Cheltenham Festival Statistics | Record of front-runners
Adam Houghton reveals another key stat to keep in mind for the Cheltenham Festival.
KEY STAT
28.57% – the percentage of steeplechases run on the New Course at the Cheltenham Festival to have been won by front-runners in the last 10 years
The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British steeplechases since the start of the 2016/17 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 23.31% and celebrating a profit of over 4,700 points at BSP.
By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British steeplechases during the same period have a strike rate of 9.08%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 6.37%.
- Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.
It’s worth pointing out that these figures can vary drastically from one course to the next. At one end of the spectrum there is the steeplechase track at Kempton Park, where front-runners have a strike rate of 31.94% since the start of the 2016/17 season, and at the other end there is the steeplechase track at Bangor-on-Dee, where front-runners have a strike rate of just 17.72% for the same period.
When looking at the overall data, Cheltenham appears to have far more in common with Bangor-on-Dee than it does Kempton Park.
For context, front-runners have a strike rate of 18.84% in all steeplechases run at Cheltenham since the start of the 2016/17 season, though that alone doesn’t tell the whole story given that there are two very different tracks at Cheltenham, the Old Course and the New Course.
The main differences between them are that the New Course has a tricky downhill fence and a longer run-in for steeplechases than the Old Course, serving to put the emphasis more on stamina. The first two days of the Cheltenham Festival are staged on the Old Course before the action moves to the New Course for the final two days of the meeting.
In this article, we’ll be using data spanning 10 years and 130 steeplechases run at the Festival – excluding the 10 renewals of the Cross Country Chase run on its own separate course – to see where the various winners came from in their races, or what EPFs they recorded.
A total of 60 steeplechases have been run on the Old Course at the Cheltenham Festival in the last 10 years. 16.67% (10/60) of them were won by horses who recorded an EPF of 1, including last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase in which Put The Kettle On disputed the lead throughout and found plenty when challenged to follow up her victory in the Arkle achieved in similar fashion 12 months earlier.
Front-runners weren’t the most prolific category of horse in those 60 races, however. Far from it, in fact, as horses who recorded an EPF of 2 (prominent) or 3 (midfield) both won a greater proportion of those 60 races. Horses who raced prominently won 33.33% (20/60) of them, while horses who raced in mid-division won another 30.00% (18/60).
That leaves us with just 12 winners yet to be accounted for, 11 of which – 18.33% of the overall total – recorded an EPF of 4. That makes Minella Rocco, winner of the National Hunt Chase in 2016, unique as the only horse in 10 years to win a steeplechase on the Old Course at the Cheltenham Festival after being held up right at the back of the field.
So, the obvious conclusion is that you don’t want to be too far off the pace in steeplechases run on the Old Course at the Festival, even if front-runners haven’t been quite so dominant in these races as might typically be expected.
That brings us on to the New Course, the scene of 70 steeplechases staged at the Cheltenham Festival in the last 10 years.
Interestingly, front-runners fared a lot better in these races than they did on the Old Course, winning 28.57% (20/70) of them, a greater proportion than for any other category of horse. Those who raced in midfield are next best at 24.29% (17/70), ahead of those who raced prominently at 17.14% (12/70), towards rear at 15.71% (11/70) and in rear at 14.29% (10/70).
Out of seven steeplechases run on the New Course at last year’s Festival, three of them were won by horses who recorded an EPF of 1, namely Allaho (Ryanair Chase), The Shunter (Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase) and Colreevy (Mares’ Chase). Two of the other four winners, Chantry House (Marsh Novices’ Chase) and Minella Indo (Cheltenham Gold Cup), recorded an EPF of 2.
There is more evidence to suggest that horses who lead or race prominently have been seen to even better advantage in these races recently than they had in previous years.
For example, when focusing on the results of the 49 steeplechases staged on the New Course at the Cheltenham Festival in just the last seven years, the percentage of winners who recorded an EPF of 1 jumps up to 30.61% (15/49). The percentage of winners who recorded an EPF of 2 also sees a significant increase at 24.45% (12/49).
Compare this with the record of horses who raced in mid-division or further back during that period and we see a drop off in performance across the board. The percentage of winners who recorded an EPF of 3 is down slightly to 22.45% (11/49), leaving 14.29% (7/49) who recorded an EPF of 4 and just 8.16% (4/49) who recorded an EPF of 5.
Away from the Festival, nine steeplechases have been staged on the New Course at Cheltenham so far this season, six at the two-day International Meeting in December and three at the New Year’s Day fixture. Out of those nine races, six of the winners recorded an EPF of 1 or 2 to highlight that it’s not just at the Festival where front-runners/prominent racers have been favoured.
Of course, in some of those instances a supposed bias can be partly explained. My Drogo, for example, was always likely to be a class apart from his rivals when winning a novice chase at the International Meeting, underlined by an SP of 9/2-on.
The Racing Post Gold Cup won by Coole Cody on the same card provided a clearer illustration of the challenges faced by horses coming from mid-division or further back, particularly in big-field handicap chases. Coole Cody made all to land the spoils by two lengths from Zanza, the only one of the principals to come from the rear of the field as Midnight Shadow and Fusil Raffles – both of whom recorded an EPF of 2 – completed the frame.
The first four pulled over eight lengths clear of the rest and most experienced race-readers would conclude that the patiently-ridden runners weren’t seen to best effect. Certainly, something to bear in mind when the Cheltenham Festival comes around less than eight weeks from now.
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