Nassalam in action at Chepstow

Coral Welsh Grand National tips and trends

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Wed December 18, 2024 · 6h ago

Matt Brocklebank looks over the past 10 runnings of the Coral Welsh National and highlights a few potential candidates this Christmas.

Coral Welsh Grand National: 10-year trends

Winner of a chase over 3m-plus*: 10/10
Placed (first 4) on most recent run: 9/10
Carried 11st or less: 7/10
Two runs max in current season: 7/10
Aged 6-8 years old: 6/10
Favourite (or joint-fav) for Chepstow: 4/10

*This includes Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National Trial, officially run over 2m7f131yds

In-form, out-and-out stayers tend to rule the roost

Whether it’s a product of an evolving breeding programme, where trainers and owners are sourcing their horses, ever-changing methods regarding the campaigning of those individuals, or a combination of several things all at once, staying chasers definitely seem to be getting younger and last Christmas Nassalam became the third six-year-old in the past decade to win the Coral Welsh Grand National.

There has been the odd veteran take home Chepstow’s biggest prize in recent years, with Mountainous officially 11 at the time of his second victory in 2015 (which was actually run in January 2016 after the original fixture was postponed), and it was a similar story with just-turned 13-year-old Raz De Maree, who won the 2017 edition of the race (in early-2018).

But six of the past 10 winners have been aged between six and eight, which remains a pretty strong statistic and should point punters towards the younger, more progressive contenders again this time around.

The absolute standout factor is stamina, which will come as no great shock as we’re talking about a three and three-quarter-mile handicap chase often run on very testing ground, but suspect stayers simply need not apply.

Patrick Mullins weekend reflections: Majborough, Future Prospect and Kalypso'chance

Storm ruins trial plans

We’ve bent the trends rules ever so slightly as the official trial for the Welsh National is run at the same track over a trip 89 yards (less than half a furlong) shorter than three miles and some publications understandably round it up to 3m. We’ve done so for the purposes of this piece.

The early-December trial has been an extremely good pointer in recent seasons, too, the past three winners who went on to contest the Welsh National (Secret Reprieve, Iwilldoit and Nassalam) all managing to double up in the big one a little under a month later.

Sadly, this year’s fixture on December 7 had to be abandoned due to the impact of Storm Darragh, which deprived us from seeing Gelino Bello and Good Risk At All. They were both set to reappear in the trial but would now be going into the main event having not been sighted for 699 and 366 days respectively.

No prep run is a worry and maybe connections will look for an alternative target. Both are priced up at 25/1 in places and, wherever he runs next, the Sam Thomas-trained Good Risk At All could prove to be very nicely handicapped (135) having made a good start to life over fences early last season before the wheels fell off in a handicap over a much shorter trip at this very same meeting 12 months ago.

Thomas (and owner Dai Walters) also has Jubilee Express entered and the seven-year-old fits just about every trend other than the fact he’s not been out since March, while the penalised Mr Vango has a lot going for him too, being an in-form, proven stayer with plenty of scope for further improvement after just a handful of starts over fences in his life.

Four favourites have landed top spot here in the past 10 years.

Third time lucky for Bridge?

At a bigger price (20/1), last year’s runner-up Iron Bridge made a pleasing start to the new campaign when third to Val Dancer at Carlisle last month and, having missed the Coral Gold Cup (ground) and Becher Chase (abandoned), he could sneak in here under the 11st mark.

He’s won over an extended trip, was placed last time out and is in the favourable age range too, while it’s not hard to imagine connections have been working back from another crack at this prize.

He’d be fully 13lb better off with the reigning champ Nassalam if they both line up again on December 27.

Click here to back Iron Bridge for the Welsh Grand National with Sky Bet

Favourite for Chepstow: YES (joint-fav)

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