Cheltenham tips: Best value bets and preview for New Year's Day 2024
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Tue January 02, 2024 · 11M ago
Matt Brocklebank looks to kick off the New Year in the best possible fashion with a couple of big-priced recommendations for Cheltenham.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, from 3pm before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App at 4pm.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 118pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Monday, January 1
1pt win Al Dancer in 2.05 Cheltenham at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
1pt e.w. My Bobby Dazzler in 2.40 Cheltenham at 18/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Bob the one to beat in feature
With the ground already described as heavy and more (albeit relatively light) rain in the forecast for New Year’s Day, it’s all about stamina at Cheltenham where there are a couple of interesting bets on a pretty threadbare card numbers-wise.
The Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle has produced a few surprises over the years and you could almost throw Marie’s Rock into that category given her uneasiness in the market (went off 11/2) before coming home by six lengths from Dashel Drasher in the same race on soft 12 months ago.
She’s a much shorter price this time around and is at least race-fit after the Long Distance Hurdle comeback, but she was particularly disappointing that day and looks up against it despite getting the 7lb allowance from market rival Bob Olinger.
Henry De Bromhead’s horse made a successful start to his campaign in the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in November and while that form has on the face of it taken a couple of knocks subsequently, it was hard not to be impressed with the way he travelled and he was value for a touch more than the winning margin of a length having fiddled the final flight.
The distinct lack of pace in this (we’re going to be saying that a lot I’d have thought given the expected field-sizes over the next couple of months – Happy New Year!) is enough to put me off having a bet in the race, but I’d definitely be taking him in a match over Nicky Henderson’s mare and the Olly Murphy pair don’t look up to it, not least with Strong Leader – the only probable front-runner – having yet to prove himself on bad ground.
Dancer for money...
The Paddy Power Handicap Chase and the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase are typically the big NYD betting heats at Prestbury Park but have attracted just five and six runners respectively which is frankly alarming even allowing for the weather.
Inch House is dead progressive and isn’t really a horse I’d be keen to oppose in the former, but I’ll take on course regular Stage Star in the two and a half-miler given he’s yet to encounter heavy going and has gone up 11lb for his four-length win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
He was obviously good value for that margin having clobbered the last but, with Frero Banbou and Torn And Frayed out of the weights and Shakem Up’Arry still finishing weakly no matter the trip, the two who make some appeal against him are Richmond Lake and AL DANCER.
Richmond Lake followed up his comeback win over hurdles with a smooth-travelling success (also made a howler at the last, incidentally) in terrible conditions at Aintree, for which he’s gone up 8lb to a mark of 150.
It’s not inconceivable that he too develops into a Ryanair horse this season and he’s getting a stone from the antepost market leader for that Festival race so trainer Donald McCain will have a decent idea where he may or may not be heading after this.
The Aintree race might just have taken more out of him that first met the eye, though, so at the prices I’m backing Sam Thomas’s Al Dancer, who has 7lb claimer Dylan Jonhston to help take a bit of extra weight off his back which I like the look of.
The horse hasn't got many secrets but was third in the 2020 Paddy Power here for Nigel Twiston-Davies and claimed his first major triumph for his current yard when fending off Gesskille in last year’s Grand Sefton at Aintree.
That effort came off a mark of 144 and, having won well at Chepstow on his return to action this term, he’s now running off a career-high 154 which obviously looks stiff enough on the face of it, especially after managing only third in the Old Roan last time out, but I’ve not really trusted the form of that race as they missed so many fences and the well-held Datsalrightgino and Do Your Job have already come out to prove the point by winning nice prizes since.
Al Dancer comes here a fresh horse after 64 days away, the cheekpieces worn for the Grand Sefton win are back on for the first time this season and he’s just a very tough and likeable sort who goes on any ground. He should give the favourite something to think about in this scenario.
Dazzler to shine for Deutsch
There are some promising young horses in the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle including Springwell Bay, Butch and Ed Keeper but they’re all well found in the betting and I think the consistent MY BOBBY DAZZLER is a cracking each-way bet getting so much weight from the aforementioned trio.
Horses switching fences for hurdles can often be overlooked and I wonder if that’s the case here as he seemed to show a lot more promise when fourth over the bigger obstacles at Ludlow just under a month ago.
He'd won a novices’ handicap chase off a mark of 120 at Worcester in the summer but he’s perfectly happy on deeper ground too and can compete off 119 here which clearly isn’t beyond him. In fact, Mel Rowley’s charge hacked up by 21 lengths off 118 in a three-mile novices' handicap hurdle on soft at Aintree a couple of years ago, after which he was rated 132 so there’s no doubt he’s feasibly treated.
Charlie Deutsch is in to ride My Bobby Dazzler for the first time and he's got a 40% strike-rate (4-10) for the yard so I’m taking that as another positive.
Published at 1500 BST on 31/12/23
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