Cheltenham Festival tips and analysis including which race should Sir Gerhard run in?

Does the Betfair Exchange market/Oddschecker grid tell us all we need to know regarding Sir Gerhard?

Ben Linfoot: Well, at the time of writing he’s available for small money at 7/1 on the Exchange and he’s a best of 4s with the fixed-odds bookmakers for the Sky Bet Supreme.

He’s shorter for the Ballymore with both, so yes, I would be guided by market forces here.

Right at the start of the season Willie Mullins said in his stable tour on these pages ‘you’d imagine he’s more a Ballymore horse’ and though he has been campaigned over two miles so far, he just shapes like a horse that will improve over further.

His jumping became a focal point after his impressive Leopardstown win last time (replay below), suggesting connections might want him to have a little more time at his hurdles. Throw in the fact Mullins has several other Supreme options, including the awesome Dysart Dynamo, and that the Ballymore looks the weaker of the two races, and you have a potent mix.

I think he’ll run in the Ballymore, and I think he’ll probably win it.

Matt Brocklebank: I can understand why punters might be put off by a drift on the exchange but history tells us Willie Mullins and the Closutton team make these calls extremely close to the Festival, so if there’s enough to go on I wouldn’t let the betting solely dictate your thoughts.

There are obvious reasons why they might look to move Sir Gerhard up in trip at Cheltenham, namely the sticky hurdling early on at Leopardstown and the fact the Ballymore looks there for the taking in terms of strength of overall form (Sir Gerhard would have a significant class edge).

However, if you’ve read the Mullins column on these pages over the past couple of seasons then you’ll know how much stock he places on his horses’ pedigrees, and he does keep referring to Sir Gerhard’s sire Jeremy as a strong influence on speed.

So, despite the chatter elsewhere, I still think we’re a little bit in no man’s land in terms of this horse’s target. However, I don’t believe there’s anything wrong with his jumping at all, having shown a great technique first time out, and at the DRF he just looked to be distracted and not quite on it.

That won’t be the case at Cheltenham, whichever race he goes for, and I’d be leaning towards the Sky Bet Supreme if pushed.

How about the rest of the Mullins-trained novice hurdlers, led by Dysart Dynamo?

MB: As touched upon above, Mullins looks at pedigrees extremely closely and, being by Westerner and closely related to middle-distance/staying horses, there’s no denying Dysart Dynamo should handle the Ballymore trip perfectly well if asked.

That’s where I’d be looking to run him as I feel Mullins may need to play his ace (Sir Gerhard) if he’s going to get off to a flyer against Constitution Hill and Jonbon in the Sky Bet Supreme.

Dysart Dynamo was ridiculously keen when winning the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer from the front but they’ll have been working on honing that enthusiasm since then and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s the one nudged up in trip, along with the Donnellys’ State Man, as I could see Kilcruit and the Munir/Souede-owned Tramore maiden winner El Fabiolo (a late NR in the G1 at the DRF) joining the Supreme party on day one.

BL: Dysart Dynamo could also move up in trip for the Ballymore, but I’d say he looks more likely to stay at two miles in the Sky Bet Supreme.

He would be treading a familiar path worn by previous Moscow Flyer winners from the same yard, like Douvan, Vautour and Min, and pace looks a key weapon of his at this stage in his career. I’m not sure Mullins wants to try and channel that over further just yet.

There are others, too, like Kilcruit, who has been a bit of a slow-burner over hurdles but he’s getting to grips with the game now. And who knows what El Fabiolo is? He’s running out of time to qualify for a handicap, so perhaps he’ll rock up in the Supreme as well.

Galopin Des Champs is proving easy to back for the Turners - where would you run him?

BL: You sense with Galopin Des Champs it will be a late decision.

I wonder how much politics is going on with the hints that the intermediate trip will be ideal for him? Is Mullins just making Henry de Bromhead think twice regarding Bob Olinger’s Cheltenham target?

He’s so talented he could probably win either and if we do get a GDC v Bob O smash-up in the Turners I’d be siding with the Mullins horse. I’d run him in the Turners and I hope he runs in the Turners, but when it comes to it if it’s a choice of taking on Bob Olinger or Bravemansgame I think Mullins might plump for the latter.

MB: Wherever he goes he should be given a cracking race providing the likes of Bravemansgame, Bob Olinger and L’Homme Presse all make it to the big dance.

