Craven Meeting preview: Newmarket course guide and statistics
The preparation for the Craven Meeting at Newmarket starts here with Timeform's in-depth guide, featuring all the key facts and figures.
Timeform's Newmarket (Rowley Mile) course guide
The Cesarewitch course is two and a half miles long, with a single right-handed turn at halfway, creating a ten-furlong straight course, the longest in the country.
A wide, galloping track with an uphill finish that is ideal for the big, long-striding horse, except for the descent into the Dip where those types can become unbalanced.
Ability to see out the trip thoroughly is essential, and those that commit for home too early can be caught out by the uphill run to the line.
Leading active jockeys at the Craven Meeting
(minimum 10 rides)
Other points to consider
- William Buick is the most successful jockey at the Craven Meeting in the last five years with 16 winners, showing a profit of 15.32 points at Betfair SP. Buick has enjoyed 15 winners from 39 rides (38.46% strike rate) at the Craven Meeting when teaming up with Charlie Appleby. Those 15 winners have returned a profit of 25.39 points at Betfair SP. Native Trail will spearhead a strong team for Buick and Appleby at this year’s meeting when he lines up in Wednesday’s Craven Stakes.
- Frankie Dettori has ridden six winners at the Craven Meeting in the last five years, showing a profit of 4.95 points at Betfair SP. All six of those wins were achieved on horses from the Gosden stable and that partnership has returned a profit of 20.95 points when teaming up at the Craven Meeting. Dettori has been booked to ride Megallan for John and Thady Gosden in Tuesday’s Earl of Sefton Stakes.
Leading active trainers at the Craven Meeting
(minimum 10 runners)
Others points to consider
- Charlie Appleby is the most successful trainer at the Craven Meeting in the last five years with 16 winners, showing a profit of 18.60 points at Betfair SP. Appleby has notably won two of the last three renewals of the Craven Stakes with Masar (2018) and Master of The Seas (2021), while the trainer has a particularly strong record at the meeting with debutants, saddling six winners from 11 runners (54.55% strike rate). Appleby has no fewer than four unraced colts to choose from in the entries for Wednesday’s Wood Ditton.
- Stuart Williams has been the most profitable trainer to follow at the Craven Meeting in the last five years. His three winners – Examiner (19.92), Keystroke (220.00) and Desert Dreamer (27.00) – were all sent off at big odds, giving their trainer a huge profit of 253.92 points at Betfair SP. Williams will have another small team of horses to run at this year’s meeting and none of them should be underestimated given his record of sending out long-priced winners.
Running style
The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British Flat races since the start of the 2017 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 17.98% and celebrating a profit of over 20,000 points at Betfair SP.
By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British Flat races during the same period have a strike rate of 7.47%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 5.48%.
- Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.
It’s worth pointing out that these figures can vary drastically from one course to the next. At one end of the spectrum there is Epsom, where front-runners have a strike rate of 27.38% since the start of the 2017 season, and at the other end there is Ascot, where front-runners have a strike rate of just 10.67% for the same period.
When looking at the overall data, Newmarket appears to fall somewhere in between. For context, front-runners have a strike rate of 18.90% in all Flat races run at Newmarket since the start of the 2017 season, once again faring better than horses who recorded an EPF of 2 (12.63%), 3 (8.14%), 4 (6.96%) or 5 (6.28%).
Best performances at the Craven Meeting
Sorted by Timeform performance ratings in the last five years
- Masar (123) – 2018 Craven Stakes WON
- Forest Ranger (119) – 2018 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
- Zabeel Prince (119) – 2019 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
- Steel of Madrid (118) – 2017 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
- Deauville (117) – 2018 Earl of Sefton Stakes Second
- My Oberon (117) – 2021 Earl of Sefton Stakes WON
The Craven Stakes has been won by several future stars over the years and Masar could hardly have been more impressive when landing the spoils by nine lengths in 2021. No horse has put up a better performance at the Craven Meeting in the last five years and, though Masar could manage only third when sent off favourite for the 2000 Guineas on his next start, he did go on to taste classic success in the Derby at Epsom.
The 2018 edition of the Earl of Sefton Stakes was arguably the best in recent years and Forest Ranger needed to show borderline very smart form to beat Deauville by half a length, while Zabeel Prince was another notable winner of that Group Three in 2019. He was well on top at the finish on that occasion, beating Forest Ranger by nearly three lengths, and that proved an ideal stepping stone to Group One glory in the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp on his next start.
Steel of Madrid and My Oberon have also impressed in winning the Earl of Sefton Stakes. Steel of Madrid showed improved form to make a winning reappearance in 2017, while My Oberon very nearly emulated Zabeel Prince after coming out on top in last year’s renewal, going on to finish a close-up third in the Prix d’Ispahan.
Nell Gwyn Stakes trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Absence – 20/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes were making their first appearance of the calendar year. Soliloquy was successful in 2018 after 221 days off the track, while Esentepe came out on top in 2012 just 11 days after finishing third in a minor event at Kempton. The average winner was returning after 180 days off.
- Course experience – 12/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes had previously run at Newmarket (Rowley Mile). 7/21 had previously won at the track, including Speciosa (2006) and Music Show (2009), both of whom had won the Group Two Rockfel Stakes the previous autumn.
- SP – 15/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes were sent off at single-figure odds. Fantasia (5/4-on in 2009) is the shortest-priced winner and Esentepe (28/1 in 2012) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 8.3/1.
- Timeform rating – 13/21 winners of the Nell Gwyn Stakes had a pre-race Timeform rating of 95 or above. Fantasia (111p in 2009) and Music Show (111p in 2010) were both highly rated before winning the race, while Karen’s Caper had a rating of just 80p before her victory in 2005. The average pre-race Timeform rating of the winner is 98.
Craven Stakes trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Absence – 19/21 winners of the Craven Stakes were making their first appearance of the calendar year. King of Happiness was successful in 2002 after 257 days off the track, while Masar came out on top in 2018 just 40 days after finishing down the field on the dirt at Meydan. The average winner was returning after 178 days off.
- Course experience – 12/21 winners of the Craven Stakes had previously run at Newmarket (Rowley Mile). 5/21 had previously won at the track, albeit their wins were all achieved in maiden/novice company.
- SP – 18/21 winners of the Craven Stakes were sent off at single-figure odds. Delegator (6/4-on in 2009) is the shortest-priced winner and Kool Kompany (14/1 in 2015) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 4.7/1.
- Timeform rating – 15/21 winners of the Craven Stakes had a pre-race Timeform rating of 107 or above. Toormore (121p in 2014) was very highly rated before winning the race, while Eminent had a rating of just 82p before his victory in 2017. The average pre-race Timeform rating of the winner is 109.