The top racing analyst is back and with the first horse to add to your ante-post Cheltenham portfolio.
Racing betting tips: Chetenham Festival ante-post
1pt win Capodanno in National Hunt Chase at 12/1 (General)
Blue Lord, Concertista, En Beton, Ferny Hollow, Galopin Des Champs, Haut En Couleurs, Jungle Boogie and Stattler have all impressed over fences this winter and the octet, who are unbeaten in eleven starts between them, form an enviable team of novice chasers for Willie Mullins.
All eight look set to play leading roles in their various assignments at the Festival in March and, while trying to second guess Ireland’s champion trainer in terms of their likely targets a couple of months in advance is an impossible task, I am keeping my fingers crossed another of the yard’s unbeaten youngsters, namely CAPODANNO, will be targeted at the National Hunt Chase.
Mullins has won the Grade 2 prize on a couple of occasions with Back In Focus (2013) and Rathvinden (2018) and this ex-French gelding, who was rated 147 over hurdles, looks set to reach a much loftier figure over fences. Runner-up on his only outing over the smaller obstacles for Daniela Mele in November 2019, the Manduro gelding was acquired for €185,000 a couple of weeks later by J.P.McManus.
In customary Mullins fashion, he was given plenty of time to acclimatise and settle in at Closutton before continuing his hurdling career last winter. Despite winning over two miles at Clonmel, the chestnut took his form to another level when stepped up an extra eight furlongs winning a competitive twenty five runner handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last spring by a dozen lengths. Appreciating the drying conditions, Jody McGarvey’s mount made a mockery of a mark of 132 looking a fast improving horse in the process.
Sent chasing in the middle of last month, the same rider did the steering at Naas in a two miles three beginners chase. The market suggested Capodanno was the stable’s second string with dual Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Gaillard Du Mesnil being sent off 4/11 favourite. The formbook tells us that the J.P.McManus owned gelding recorded a length and a quarter victory but that doesn’t tell half the tale. Fifteen runners set off but only two thirds of the field completed with a couple of casualties at the penultimate fence before Indiana Jones crashed out at the last when still very much in contention. Capodanno jumped well, with the exception of the second last, when he appeared to have spoilt his chance but rallied gamely to lead close home.
His high profile stable companion finished third. Considering the trip is the bare minimum for him, it was an encouraging start to his new vocation. He jumps well, has a high cruising speed and stays well – three ingredients which will stand him in good stead for the three miles six event in March.
It isn’t guaranteed he will be aimed at the National Hunt Chase, but it appears a far more likely destination than the other options. The gelded son of Manduro has still to convince he possesses the speed to win the Turner Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles, even on the New course at Cheltenham, and is J.P.McManus going to be keen to take on another of his stablemates Galopin Des Champs in the Festival Novices’ Chase over three miles? Me neither.
Many will point to the fact another Closutton inmate, Stattler, is at the summit of the ante-post market for the NH Chase, but the Stowaway gelding didn’t look slow when quickening up smartly between the final two fences on his first run over fences at Fairyhouse over two miles five last month. Fourth in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last term, he already looks faster over fences than he ever did over hurdles.
Patrick Mullins was even talking about the Turner Novices’ Chase shortly after that initial victory likening the seven year old to Black Hercules, who successfully dropped back in distance to win the two and a half miles novice in 2016.
The National Hunt Chase has also been kind to McManus with Front Line (1995), Rith Dubh (2002), Butler’s Cabin (2007), Cause of Causes (2015) and Minella Rocco (2016) all scoring in his green and gold silks. While the Grade 3 Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown (16th January) is an option, although he could cross swords with the top class Bob Olinger, a more likely target en route to the Festival is the Grade 3 novice over three miles at Naas (30th January) – Mullins won the race in 2019 and 2020 with Ballyward and Carefully Selected respectively and that pair went on to line up in the National Hunt Chase later that season.
In terms of jockey, Patrick Mullins rode Capodanno once over hurdles and was on board both of his father’s winners of the race formerly known as the ‘four miler.’ Otherwise, Derek O’Connor has a strong association with J.P.McManus and is also seeking his third win in the race.
As far as the opposition is concerned, Run Wild Fred and Vanillier finished second and third respectively in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but were put firmly in their place by Fury Road being beaten eight and eighteen lengths. The pair are rated in the 150s over fences and therefore warrant plenty of respect – Gordon Elliott has won the National Hunt Chase four times in the last eleven years, while Gavin Cromwell’s grey won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival by eleven lengths and has stamina in abundance. However, they both had their limitations exposed over the yuletide period and certainly aren’t invincible.
Another of Capodanno’s stablemates, En Breton, threw his hat into the ring with a commanding 21 lengths win on his first venture over fences at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. Owned by Cheveley Park Stud, the eight year old made all the running and never looked like relinquishing the advantage as his rivals fell by the wayside. While it was an impressive performance and his jumping was accurate, the form looks suspect with a couple of market rivals failing to fire and the runner-up Everglow has wind issues. Given his age, the fact the ex-French gelding has only raced half a dozen times makes him a risky betting proposition, too.
Ahoy Senor couldn’t match Bravemansgame for speed or class in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The former English pointer will be a different proposition on a more galloping track though and, despite that reversal on Boxing Day, I suspect he is more likely to have another crack at Paul Nicholls’ charge in the Festival Novice Chase than step up to three and three quarters of a mile here.
Talking of the champion trainer, there must be every chance Threeunderthrufive will be Team Ditcheat’s representative in an event which has yet to feature on his illustrious CV. A well beaten sixth in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in March, the Shantou gelding has won three of his four starts over fences and is officially rated 151.
The seven year old has gained easy wins at Exeter, Cheltenham and Doncaster, including in Grade 2 company on Town Moor. Those victories have been achieved in field sizes of 4,5 and 3 and one can’t help thinking he has been expertly placed by Nicholls. The Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot (19th February) will offer further evidence as to his credentials, but more is required if he is to trouble the raiders from across the water. Alternatively, the Max McNeill owned gelding could contest the Festival Chase the following afternoon in March, but it will be a surprise if he gets dual Grade 1 winning stable companion Bravemansgame off the bridle, let alone Galopin Des Champs.
Finally, given his strength in depth in this department, what price Willie Mullins wins all four novice chases at this year’s Cheltenham Festival?
- Preview posted 1115 GMT on 04/01/2021
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