie in 3.35 Doncaster at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Unleash the Genie at long odds
SPIRIT GENIE, the final horse to creep into Saturday’s William Hill Lincoln off their correct mark, looks way over-priced in the Doncaster feature.
There are two horses below the selection on the racecard but they're both competing from 2lb out of the handicap whereas the mud-loving Spirit Genie, a son of Invincible Spirit, looks dangerously well treated on the pick of his form from last year.
That don’t necessarily include his eight and a half-length Leicester victory on soft conditions in October as that came in a bog-standard seller, the form of which isn’t worth much at all, but the following month he caught the eye in a big way when a fast-finishing second behind Dashing Roger on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, and he’s only running off a 3lb higher mark this weekend.
I can comfortably strike a line through the final run of 2023 as Spirit Genie clearly hated the switch back to an all-weather surface at Wolverhampton – having also been unplaced on his sole visit to Dundalk during his time with Jessica Harrington in Ireland – and he now resumes with current handler Jennie Candlish among the winners with her hurdlers.
She’s drafted in go-to lightweight jockey Kieran O’Neill, who is 2-6 for the yard, for this assignment and, while there's a bit of early pace all across the track, I don’t mind a high draw when the mud is flying on Town Moor. The going for the Lincoln has been soft or heavy just four times in the past decade and that includes Secret Brief winning from the highest stall (22) in 2016 and Tullius (also 22) finishing second in 2014.
Spirit Genie’s owners, John/Ros Marriott, had Eagleway finish sixth at 100/1 in the Lincoln a couple of years ago and it’s not difficult to see this outsider running a big race too, especially with forward-going horses like The Gatekeeper (17) and One Night Thunder (16) also among the high numbers, plus the well-fancied Liberty Lane in 20.
Hopefully O’Neill drops him in - tucked away from the forecast headwinds - and gets a suitably strong gallop to chase down late on.
Dreamed a dream by the old canal...
In the William Hill Epic Boost Spring Mile Handicap, Dylan Cunha’s DIRTYOLDTOWN looks the one to be on at a double-figure price.
He probably hit the front soon enough when winning the final flat turf race of last year at Newmarket - a seven-furlong handicap on heavy ground - but still went on to score by over two lengths, obviously having way too much in hand running off a mark of 77, having been rated 91 at his peak for previous trainer Grant Tuer.
This horse was well fancied for last year’s Spring Mile (17/2), unsurprisingly really as he’d finished a head second on his earlier visit to Doncaster the previous autumn, and I’m willing to give him a pass for what was a too-bad-to-be-true effort last April as he was too keen in the first-time blinkers (worn a couple of times since, without success).
In the end, it turned out he was drawn away from the bulk of the action out in stall two, but he looks to have fared more favourably on that score this time around (stall 11), and a 5lb rise for the back-end victory at HQ means he’s only back up to 82, still well ahead of the assessor if able to pick up where he left off.
Dirtyoldtown cruises through bad ground and he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame if getting the splits up the middle under Rhys Clutterbuck, who has ridden a couple of winners from 11 rides for the upwardly-mobile Cunha to this point.
Adaay to remember for Millman?
Tactics look like playing a major hand in the William Hill Cammidge Trophy Stakes and while Orazio could be the class act if bringing his A-game following a gelding operation over the winter, I’m also fairly convinced he wants a strongly-run race over this trip and could even be seen at seven furlongs before too long.
Last year’s Lincoln third Baradar is another who likes to arrive late off a good gallop and I’m happy to take on the talented but complicated Marshman, who wears a tongue-tie for his first run of the season.
The recommendation is to roll the dice with three-year-old filly ADAAY IN DEVON, who was kept busy at two by Rod Millman but kept on progressing all the way through, ending her juvenile year with a battling second to a Godolphin filly in a Listed race at HQ.
She showed a fine attitude that day, emerging two and a quarter lengths ahead of the (98-rated) third Navassa Island and, providing she’s trained on, Adaay In Devon looks a massive threat here getting all the allowances under Silvestre De Sousa.
It’s a fairly important caveat, but Millman has had his runners in great shape on the all-weather recently and her price more than compensates for the fact she was very much a nippy two-year-old who may well have peaked.
If she’s going to nick a Listed prize this season, it’ll most likely be a tactical affair around this time of year when the soft ground plays to her strengths.
The Con is on at Newbury
I was all for leaving the jumps action from Bangor and Newbury well alone this weekend but can't resist a dart at CONDESA in the British EBF BetVictor "National Hunt" Mares' Novices' Hurdle in Berkshire.
I get the impression she's nowhere near the finished article just yet but she was back on track, following a break of 121 days, when runner-up to Springtime Promise over this intermediate trip on soft ground at Sedgefield last time out in January.
She arguably could have won that day had she jumped the last a little more clearly and landed running, but it was still a cracking run in defeat and very much a new career best.
The winner had won her previous three and is now rated 134 having since completed a five-timer in Grade 2 company at Sandown last month, so the form stacks up well and Condesa goes handicapping for the first time from a mark of 123.
I can envisage her being well suited to the galloping nature of the track here and she's trainer Stuart Crawford's first ever runner at Newbury so must be deemed worthy of the trip. The 25/1 on offer in a place just looks out of line with expectations and I'd be keen enough to play at anything north of 16s.
Published at 1600 GMT on 22/03/24
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