Cheltenham Festival update: Spotlight on the JCB Triumph Hurdle

What’s the latest development?

Sir Gino is the new ante-post favourite for the JCB Triumph Hurdle having readily accounted for the previous jolly, Burdett Road, in the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Burdett Road, a Royal Ascot winner, had looked very good in winning his first two starts over hurdles, displaying a smart change of gear in the closing stages. His tendency to overrace had been evident though and it was again on Saturday with Harry Cobden having to keep a really tight hold of his reins as they came down the hill and it's just possible that wasted energy detracted from his finishing kick.

Trainer James Owen referenced that - and the possibility of a stronger pace in March - in the post-race debrief without offering any excuses, saying: "He just got a bit keen as there was no pace from halfway, but I’m not making any excuses. I was quite pleased with how my horse settled today, and he jumped a lot better.

"He will need to improve a lot to beat Sir Gino, but I’m happy enough we still have got a good horse. It will be different conditions and there will be more runners and there will be a lot more pace on so we will give it another go at him.”

James Bowen also felt Sir Gino was 'lit up' coming down the hill but added that his mount was 'always controllable'. This was a far more professional performance from Sir Gino than he produced at Kempton with trainer Nicky Henderson revealing that they had done a lot of work on his jumping in the interim.

The winner certainly looked the part and Henderson was in confident mood afterwards, saying 'we have been quite bullish, but reluctant to show too much in case we finish up with egg on our face'.

What do the markets say?

Burdett Road started the day as the 3/1 favourite and ended it at a best of 12/1.

Sir Gino was available at 6/1 but as off-time neared he was sharing favouritism with at least one firm at 4/1. The post-race action was swift and predictable with Sir Gino now a general 6/4 shot or a best of 11/8 (Paddy Power) with those firms offering NRNB.

Third home Milan Tino was introduced into the betting for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter) by some firms and trimmed by those that already quoted the French-based gelding. Milan Tino was a best of 20/1 going into the race and is now chalked up at 14s and 16s.

Excelero had chased home Salver - a general 14/1, best of 16s for the Grade 1 - on his hurdling debut and improved on that to finish fourth, just half a length behind Milan Tino. He will need to run again in order to qualify for the handicap but he was introduced into the betting at 16/1 and 14/1.

What’s the current conclusion?

No thank you!

Nicky Henderson has won more Triumph Hurdles than any other trainer, collecting the juvenile crown on seven occasions so it pays to listen when he says that the Seven Barrows team have been 'bullish' about the prospects of Sir Gino but I struggle to believe he will be any shorter on the day.

Burdett Road set the standard going into Saturday and was brushed aside but there have to be doubts as to whether he ran to form. The timefigure analysis should reveal more but visually his finishing effort was tame in comparison to his course victory in November while Milan Tino had finished seven lengths adrift in the autumn but was just a length behind on this occasion.

The biggest threat, predictably, will almost certainly come from Ireland and a bigger challenger will surely emerge from the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend.

Henderson may have won seven Triumphs but Willie Mullins has landed three of the last four and four in all. Henry de Bromhead took the renewal he didn't and Gordon Elliott struck in 2018 with Farclas. Ireland have dominated recent runnings to an extraordinary extent.

The shortest British trained runner last year was sent off at 50/1 and finished 11th of 13 finishers. That isn't representative but in 2022 Porticello (8/1) fared best of the home team in sixth behind the classy Vauban. Again Henderson wasn't represented and, indeed, he hasn't had a runner in the race since Pentland Hills ran out a surprise 20/1 winner in 2019.

The last three Triumph Hurdle winners all contested the McCann FitzGerald Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing first, second, and first, which is run at Leopardstown on Saturday as part of the Dublin Racing Festival.

At the time of writing there are 22 entries, 11 of whom are trained by Mullins, including Salvator Mundi, a general 12/1 - and best of 14s - shot for the Triumph. He has yet to run for the yard but did have a run in France, finishing second to a certain Sir Gino with whom he now shares an owner.

Mullins is excited by his new recruit, describing him as 'really smart' in the pre-season stable tours and it has been a habit of his in recent years to run some of his better novices in Grade 1s rather than risk losing their novice status in run of the mill contests. Salvator Mundi was just under two lengths adrift of Sir Gino at Auteuil but the winner may have been advantaged by racing on the front end.

Sir Gino has obviously improved but there's no reason that Salvator Mundi can't do likewise. You may not want to take a 14/1 punt on that but do you want to take 6/4 about Sir Gino when there was relatively little to choose between them in France?

Salvator Mundi may have a big reputation but Saturday's ante-post favourite is stablemate Storm Heart (7s for the Triumph) who fairly dotted up at Punchestown on New Year's Eve, surprising his trainer who noted 'what they do on the track is more important than what they do at home'. Mullins thought his other juvenile runners over the festive period were arguably more talented and certainly fitter so it's reasonable to expect a good heap of improvement from Storm Heart whose willing attitude will stand him in good stead.

We won't see Mighty Bandit (25/1) run with the Caldwell Construction team heading to the sales which is a shame as he wasn't himself in the Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle on St Stephen's Day but had impressed on debut and was as short as 13/2 prior to a defeat that is easily excused (post-race nasal discharge).

In all likelihood, the powerhouse Irish stables will still have a card or two up their sleeves to play; whether they can trump Sir Gino remains to be seen but it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to envisage a serious challenger emerging and shaking up the market.

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