Storm Control in action during the Sky Bet Chase
Cheltenham Tips: Best value bets for November Meeting on Paddy Power Gold Cup day
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Sat November 12, 2022 · 2y ago
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes centre stage on Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has a couple of big-priced fancies for Cheltenham.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 12
1pt e.w. Storm Control in 2.20 Cheltenham at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Valentino in 2.55 Cheltenham at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Already advised:
Accurate jumping key in Paddy Power
Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase is going to be run at a breathless tempo and, as is custom for this superb race, there will be absolutely no hiding place in the jumping department.
For that reason alone, I’m going to take a strong stance against the likes of market leaders Ga Law and French Dynamite, while Paul Nicholls’ Il Ridito may well prove to be the best-handicapped of the lot in the fulness of time, but he’s only ever run in three handicaps and could still be short of experience when it comes to this sort of examination.
The Paddy Power is a rare test of a horse’s skillset too, the sharp Old Course clearly favouring those able to get into a good jumping rhythm towards the front of the pack, something we’ve seen a number of times with Cheltenham specialist Coole Cody, who won this from the front (made most) in 2020 and may well have followed up had he not checked out at the second-last 12 months ago.
The loveable Coole Cody has got to be on the shortlist again despite technically needing another career best to defy a mark of 151 at the age of 11 but, ultimately, one nipped ahead of him when it came to the staking plan.
Granted, Nassalam (20/1) has already been advised a couple of weeks ago but I’m keen to have some back-up following the declarations, especially as the ground is unseasonably dry, and top of the pile is Kerry Lee’s STORM CONTROL.
He’s got bags of big-race, big-field experience and really announced himself with back-to-back wins at Cheltenham - albeit over longer distances - two years ago.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride since then, without all that many highs in truth, and yet he won cosily at Newbury from a reduced mark in January, and really should have won the Sky Bet Chase 10 days later (running off 137), hitting the front three fences out and eventually running out of steam under an inexperienced rider.
Now rated 3lb lower than that excellent Doncaster effort and the same figure below his last success at this track, he’s actually the only one in this field to have won from a higher mark than their current rating so has got every right to be in the thick of the action providing the unexposed, sexier types find it all a bit hot to handle, as expected.
Storm Control – running for the same connections as 2019 winner Happy Diva - always improves the best part of a stone for his comeback run so I’ll toss the limp effort behind Midnight River at Stratford in terms of meaningful form, and I can see him popping away for fun in that second wave just behind the leaders, before staying on strongly up the hill. The trip may be shorter than absolutely ideal but he does travel strongly, and jump really neatly too, which will count for plenty.
He’s clearly got one or two quirks and can pull himself up once the chips are down, so a small each-way bet is the way to go.
Take Kimber to deliver on unexposed stayer
Horses winning Cheltenham handicaps from 8lb out of the weights can’t have happened too often over the years, though I’m reliably informed Martinstown won here in January 1981 despite being 24lb ‘wrong’ on account of the jockey putting up 23lb overweight, so it’s not all doom and gloom as VALENTINO bids to defy the odds in the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle.
This looks a good race for a bet too as I’m happy to take on Shearer off 8lb higher, as well as the quirky Annual Invictus, while Sidi Ismael may have been flattered by his Worcester win as Tom Scudamore was brilliant at seeking out the best ground on the wide outside all afternoon that day.
We’ve had some big-priced winners of this event in recent years – a couple at 20/1 and two more at 14s – and three of those four were running with very low weights, two of them under claiming riders.
Harry Kimber has sensibly been tasked with keeping the ride on Valentino and his 5lb claim is obviously a massive help when it comes to this horse running on such unfavourable terms.
That’s obviously the main reason he’s been priced up among the outsiders and I understand that to a point, although a look at his last three runs (all at Newton Abbot) shows we’re dealing with an in-form stayer with loads of potential further improvement.
After beating Skatman and the Macon Lugnatic back in May, he still held every chance when unseating rider at the second-last on his comeback in early-September, and he probably should have won last month, ultimately beaten a neck by Umbrigado after a mistake at the last.
"He is really suited to this test" | Shloer Chase & Greatwood Hurdle Preview
The Newton Abbot run-in is only about a dozen strides and Valentino was battling back after the error but the line came in time for the winner.
Jackie Du Plessis’ horse is effectively running off a 10lb higher mark for being beaten which is far from ideal, but I essentially believe he’s started off in the handicap sphere with a ridiculously low mark and could yet scale much higher as the season goes on.
He’s only ever run twice with cheekpieces so we’re seemingly just scratching the surface and the prevailing ground will definitely play to his strengths. Prices of 25/1 are too big to resist.
Published at 1500 GMT on 11/11/22