2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Mighty Potter in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 14/1 (General)
The official entries for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle aren’t made until next Tuesday but the race has obviously come alive over the past few weeks and it really could be one of the clashes of the Festival if all the current market principals line up.
However, that’s precisely why this is a great time for a bet as, while they’ll no doubt be engaged when the race closes, it’s surely not so much a case of 'if' Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo all turn up on March 15, but more a matter of 'how many' of them will run in the Ballymore instead.
The final pieces of the jigsaw probably won’t slot into place until the Dublin Racing Festival in a couple of weeks' time but if, like me, you rate two of the ‘big four’ just as likely to run in an alternative race come Cheltenham, then you’re getting a hearty slice of value about everything else in the Supreme betting as it stands.
Should Nicky Henderson, and whoever else is involved in the decision making at Seven Barrows, persuade Michael Buckley (will he take that much persuading?) to run 5/2 favourite Constitution Hill in the Ballymore, then needless to say this market is going to look a whole lot different, while what about Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo for the all-conquering Willie Mullins?
Mullins is the daddy when it comes to remaining largely non-committal over big-race targets especially for his novices, but he was thinking along the lines of Sir Gerhard being his Ballymore ace at the beginning of the season and, in light of Sunday, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if that’s the way it remains, despite the Cheveley Park horse being 5/4 favourite for the two-mile Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown next month.
Dysart Dynamo has come in from left-field, relatively speaking, though he did win a couple of bumpers last term including one over the extended two miles and two furlongs at Clonmel.
Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard would obviously be major players in either event at Cheltenham, but are they really going to turn up in the same one?
The former’s Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle win at Punchestown at the weekend screamed Sky Bet Supreme to me, given he was keen to post and so exuberant from the front throughout the race itself, and when it comes to the top of the market I’d be more inclined to side with him (4/1) than his stablemate (7/1), or either of the Henderson pair for that matter, at current odds.
On top of all of this conjecture, I’ve liked MIGHTY POTTER as a Cheltenham Festival project since his wide-margin maiden win (shade flattered given the fall of The Greek two out) at Down Royal at the end of October, and nothing he’s done since has left me regretting I ever signed up to the fan club.
Granted, it could be argued he initially didn’t quite come up to standard when only third to Mullins-trained mare Statuaire in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse, but watch the race in full for yourself and you’ll do well to conclude he’s not at least the equal of the two horses who finished in front of him.
Too keen for his own good early on in a stop-start sort of race tactically, Mighty Potter still had just one rival behind him two flights from the finish but made rapid headway having had to be switched towards the inside after the last hurdle. From that point Statuaire and My Mate Mozzie closed the gap on him, leaving Bryan Cooper with no real shot, but the eventual third stayed on well to be beaten a length and a quarter without his rider being overly hard on him.
He's since proved himself a top prospect by beating stablemate Three Stripe Life in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas (see below), the past two winners of that race – namely Appreciate It and Abacadabras – having gone on to be first and second in the Supreme respectively.
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It’s a well-trodden path Mighty Potter is taking – all the while gaining valuable inexperience in competitive Grade Ones - and although Constitution Hill and Jonbon have clocked some impressive times and undeniably looked the business in doing so against lesser opposition, recent history really ought to have taught us not to get too carried away with the home side until they’ve met the Irish.
Sir Gerhard is favourite for the Ballymore at the time of writing and it’ll be fascinating to see how he and Mighty Potter emerge from the Dublin Racing Festival, but the Elliott horse could be a creditable second and still do his Supreme credentials no harm in the process.
Should he go and beat wide-margin maiden hurdle winner Sir Gerhard (and My Mate Mozzie - more on him below) over the minimum trip on the first Sunday in February, the current 14/1 will obviously look incredibly good business.
Who else should be on the radar?
Interestingly, most of the British novice form is already in the book and despite the Betfair Hurdle generally throwing up at least one viable contender in recent years, that doesn’t look like being the case this season.
Dan Skelton's Elle Est Belle, third in the Champion Bumper last season, is a horse to monitor closely as I'm convinced she's ahead of her mark (133) but she'll have the mares' novices' hurdle as a realistic option too so maybe Broomfield Burg (40/1) is the one who could enter the frame at a big price currently.
However, given he’s back in handicap company from a mark of just 134, having been beaten at Cheltenham off 130 in December prior to his taking Kempton win, he’s still got a fair way to go yet and the County Hurdle could remain his most likely target even in victory at Newbury.
Gavin Cromwell’s aforementioned My Mate Mozzie is the other big Irish hope. He’s a really quick horse for a three-mile, bad-ground, point-to-point winner and he had Mighty Potter just behind when second (5/4 favourite) in that tight finish to the Royal Bond.
Mark Walsh was adamant he’d be better on a right-handed track when winning on him at Navan earlier in November, and he did definitely seem to be adjusting that way then, though in fairness to the horse it was less pronounced at Fairyhouse last time.
That could be a slight issue for him come Cheltenham - as well as at Leopardstown next month should be run there first - but I’m more inclined to oppose him on account of the free-going Dysart Dynamo, who could arguably force My Mate Mozzie (has made all/most in his hurdle races to date) into going a step quicker than he should be.
With a bit of luck the pair of them will both run and take each other on around the Old Course, leaving the race open late in the day for a stronger stayer at the trip such as selection Mighty Potter, whose half-brother French Dynamite gets two and a half miles well.
Published at 1300 GMT on 19/01/22
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