Cheltenham tips: Preview and best value bets for Doncaster and Cheltenham on Friday October 25
By Matt Brocklebank
16:44 · THU October 24, 2024
Racing returns to Cheltenham on Friday and our man has a big-priced fancy on the card, plus one to consider in a handicap at Doncaster too.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 126.70pts in profit (273pts staked, ROI of 46.41%).
Value Bet tips: Friday October 25
1pt win Coastguard Station in 2.25 Cheltenham at 14/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win Apiarist in 2.43 Doncaster at 16/1 (General)
All aboard the Station!
Day one at Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting might not be especially packed with brilliant betting opportunities but the Squareintheair.com Handicap Chase is something to look forward to in that respect and there are a number of potential winners, the way I see it.
It’s hard to argue that Matata shouldn’t be favourite based on the pick of his novice form from last year and he’s often gone best fresh in the past which is a boost. The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard is in excellent form on the whole too, so a bold bid from the front does look pretty likely.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Matata does have one or two of his own ideas, though, and the thought of taking a skinny enough price about the headstrong six-year-old, with a couple of others in here expected to take him on the for the lead and possibly light his fires a little too early, does put me off him quite considerably.
Dancing On My Own - last year’s winner - is the real class act but he’s not being missed in the market either, with a couple towards the bottom of the weights appealing more at the odds.
Scarface, representing another trainer who’s hit the ground running this autumn in Joe Tizzard, has to be on the radar as he was on a steady upward curve all last term and looks very much like the type to progress again as he matures.
He didn’t seem to fully get home when third in the Silver Trophy here in April but, on reflection, I wonder if it was just a case of him wilting a bit at the end of his eighth start of the campaign.
There was talk of Scarface going three miles at one point last year so I’m not sure dropping back on relatively quick ground (watering to maintain ‘Good’) is necessarily going to play to his strengths.
Calico and last year’s runner-up Triple Trade can win at single figures without getting me in much of a stew, and the one who could be most over-priced here is COASTGUARD STATION.
I’d typically be looking to avoid hold-up horses over fences on Cheltenham’s Old Course, but as already touched on, they’re going to go really quickly from the outset in this and a fast-run race in the conditions should suit Henry Oliver’s horse.
He’s eligible for lesser races than this but connections are obviously happy to compete from a fraction (1lb) out of the handicap and I’d imagine his recent hurdles run was used as a bit of a sighter in order to try and land a nice early-season chasing pot before some of the others in this division have fully got themselves warmed up.
It didn’t quite happen for Coastguard Station when Oliver tried something similar last year but he ran a bit better than the finishing position suggests when seventh behind Triple Trade at the November Meeting, before going on to show improved form on better ground in the spring.
The comfortable victory over two miles at Uttoxeter at the end of June - his most recent run over fences – heavily hinted at even more to come and the runner-up that day, Fringill Dike, won by 27 lengths at Newton Abbot later in the summer.
The third home (Breizh River) went on to win a valuable race at Kelso and fourth Opening Bid won at Exeter recently too, so it’s worked out very well and Coastguard Station could be capable of defying what is effectively a 6lb higher mark this Friday.
Strictlyadancer should be there or thereabouts in the Glenfarclas Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase later on the card – a race he’s won in the past and ran well in again last season – while I’m looking forward to seeing Kingston James in the Alastair Down Press Room Novices’ Hurdle after his effortless Hexham success.
I was hoping that victory up north might have gone under the radar somewhat but he was proving popular in the betting on Thursday afternoon so can only be watched at 9/2 or thereabouts.
Apiarist to sting Donny rivals
Meanwhile at Doncaster, there’s a very short-priced favourite in the William Hill More Top Prices Handicap and, quite frankly, it’s hard to oppose progressive sprinter Altmore.
William Haggas’ horse cruised around at Pontefract last time, despite probably racing on the worst part of the track on the turn for home, and he could still have a stone in hand despite going up 11lb for that recent success.
Earlier on, the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap looks a lot more open and, after closely considering the 1lb well-in Sierra Blanca as he makes a quick return to action, I’m going to roll the dice with three-year-old APIARIST as I just don’t think he’s has the rub of the green at all in most of his five starts since being gelded.
Nevertheless, he’s continued to run extremely well in the face of some stiff tasks at Goodwood and York, which obviously means he’s not had much assistance from the assessor, but I’m convinced there’s a nice prize in him on soft ground this autumn.
Conditions were totally wrong at Ayr last month and the son of Night Of Thunder didn’t seem to be letting himself down properly that day, but trainer Kevin Ryan has given him a month off to freshen things up and this sort of test could prove ideal given his sole success to date came in a big sales race on soft ground at York 12 months ago.
With the likes of Grey Cuban (now rated 98), Nellie Leylax (101) and Mr Monaco (98) all beaten off that day, Apiarist really should be up to winning off marks in the mid-80s and his close third to Zain Blue two starts ago was a cracking effort as the winner appeared to land on a nice strip of ground towards the stands’ side rail.
Published at 1600 BST on 24/10/24
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