Diego Velazquez v Ancient Wisdom: Who should be favourite?

William Buick is once again crowned champion jockey, Billy Loughnane the leading apprentice, Shadwell are the top owners and John and Thady Gosden have an unassailable lead in their quest for a first Flat trainers’ championship together. Frankie Dettori heads for the hills – the San Gabriel mountains to be precise – on the crest of a wave after an epic afternoon at Ascot last Saturday, while Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting kicks off on Friday.

But this Flat season ain’t over yet, and on Saturday we can look forward to the final domestic Group 1 at Doncaster, this year to be run as the KAMEKO Futurity Trophy Stakes.

And in Diego Velazquez versus the supplemented Ancient Wisdom we have what promises to be an old-school smash-up between the giants of Godolphin and Coolmore, something we’ve waited long enough for this season if truth be told.

Modern Games won the Lockinge back in May (no Ballydoyle representative for the first time in six years) but ever since 9/2 shot Military Order finished last behind Auguste Rodin at Epsom it has seemingly been a case of Charlie Appleby taking stock and planning for the future.

As the reigning title-holder, it can’t have been comfortable for Appleby soaking in QIPCO British Champions Day and all it had to offer as a mere observer. But the numbers alone tell us there hasn’t been anything intrinsically wrong with the Appleby horses this season, far from it given his incredible month-by-month strike-rate only dropped below 20% during May.

He was trapping along at a typically impressive 33% throughout September and at the time of writing is 10-26 (38%) for October. They’re fit and well, alright.

And while the overall quality of animal and strength in depth throughout the divisions may well be down, picking a spot – the right spot – has arguably been Appleby’s main weapon since taking up the baton at Moulton Paddocks. Which makes the decision to supplement Autumn Stakes winner Ancient Wisdom into the Futurity Trophy (at a cost of £17,500) all the more noteworthy.

The trainer has won the Newmarket Group 3 with Ghaiyyath, One Ruler, Coroebus and Silver Knott in recent years, all of whom went on to prove themselves in Group 1 company - though a couple of the quartet were narrowly denied victories at the highest level. Not one of them won the Autumn by three and three-quarter lengths, though.

Ancient Wisdom’s major improvement last time out came on his fourth career start and a lot clearly depends on what sort of progress Diego Velazquez makes on his third this weekend.

A flashy Frankel with four white socks and a 2.4million guineas price tag from Tattersalls Book 1 last October, Diego Velazquez was destined to make an impact in one way or another.

He was sent off 2/5 favourite first time up in a Curragh maiden won by subsequent G1 winners Thunder Moon (2020) and Al Riffa (2022) and powered his way to a wide-margin win from Guildenstern, himself a maiden scorer since.

DV was then thrown into the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions Festival and duly followed in Auguste Rodin’s footprints with a driven-out victory under Ryan Moore.

Unbeaten, unexposed and under the wing of a master trainer who has won Saturday’s feature 11 times in the past - three of whom went on to win the Derby - but it's not hard to argue that Diego Velazquez is also now a little under-priced.

There's a ‘p’ attached to the figure of the O’Brien runner, but Timeform have him 10lb behind Ancient Wisdom on what they’ve done in public to this point, and yet the layers had him fractionally in front earlier in the week.

History dictates the Ballydoyle horse – clearly a leading light among an array of budding stars in the yard – is likely to resume his position at the top of the market come the off (Sky Bet have them 7/4 each of two at present), but it would be unwise to underestimate the importance of this one for Godolphin. And although it’s largely been a year to forget on many major racedays in Britain during 2023, when Appleby deems a horse good enough, they still very rarely let him down.

Diego Velazquez

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Timeform master rating: 108p

Form: 11

Futurity Trophy Sky Bet odds: 7/4

The pros:

• The choice of Aidan O'Brien, who is bidding for a 12th victory in the race
• Superb pedigree, being a son of Frankel and closely related to Broome and Point Lonsdale
• Won traditionally strong Leopardstown G2 and the form has worked out well

The cons:

• Had to work quite hard last time, already looks ready for further than a mile
• Unproven on soft ground (plenty more rain in the forecast), though he's bred to cope
• Inevitably already a very short price

Ancient Wisdom

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Timeform master rating: 118

Form: 1131

Futurity Trophy Sky Bet odds: 7/4

The pros:

• Fourth highest-rated two-year-old in Britain and Ireland with Timeform
• Beautifully-bred son of Dubawi, from the family of Goldikova and Galikova
• Plenty of experience to draw upon after four starts
• Wide-margin winner of a race his trainer has used as a springboard for some of his best horses
• Has plenty of natural speed but handled the move up to a mile well last time

The cons:

• Only third the one time he's bumped into a genuine top-class horse in Rosallion at Ascot
• Trainer yet to win a Futurity Trophy, or a Group 1 juvenile race this year

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