- Matt's Value Bet column, published on the eve of all major race televised meetings, was +39pts for the first two months of 2022
Value Bet Cheltenham tips: Wednesday March 16
1pt win Gaillard Du Mesnil in 2.10 Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Ashdale Bob in 2.50 Cheltenham at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Elixir De Nutz in 4.50 Cheltenham at 18/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Already advised
1pt win I Am Maximus in 1.30 Cheltenham at 25/1
Two of racing's biggest names take to the Cheltenham stage on Wednesday and there will be some hats in the air if Shishkin and Tiger Roll justify short-price favouritism in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase and Glenfarclas Chase respectively.
Facile Vega could make it one to forget for the layers in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the end of the day and all this is preceded by Sir Gerhard bidding to extend his unbeaten record over obstacles in the opening Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.
I certainly won’t be doubling down on antepost bet Funambule Sivola in the Queen Mother at 33s as he probably needed something to go wrong with one or two of the market leaders to hold a realistic chance of hitting the frame in the day two feature, though I remain cautiously optimistic regarding long-range fancy I Am Maximus in the Ballymore, especially with rain around.
He’s not got the form in the book yet – in fact the BHA assessor rating him a mere 134 meant he missed the cut for the handicaps – but he shaped with serious promise when second to big Albert Bartlett fancy Hillcrest here in January, only worn down by a much stronger stayer after the last flight (front two 11 lengths clear), and providing he's toughened up a bit for the experience I’m convinced he won’t be 17lb inferior to Sir Gerhard in real terms.
I'm content with the 25/1 position at this stage and can leave him alone unless he’s pushed back to a silly price which could easily lure me in again.
Be brave and take on market leader
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase favourite Bravemansgame has looked a monster again to this point but it’s worth noting since joining Paul Nicholls he’s only ever finished in front of two Irish-trained horses and they’re the little known Keskonrisk and Streets Of Doyen, the latter a 100/1 shot here.
I’m pretty keen to take the favourite on around Cheltenham’s undulations and although Ahoy Senor and L’Homme Presse look the obvious alternatives on British form this winter, I just wonder if the Irish will provide the real stumbling block for this horse again.
Fury Road has to be considered if it gets genuinely testing but Willie Mullins runs Capodanno and GAILLARD DU MESNIL and, at the prices, it’s the latter I prefer as he could just be sitting on a major PB now stepped up to three miles for the first time in his life.
He was on every shortlist going heading into last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle after winning the Grade One over two miles and six furlongs at the Dublin Racing Festival, and he duly ran a huge race, splitting Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame in second.
He proved that was no fluke with a subsequent Grade One win over the same intermediate trip at Punchestown last April and has consequently been kept to that sort of distance so far over fences.
He's not run badly at all in the very best company, finishing third to Capodanno, Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs back at the DRF last time, but could really blossom now given license to run over a proper staying trip.
He's expected to get it well being a son of Saint Des Saints (same sire as Djakadam, Protektorat, Lord Du Mesnil among others) and hailing from a stoutly-bred family on the dam’s side too, and I just can’t imagine we’ve seen anything like the very best of this horse as a chaser yet.
Cream could rise to the top
Wednesday also features one of the biggest betting races of the entire week in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle and very few can be ruled out with any sort of confidence.
Heaven Help Us led them a merry dance off a low rating when winning 12 months ago but she’s a bit of an anomaly in that regard and the likes of Whisper, William Henry, Supasundae and Medinas have all lumped big weights to victory in this race within the past decade.
It’s going to take a classy performance to get the better of unexposed market leaders Saint Felicien and Unexpected Party, with last year’s easy Festival Plate winner The Shunter another well found in the betting on his return to hurdling.
ASHDALE BOB, from the same yard as Supasundae, finished second to Gaillard Du Mesnil in the aforementioned Grade One at the Punchestown Festival last April, having won a Grade Two at Fairyhouse earlier that month, and while a chasing campaign has not gone to plan at all this winter, he’s evidently been rejuvenated back hurdling of late.
An eyecatching third behind Royal Kahala in the three-mile Galmoy Hurdle was followed by a career-best, head second to Thedevilscoachman over the Coral Cup trip in the Boyne Hurdle last time. He was conceding 2lb to the winner there and the pair of them came nine and a half lengths clear of Commander Of Fleet, Grand Roi and Ronald Pump who were rated 151, 147 and 156 respectively at the time.
That looks very respectable form (Ronald Pump ran well in defeat over the weekend to hammer home the point) and Ashdale Bob appeared a little unlucky to be nailed right on the line having led for the most part and done all the hard work only to just miss out in a tight finish.
It was also further evidence that Jessie Harrington’s jumpers look to be emerging from a bit of a quiet spell in time for the spring and this looks a cracking ride for apprentice Jack Foley.
Foley makes his Festival debut on Ashdale Bob and it’s clearly a big ask navigating a way to victory in a 26-runner Coral Cup around the Old Course at Cheltenham, but he’s got 45 winners on the board in Ireland already, including a couple for Willie Mullins earlier this month, so he should be really high on confidence and his 3lb claim could be excellent value in such a tightly-knit contest.
Each-way terms hard to resist
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase could stay at home again this year, with antepost recommendation ELIXIR DE NUTZ worth another bet to see off the dangerous Irish challenge given the extra place terms available post-declarations.
He’s not Colin Tizzard’s main hope on paper, with Brendan Powell sticking with the younger legs of Amarillo Sky, but Elixir De Nutz has an excellent stand-in in Jonjo O’Neill Jr, for whom a first Festival winner should be a formality before too long.
The horse lost his way after being forced to miss the 2019 Sky Bet Supreme but he was on a steep upward curve at the time, including two course wins earlier that season and a top-class triumph in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.
He’s looked back to his best with a couple of chase wins while wearing a tongue-tie since the turn of the year and he’s still on a good mark (144) on that old form despite a 9lb hike for winning easily at Kempton last time.
Tactically, this could admittedly be tricky as there are five or six others who like to get on with it in the line-up, but I suspect O’Neill will be happy to take a lead as Elixir De Nutz is a strong stayer at the trip and sitting just off a ferocious end-to-end gallop should suit him down to the ground, as will the forecast rain.
Published at 1700 GMT on 15/03/22
More from Sporting Life
- Cheltenham Festival 2022
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.