Coral Eclipse analysis and tips: Masar v Roaring Lion form guide
Masar and Roaring Lion face off yet again in a fascinating Coral-Eclipse this weekend and Matt Brocklebank assesses their three previous clashes.
The Coral-Eclipse isn't a two-horse race. It was billed as such 12 months ago and 8/1 chance Ulysses spoiled the Barney Roy-Cliffs Of Moher love-in, with 50/1 outsider Desert Encounter getting in on the act in third as well.
But all the focus is undoubtedly on the 'big two' heading into Saturday's Group One feature at Sandown, as Craven and Derby winner Masar renewals rivalry with Roaring Lion.
They've met three times in the past and Charlie Appleby's Masar leapds John Gosden's Roaring Lion 3-0. The latest Sky Bet market reads 6/4 Masar, 5/2 Roaring Lion, but is there anything we can read into their past meetings which suggests the placings could be reversed?
Matt Brocklebank looks back over their head-to-head form and assesses their credentials for this weekend's 10-furlong test.
bet365 Craven Stakes - Newmarket, April 19
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1st Masar (7/2)
2nd White Mocha (16/1)
3rd Roaring Lion (8/13 fav)
Analysis: The SP of Roaring Lion says it all here. The Royal Lodge winner had gone down a neck to Saxon Warrior in the Group One Racing Post Trophy and big things were expected immediately. A combination of factors saw him trail in a well-beaten, disappointing third and Gosden's fears over his lack of race fitness were not only realised, but ruthlessly exposed by a hard-fit Masar. Masar, a good but not outstanding juvenile, had wintered in Dubai, where he'd had a lifeless run in a Listed dirt race at Meydan in March, and he looked a picture on his return to the UK. From the moment the gates opened and William Buick settled Masar comfortably at the front to dictate the pace, this was a non-contest. His raking stride ate up the ground and Roaring Lion had no answer long before they went into the Dip. Oisin Murphy coasted home on the grey in the closing stages and lost second at the line, but it was back to the drawing board for a horse who now had everything to prove and not long to right the wrongs.
QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes - Newmarket, May 5
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1st Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2nd Tip Two Win (50/1)
3rd Masar (5/2 fav)
4th Elarqam (5/1)
5th Roaring Lion (14/1)
Analysis: Both drawn high in the Guineas towards the stands' side rail, Roaring Lion and Masar had to mount their first Classic challenges away from the bulk of the action on the Rowley Mile and initially sat in a small group of just three, along with eventual last home, Nebo. Roaring Lion again sat on Masar's coat-tails but it was he who was arguably travelling a little better when the pace really quickened two out. Masar drifted right to join the main group, leaving Roaring Lion marooned and they both stayed on strongly to finish in the bunch of four who were a length and a half off the hugely impressive winner. So 2-0 Masar, but Roaring Lion - this time a largely unconsidered 14/1 chance - was looking a genuine work in progress and his subsequent annihilation of the Dante Stakes field at York was his coming of age as a three-year-old. There was talk of the Prix du Jockey Club, but the lure of Epsom proved too strong for Sheikh Fahad and hindsight suggests the son of Kitten's Joy was set a near-impossible task in the race they call the ultimate test.
Investec Derby - Epsom, June 2
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1st Masar (16/1)
2nd Dee Ex Bee (20/1)
3rd Roaring Lion (6/1)
Analysis: If you felt Masar had peaked in the Craven and plateaued in the Guineas, then you were not alone. A 16/1 outsider on his first try at 12 furlongs, Masar produced a dream performance and a dream success for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. This was a seismic shift on many levels, but for Appleby it proved a hugely significant example of his talents to keep improving horses, where in the past many would have expected this colt's form to tail off - especially after such a striking comeback victory in April. Masar was bred for the Derby - his dam won the UAE Derby and his sire won the Epsom Classic - so his price was surprising given the stamina fears over some of his rivals, chiefly Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, as well as old foe Roaring Lion. Given the circumstances, Roaring Lion ran a massive race. Reportedly far more settled in the build-up than he had been for the Craven or the Guineas, he switched off beautifully near the back of the field and was brought with his challenge turning for home before palpably failing to see out the trip. He was on Masar's shoulder again and going equally as well a furlong and a half out, while he just about got to within a length of the winner approaching the furlong marker before the petrol tank ran empty. Masar got a charmed run throughout and smoothly completed the job. He wasn't extremely strong at the line, suggesting a drop to 10 furlongs could be considered more of a positive than a negative, if anything.
VERDICT
It is testament to the genius of John Gosden that we are genuinely talking about Roaring Lion as a potential Coral-Eclipse winner, especially when you go back and revisit that ugly-looking comeback run in the Craven, when distinctly put in his place by Masar. Charlie Appleby has done a fantastic job with Masar, too, given he clearly lacked star potential at two and has endured a really busy spring campaign. That could start catching up with both of them at some stage but Roaring Lion has done it over the Coral-Eclipse trip of 10 furlongs and, on rattling fast ground which is going to play to his every strength, it is Gosden's maturing, runaway Dante winner who is narrowly preferred at the prices as they go back in distance for round four.