Mullins obviously has a brilliant hand when it comes to the novices chasers and it’ll be fascinating to see where they all slot in but with Capodanno, Gaillard Du Mesnil and Jungle Boogie looking ideal for the three-mile Brown Advisory, I’d have no qualms over running Galopin Des Champs against Bob Olinger, who is expected to line up in the Turners over two miles four furlongs.

I actually think L’Homme Presse might be his biggest threat if going for the shorter race.

Did Royal Kahala punch her Stayers' Hurdle ticket by winning the Galmoy Hurdle?

MB: If the ground is soft in March I’d definitely be looking at running her in the Mares’ Hurdle.

Granted, she put up a brave performance over three miles at Gowran but I can’t imagine that was anything like Klassical Dream’s best form and I wouldn’t be getting too carried away after beating Home By The Lee less then two lengths, in receipt of 4lb.

On traditional spring ground I’d imagine connections might be tempted to stick at three miles but if it’s too quick she won’t run at all I wouldn’t have thought.

BL: Yes, I would agree, she needs rain if she’s to run at Cheltenham at all.

Peter Fahey is on record saying she wouldn’t run on good ground at the Festival which tells you it’s not all about now for the seven-year-old mare. She could jump a fence next season.

I don’t think there’s any doubt she stays – and while Klassical Dream failed to fire in the Galmoy it was a well-run race and Royal Kahala finished well to seal the deal.

However, I’m not sure Fahey would want to give her a tough race in a soft-ground Stayers’ Hurdle over three miles against the geldings, even though it will be tempting given the openness of the division. If it is wet and she does run, I think it’ll be in the Mares’.

Sporting John now has a BHA hurdles mark of 156 - does that entitle him to a shot at the Stayers'?

BL: Now this is a real dilemma for Philip Hobbs and JP McManus.

Qualified for the Pertemps on the back of winning in serene style at Warwick, he now has the option to go for the Final over three miles off a handicap mark of 156. That’s tough – no horse has ever won the race off a rating higher than 152 – and the way he won at Warwick suggested to me he at least deserves the chance to go for the Grade One.

Both the Pertemps and the Stayers’ are on the same day on the New Course, so there’s no decision to be made there, and I’d go for the big one.

He’s looked much improved over hurdles this term, he hurdles very nicely, and the only blot on his copybook was a defeat at Cheltenham in December when Hobbs probably brought him back too quickly. He’ll be fresh at the Festival – and I think he’d be a huge player in the Stayers’.

Obviously, on that logic, if he turned up in the Pertemps I’d say he’d be quite capable of defying a mark of 156, as well. McManus also has Champ for the Stayers', but I don't think he'd split them up purely on the basis that he already has a strong contender for the race.

MB: Part of this decision may hinge on how many horses JP McManus has got qualified for the Pertemps Final, but I’d be aiming Sporting John at the Grade One.

He’s not alone being Grade One novice chase winner who lost his form, has been rejuvenated back hurdling and suddenly looks a huge player in this division.

I’d have had one or two concerns about his suitability for Cheltenham prior to his easy win there earlier in the season, when also showing he could act on good ground, so there’s loads to like and the double-figure prices for the Stayers’ look quite appealing.

Would the novice route be the right path now for impressive Leopardstown winner Party Central?

MB: I’m not convinced by this at all and when the handicap entries come through I’d expect to see Party Central in the County Hurdle, the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe as well.

The way she sauntered through the race over the extended two miles at Leopardstown suggests she’ll be fine sticking to the County trip and surely they won’t be able to resist running in that if given a BHA mark in the low-140s.

BL: She was backed for the Sunday opener at the DRF like defeat was out of the question and Davy Russell sat motionless on her while others toiled. Clearly, a mark of 121 was way off.

She could go for the Dawn Run now, but a revised Irish mark of 135 would likely give her a low-140s rating in England and she’d be dangerous off that whichever handicap Gordon Elliott plumped for.

With stamina in her pedigree, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her line up for the Coral Cup.

Would you be stumping up the cash to supplement Eldorado Allen for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup?

BL: Let’s say I chopped it right off with a Festival multi this year, had millions in the bank and bought the cream of the crop from the Irish point-to-point fields.

In a few years’ time he’s taken the racing world by storm and has the pace for the Ryanair and the guts for a Gold Cup. Where do I go? I go Gold Cup, of course I do.

