Our man Adam Houghton was at Dan Skelton's press day on Tuesday and reports back his key learnings.
Skelton upset by BHA handicapper remarks
The state of National Hunt racing in Britain, compared with the strength on the other side of the Irish Sea, has been a major talking point in recent years, perhaps never more so than after the 2021 Cheltenham Festival when the Irish raiders won 23 of the 28 races.
True, last year’s Festival was a bit kinder to the home team – the final standings in the Prestbury Cup stood at 18-10 in favour of Irish-trained runners – but there have still been more than a few whispers of discontent in the interim, whispers which quickly became a shout last week when it was revealed that only 31 of the 85 horses entered for the 2023 Randox Grand National are trained in Britain.
That led to some strong comments from BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood, the man whose job it is to frame the weights for the most valuable jumps race run anywhere in the world. In an interview with the Racing Post’s Andrew Dietz, Greenwood described the poor turnout from the home team as a “continuation of the demise of the British National Hunt scene”.
Strong words indeed, and they were met with an equally strong response from Dan Skelton, one of the foremost National Hunt trainers in Britain, when they were put to him during a press morning at his Warwickshire base on Tuesday.
Skelton said: “I find the handicapper’s comments offensive. He’s an official of British racing and he shouldn’t be making comments like that. I find it offensive. We don’t ask the referee as he comes off the pitch what they think, an official’s job is to officiate. I thought that was a rather unhelpful comment.
“I think that it was probably to be expected [the reduction in British-trained entries]. It costs £950 for the first entry, so you should only really be entering if you are going to get in the race and if it is appropriate for your horse. Then you have to take into consideration the amount of horses who are actually eligible for it in the UK. That is diminished – I wouldn't use the word 'demise', but I would say the numbers are down.
“We do definitely have a few less in the UK than perhaps we did and perhaps we will have in the future. The Irish have got a massive back catalogue of strong, stamina-laden, National Hunt breeding stock. The majority start in three-mile point-to-points at four and five. Not all those horses are destined to be four-mile chasers, of course not, but you are going to develop more of that sort of horse within that system.”
Judge Protektorat on his Haydock form
Skelton's Protektorat fared best of the British-trained runners when third in last year's Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, passing the post around 17 lengths behind A Plus Tard and looking unlucky not to finish closer still having made a mistake at the last.
That performance showed that Protektorat belongs at the very top level, a point he underlined and then some when making a successful reappearance this season in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (replay below). That was a career-best effort to land the spoils by 11 lengths, having the race in safe keeping from some way out, and on that showing he heads to Cheltenham this year with at least as good a chance as when running so well 12 months previously.
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For context, with a Timeform rating of 169, Protektorat is behind only Galopin des Champs (178p), A Plus Tard (177) and Bravemansgame (173) among the likely runners in National Hunt racing's blue riband, and it's the Haydock version of Protektorat that Skelton is expecting to see at the Festival rather than the one who finished a tame fourth on his latest appearance in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day.
Skelton said: “I just didn't have Protektorat as fit as I thought he was at Cheltenham. If we'd gone into that race with me saying this is a prep run, I think everybody would have said that was a lovely run, he obviously just blew up turning in and stayed on from the back of the last. But that wasn't the plan. I thought and hoped he'd win and then we would obviously come on to the Gold Cup. That's not how it's worked out and I've explained in full detail exactly why that run went like that.
“Based on last year, he was third in the Gold Cup and he's a bigger, stronger and better horse this year. I think you all saw at Haydock how good he can be when he's at his absolute best. We've just got to knuckle down – and we have knuckled down in the couple of weeks since the Cotswold Chase – and get him like he was at Haydock. If he goes into the Gold Cup like he was at Haydock, I think he's got a really good chance.
“He's a confirmed stayer, he stays the trip, and he can get round the track, he's had that experience. This is a championship race and Galopin des Champs is the correct favourite. He got the trip the last day, but there is a small question mark over the three miles and two furlongs at Cheltenham which Willie [Mullins, trainer] is convinced he will answer positively and I've certainly no reason to doubt the horse, the trainer or the jockey.
“But Galopin des Champs and his unbeaten profile aside, it's a very open Gold Cup. Everyone's had a bit of a go at each other and there's been different results along the line. On our best form, our Haydock form, we're right up there.”
Nube Negra not to be underestimated
Skelton is hoping for rain-softened ground to give Protektorat the best possible chance of going two places better than last year in the Gold Cup, though he also stated a preference that the heavens don't open until after Nube Negra has run around 48 hours earlier in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, a race he was forced to miss last year due to the deteriorating conditions.
