The Brown Advisory Novices' Chase comes under the spotlight in our man's latest antepost look at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Ballygriffincottage in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 16/1 (Coral, Unibet, Ladbrokes, bet365)
There might not be a huge amount of strength in depth when it comes to the British novice chasers this year but Sporting Life Arkle favourite Jonbon obviously looks the real deal, while the likes of Thyme Hill and The Real Whacker have thrown their hats into the Festival ring with wins at Kempton and Cheltenham in recent weeks.
Despite not being able to muster a single runner for the Turners, it’s worth recalling home-trained horses did win the Arkle and the Brown Advisory at last year’s meeting and, providing the aces remain intact between now and the middle of March, I’m not convinced it should be all doom and gloom this time around either.
The Brown Advisory occasionally becomes slightly more winnable than it might have been because in recent years Willie Mullins seems to have had his arm twisted (by son Patrick, no doubt) into running one of his best stayers as a National Hunt Chase banker – presumed to be Gaillard Du Mesnil this term – and as a result Mullins has ‘only’ won the three-miler twice over the past dozen years.
Three of the last four winners have been trained in the UK and, assuming there’s still plenty of rain around which is hardly asking for much in the present day (just look at the Wednesday last year), BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE is capable of keeping the prize away from Ireland.
He was the pick of the British horses when a staying-on fourth in the Albert Bartlett at the 2022 Festival, he was always destined to make a better chaser (bred for the job) and I could hardly have been more impressed by him on chasing debut over the extended two miles, five furlongs at Haydock in November.
Granted, it was a three-runner race and he was getting 8lb from runner-up Beauport, but Ballygriffincottage looked an absolute natural, despite the inadequate test of stamina, putting himself right when in close to a couple but meeting almost every fence on a great stride and attacking them with a rarely-seen relish.
He sauntered clear up the straight and was eased down in the end so it would be unwise to read too much into the fact The Real Whacker beat the same rival (Beauport) by almost twice the distance at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
Dan Skelton opted against going straight up to Grade 1 level at Kempton over Christmas, even though the ground ultimately came his way on the day, and it’ll be the Grade 2 Hampton at local track Warwick next weekend instead.
This horse is going to love a return to three miles and I can see his Cheltenham price shortening quite significantly if he’s able to repeat anything like the round of jumping from Haydock (replay below).
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He’s already a shade shorter (14/1 versus 16/1) for the National Hunt Chase than the Brown Advisory and there will inevitably be a decision to be made should all go well next time, but I'd worry he lacks a bit of experience to be taking on Gaillard Du Mesnil over three and three-quarter miles, and the ultra-ambitious Skeltons are always dead keen to be seen in the biggest races where possible.
Ballygriffincottage looks one of their hottest prospects for the future and, still under the radar to some degree, he looks one to get on side for the Grade 1 at 16/1 before underlining his credentials next weekend.
Published at 1700 GMT on 07/01/23
Antepost Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Stattler in Cheltenham Gold Cup at 14/1 (General)
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