Back in the real world I wouldn’t be supplementing Eldorado Allen for the longer race.

Yes, he’s unexposed over three miles and has stamina in his pedigree. But with Clan Des Obeaux disappointing that Betfair Denman Chase form is dubious and 3m2f and a bit around Cheltenham against seasoned stayers is a completely different kettle of fish.

Take Allaho out of the Ryanair and it’s not much of a race. Eldorado Allen could be the best of the rest and maybe even win it if the favourite has an off day.

MB: Personally, no. But it’s getting towards the end of the month and my pockets currently consist of a pack of Polos, some fluff and a scrap of paper containing scribbled dimensions of a futon.

I’d imagine Terry Warner’s pockets look a little healthier in terms of the supplementary fees, but hand on heart I’d be doing everything I could to ensure this horse turns up for the Bowl at Aintree in the best possible condition, and if that means skipping Cheltenham altogether then so be it.

Ryanair Chase or Gold Cup for Gordon Elliott's Conflated?

BL: It’s a similar dilemma here for Team Conflated. The differences are Conflated is already in the Gold Cup and he won a better race than Eldorado Allen did when winning the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at the DRF, even if it wasn’t a vintage renewal.

It’s no surprise to hear murmurings of a Ryanair bid. His owners sponsor the race and he won the Irish Gold Cup thanks in part to kicking off a slower gallop, so he’d have a chance there.

But I’d let him have a crack at the Gold Cup. Gigginstown don’t have a contender for the race with Delta Work failing to rediscover his form and this horse has improved massively since the hood has been removed.

He used to race freely, but he’s channelling his energy reserves perfectly now and I think he’ll stay. He’d be a player in the big one for me. It’ll be interesting, as I’m sure Gordon Elliott would rather him go for the Ryanair seeing as he has Galvin for this race. That Elliott-O’Leary dynamic could be tested once again...

MB: I think Linfoot has just about nailed it.

Having said that, Eddie O’Leary spoke about doubts around Conflated getting the extended three and a quarter miles of the Gold Cup on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast recently so I can imagine the trainer and owner eventually coming to a Ryanair conclusion.

I had him in mind as a potential Ryanair dark horse when previewing the race in January but couldn’t have foreseen the subsequent Irish Gold Cup win. I’m not convinced that form is worth a huge amount and, given this horse’s unpredictable tendencies in the past, he’ll be one I’m looking to oppose no matter in which race he runs.

Give us a curveball suggestion that might get connections thinking twice...

MB: Dan Skelton has made my ears prick in a couple of interviews over the past week, featuring the following: “I have a theory that when it starts raining, it’s going to keep raining and I could just envisage a scenario where Cheltenham’s very, very soft…”

I’m not totally sure upon what this theory is grounded but he presumably wouldn’t mind biblical scenes on Gold Cup day when Protektorat bids to give the ambitious trainer a first taste of success in the Festival’s big one.

Testing ground isn’t a given of course - far from it - but you wouldn’t be wild about many of them towards the top of the market if it did rain Festival week, and I’m half-hoping Willie Mullins rolls the dice with Franco De Port.

He failed to complete on his first go at three miles last spring but ran a massive race in what looked a seriously strong renewal of the Thyestes last month (replay below), just edged out by Longhouse Poet to whom he was conceding lumps of weight, and I reckon we can safely scrap Franco De Port's pitiful Savills Chase effort on relatively quick ground around Leopardstown earlier in the campaign.

At 100/1 in places, he might just be able to hit the frame in an open Gold Cup – especially if weatherman Skelton has read the signs correctly.

BL: After finishing third behind Edwardstone in the Kingmaker at Warwick it feels like the Grand Annual became the likely port of call for Venetia Williams’ Brave Seasca.

Nudged out to 33s for the Sporting Life Arkle on the back of the defeat, he’s 8/1 for the handicap and off a mark of 146 he’ll go there with a big chance.

However, I thought he kept tabs on Edwardstone nicely enough considering the livelier ground won’t have played to his strengths and those revised prices are tempting in the hope we get a load of rain before the Festival (let's hope weather sage Skelton is right, then).

He’s won his soft-ground chases with ease this season and there could be loads more to come from him in those sort of conditions, so I wouldn’t rule him out of a bold Arkle bid just yet, even if the markets are suggesting it looks highly unlikely.

More from Sporting Life

• Cheltenham Festival 2022
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.