Constitution Hill in focus | Short-priced favourites that have been beaten this century
With Constitution Hill set to go off a very short price for the Tolworth, Ben Linfoot takes a look at the horses that have and haven’t justified prohibitive prices over the last 25 years.
Constitution Hill set to be very short for the Tolworth
Nicky Henderson’s CONSTITUTION HILL could hardly have made a bigger impression on his debut under Rules at Sandown in the Andy Stewart – Sandown Park’s Great Friend “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle on December 4.
Sent off 85/40 to beat impressive Newton Abbot winner and 6/4 favourite Might I, he travelled through the race like a good thing and surged 14 lengths clear of Harry Fry’s market leader after the last.
Rated 156P by Timeform after just one run over hurdles, the former pointer has quickly attained the tag of exciting prospect and is firmly expected to confirm his burgeoning reputation in the Grade One Unibet Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown this weekend.
Indeed, the horse he brushed aside by 14 lengths last time out, Might I, is joint second-favourite at around 6/1 with most bookmakers, so it’s no surprise to see Constitution Hill chalked up at 2/5 generally and as short as 2/7 with Paddy Power.
The naughty shorties
The question is how short will Constitution Hill go off? If he scares away the opposition that 2/5 could look a big price come declaration time and we might be looking at very skinny odds indeed.
Which got me thinking. Who are the shortest-price losers in jumps races this century?
I’ve found 10 that were beaten at 1/10 or shorter and the lowest-priced loser of them all was TREE OF LIBERTY, trained by Kerry Lee, who was beaten at odds of 1/20 in a three-runner two-mile novices’ chase at Ludlow in March, 2018.
He was giving 10lb to a rival he had 47lb in hand on going by official ratings, but put in a stinker having bled from the nose.
There were no such excuses for LOCKER ROOM TALK who failed to justify odds of 1/16 in a novices’ hurdle at Southwell in the June of 2019. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse was rated 132 having won a Kempton novice easily on his previous start but he was no match for Julia Brooke’s True Romance on his hurdling debut.
And then there was the Nicky Henderson-trained pair of ZAYNAR and FOLLOW THE BEAR.
Zaynar had won the Triumph Hurdle, Ascot Hurdle and Relkeel Hurdle on his three starts preceding the 2010 Morebattle at Kelso in the February of that year, where he was sent off 1/14, but he failed to beat Howard Johnson’s Quwetwo, a horse he was considered 35lb better than on official figures, with Henderson blaming the soft ground.
Just over seven years later another horse from Seven Barrows was beaten at odds of 1/14, with Follow The Bear turned over at that price in a Southwell novice hurdle where he was caught out by a drop in trip in a three-runner contest.
Most recently, last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up, KILCRUIT, was beaten on his hurdling debut for Willie Mullins at Cork at 1/14, the day after Constitution Hill had romped home at Sandown.
The Grade One shockers
While the bulk of those naughty shorties were letting the side down in conditions races or run of the mill novices, there have been some more high-profile upsets in recent years.
DOUVAN was sent off 2/9 when he was beaten in the 2017 Queen Mother Champion Chase, one of 14 horses that was beaten in a Grade One at odds of 2/5 or shorter this century.
He was one of eight Willie Mullins-trained horses turned over at the top level at those prices, the others including VAUTOUR, who was beaten at 1/4 in the Leopardstown novice chase at Christmas in 2014, and FAUGHEEN, who was twice beaten, at odds of 2/5 and 1/6, in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown.
Perhaps the mystique of a Champion Hurdler turning up for a Grade One Hurdle outside of Cheltenham is a factor here, as Henderson’s BUVEUR D’AIR was also twice beaten at prohibitive odds in the Christmas Hurdle (1/4) and Fighting Fifth (2/13) while stablemate EPATANTE was runner-up at 1/5 at Kempton the same year she was crowned the Champion Hurdle winner.
MASTER MINDED (2/5 in the Melling Chase) and MIN (2/7 in the Paddys Rewards Club Chase) were other supposed good things who couldn’t get the job done.
The ones that won
In the interests of balance there have been 14 occasions this century where horses sent off at 2/5 or shorter have won Grade One novice hurdles.
DUNGUIB, famously beaten at odds-on when having Irish Banker status in the 2010 Supreme Novices, had won two top-level novice hurdles that season at 30/100 before his Cheltenham defeat.
And ANNIE POWER (4/11), BRIAR HILL (1/4), VAUTOUR (1/3), DOUVAN (1/6), BELLSHILL (2/5), YORKHILL (30/100), LAURINA (2/11) and APPRECIATE IT (1/3) all won Grade One novice hurdles for the Mullins team at short prices.
Fate of the favourites in the Tolworth
As for the Tolworth specifically, there have been five odds-on favourites in the last 22 renewals, with two of those – L’AMI SERGE (trained by Henderson) and YORKHILL – winning, while Martin Pipe’s STORMEZ (10/11 when the race was run at Warwick) and PUNTAL (4/6 when the race was run at Wincanton) both lost.
The other one was Henderson’s HIDEBOUND in 1999, sent off 2/5 for the Tolworth after pummelling the Kennel Gate field at Ascot the previous month by 17 lengths. Beaten 16 lengths by Behrajan at Sandown, a nasal discharge was put forward as an excuse for the shock defeat.
A total of 10 favourites have won the Tolworth from the last 22 renewals, including the last two; FIDDLERONTHEROOF and METIER.
Which category will Constitution Hill fall into?
There’s no doubting there will be some long faces in the CONSTITUTION HILL camp if he gets beaten in Saturday’s Tolworth.
Opposition to him looks thin on the ground with Ryan Potter’s JETOILE the nearest horse to him on Timeform ratings and he’s considered 10lb shy of the Michael Buckley-owned horse. MIGHT I and Paul Nicholls’ MR GLASS are next best in on 145p.
Constitution Hill benefitted from a sound pace in his last Sandown victory – achieved on Good to Soft ground – so a more muddling gallop on conditions currently described as Soft (Heavy in places) will ask something new of him.
Considering his potential, though, he’s expected to overcome anything like that and, bar a bit of something impossible to predict, like nasal discharge, it’s hard to see him getting beat.
Just go easy on the stakes, perhaps, considering that long list of naughty shorties. After all, there will be a cracking veterans chase to get stuck into half an hour later, where there will likely be a plethora of lovely odds-against prices to pick from!