The year before that Nube Negra was beaten just half a length by Put The Kettle On in the corresponding race, getting so close despite being forced to switch on the run-in, and he's shown that he retains plenty of ability in his two starts this season, making the most of a good opportunity in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham's November Meeting before filling the runner-up spot behind Editeur du Gite in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton the following month.
Nube Negra was arguably a bit underwhelming on the last occasion, ultimately being beaten 13 lengths having looked the most likely beneficiary when Edwardstone unseated his rider at the fifth, but Skelton is taking the positives out of that run ahead of his return to Cheltenham next month – weather permitting, of course – for what looks another wide-open edition of one of the championship races.
Skelton said: “Again, the Champion Chase looks a very open race. Everyone has beaten each other, everyone has got reasons for why they got beaten and everyone has reasons for why they'll improve. Nube Negra won the Shloer which he should have done at 1/10 and I actually think he ran really well at Kempton on pretty tacky ground.
“I'm not making an excuse on the ground. We got beaten by a horse who was clearly superior that day under those tactics and has gone on to frank the form significantly in the Clarence House. There is nothing about the run that disheartens me, especially given the aftermath and what's happened since, and this horse is very effective when he's fresh. He's effective at Cheltenham and the better the ground the better his chance.
“If the Champion Chase was next Wednesday with this forecast, he would have to be a shorter price than he would be on any other ground. All of the horses at this distance, in this race, they're all beating each other. It's a very unclear picture and we're very happy to have our hat in the ring and we think we can have him better than we did at Christmas.
“He's been second in it before and we'd love to try and go one better. We know it's not going to be easy, but who is outstanding in that category at this moment? It's a hard one to judge, but I think you could all see that, if it was a decent ground Champion Chase, he'd be right in the shake up.”
Best chance and a handicap pick
It will be four years in March since Skelton last saddled a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, a barren spell going back to 2019 when Roksana won the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle and Ch'tibello the County Hurdle to give the yard a double on the biggest stage in National Hunt racing.
As for this year's meeting, Skelton could saddle another interesting runner in the Mares' Hurdle in the shape of the progressive West Balboa, but instead it's a mare destined for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase who he identified as his best chance of a winner, namely Galia des Liteaux, who looked potentially smart when running away with the Grade Two Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick last time.
With her 7 lb sex allowance factored in, Galia des Liteaux is behind only Mighty Potter, Gaillard du Mesnil and Gerri Colombe on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Brown Advisory, so Skelton certainly has reason to be bullish when you consider that at least one of those ahead of her is likely to run elsewhere at the meeting.
Skelton said: “Galia des Liteaux put the record straight at Warwick [after her below-par run in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton]. If you got a soft-ground Brown Advisory, I think getting 7 lb she would be a certain player. I have entered her for the Mares' Chase this morning, but that's two and a half miles. Three miles on soft ground would be very much her cup of tea.
“I think she's the leading British-trained three-mile novice chaser on ratings – that's the theory and we'll see how the reality works out! If it didn't rain enough we'd have to miss it, it's imperative that she has slow ground. She's a big, strong mare and she doesn't look like a mare when you stand her up there. Everything is big about her, she's got big feet and big limbs – she's just a real tank of a mare. If it rains, I think she has a massive chance.”
As for the handicaps, Skelton paraded a couple of possible contenders for the Grand Annual in the shape of Third Time Lucki and Unexpected Party, but it's a horse being targeted at the County Hurdle who is perhaps the one for the notebook, particularly given how well the trainer has done in the race with three wins from the last seven renewals.
The horse in question is Pembroke, about whom Skelton was keeping uncharacteristically tight-lipped having seen him fill the runner-up spot on his most recent start in the Grade Two Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day.
Skelton said: “Pembroke was a non-stayer at Cheltenham. I thought he'd stay, there's no point me pretending he went in there with a massive question mark. It was a very small question mark, I thought it was relevant but only a little bit. I thought he'd stay, he didn't. We'll have to drop back in trip and he will be in the County Hurdle...that's all I have to say!”
It was the pause after the words County Hurdle had been uttered that was arguably most telling, but Skelton did eventually consent to elaborate despite seemingly wanting to do otherwise.
He added: “I think had he stayed, it would have been different – not exactly a different result, but a different thought pattern. He definitely doesn't stay, he has to come back in trip and the New Course definitely suits him better than the Old Course, so we'll go down that route.”
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