Cheltenham tips: Preview & best value bets for November Meeting on Friday November 15
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Thu November 14, 2024 · 6h ago
It's day one of the November Meeting on Friday and Matt Brocklebank has two recommended bets on the card.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet previews are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, featuring the Sky Bet Price Guarantees, before the full column is made available to all 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced over 113pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Friday November 15
1.5pts e.w. Whatsupwithyou in 1.10 Cheltenham at 11/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Tommie Beau in 2.55 Cheltenham at 7/1 (William Hill)
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Trust in Tommie to enjoy new challenge
Day one of the November Meeting and the spotlight belongs to Jonbon who is widely expected to put on a show in the Shloer Chase.
He bolted up in the Grade 2 contest 12 months ago and although his last season was not without the odd dramatic episode, Nicky Henderson’s horse ended it on the crest of a wave at Aintree and Sandown in the spring and now looks the one to beat in the two-mile chasing division full stop.
Sadly, the two principal betting races aren’t on ITV but I won’t let that put me off as without them there’s not a whole lot to write home about punting-wise in the four-runner Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices’ Chase, or the six-runner Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.
If there’s a turn-up in the latter race then it might be dealt by the Irish raider Rockstown Girl, who gets the mares’ allowance, is clearly fighting-fit after her Chepstow win, and could be at an advantage on ground she likes if able to lead from the off.
That’s far from a given, however, with Dan Skelton’s Valgrand highly likely to try and dictate the pace, something that served him so well here last month, and if they take each other on then it only increases the chances of the seemingly strong-staying Potters Charm getting a race run to suit. He could beat the lot of them in such a scenario but would surely prefer some genuine ease underfoot rather than the unavoidable recent irrigation.
It’s another no-bet race, in short, but I’m willing to have a dart at the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase, in which Conflated carries top weight of 12-0.
No horse has successfully carried more than 10-12 (Foxy Jacks last year) to victory in this race since it was switched to a handicap in 2015 and there are a few interesting rivals to Gordon Elliott’s horse, including a couple who are slightly out of the weights.
Mister Coffey has been called a few names but he’s down to his lowest mark for a couple of years and might just take to this sort of game, while Slipway effectively has to run off 140 here which looks plenty stiff enough, but he’s a strong stayer and he goes well fresh so it wouldn’t be a shock if Ben Pauling has him very close to peak fitness first time up.
The obvious value option is teak-tough campaigner TOMMIE BEAU whose 14 career wins have all come on left-handed tracks, most of which being slightly quirky courses likes Cartmel, Fakenham and Plumpton.
That leads me to hope he might really appreciate this new discipline at the first time of asking and he’s competing off a mark just 3lb higher than when successful in Cumbria towards the end of August, so isn't badly treated at all.
A strong stayer who is also clearly pretty nimble, having never fallen or unseated in his life, Tommie Beau has given connections some fantastic days over the years, winning the Durham National and Southern National just last season, and the prevailing ground here is in his favour too.
Nothing up with this one's chances
Bet of the day in my view is WHATSUPWITHYOU, who I’ll be backing each-way in the opening Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.
Fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 Martin Pipe, he was rated a peak 137 and is evidently still fairly well handicapped running off 126 following last month’s comeback run over a slightly shorter trip at Fontwell.
Just denied there by a race-fit rival after bundling the last flight, he looks to have got away with it being left on the same mark.
Good ground is absolutely fine and I’m encouraged by the return of cheekpieces which were left off for his first run of the season. Whatsupwithyou’s form in the sheepskin reads 42215224349122, and although that ninth came when well held behind the reopposing American Sniper in this same event when rated 7lb lower 12 months ago, he was squeezed for room at the last and the beaten distance ended up being quite exaggerated.
Subsequent evidence suggests he’s in a much better place now in terms of general wellbeing, and I love the booking of 10lb claimer Callum Pritchard, who is evidently on the crest of a wave having followed last weekend’s Badger Beer win on Al Dancer with a quite remarkable ride on Celebre d’Allen at Bangor on Wednesday.
The one to consider in the concluding Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle is Henry De Bromhead’s progressive five-year-old Chutzpal.
Admittedly, he came unstuck in his hat-trick bid when 9/4 for a novice event at Killarney last time out but don’t be fooled by that as the ground had become a fair bit worse than officially advertised (Timeform labelled it Soft) and he’d looked a much happier horse when winning in more summery conditions at Bellewstown and Wexford.
He looked miles ahead of his mark at Wexford and is a massive threat back in the handicap ranks off a BHA mark of just 119, but the opening 14/1 was snapped up pretty quickly and that price was heading towards single figures at the time of publication so the ship has sailed with that one.
Published at 1600 GMT on 14/11/24
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